Originally written March 29, 2013 on Baseball Professor:
Now that’s what I’m talking about Andrew McCutchen! In his age-25 season ‘Cutch finally arrived to fantasy stardom by belting 31 HR and raising his batting average to a robust .327. Now that his stock has skyrocketed into the top 10, the question is—is he worth it?Well, by our calculations, in order for him to be worth your top 10 pick he would have to put up similar counting stats as last year, but he can afford a dip in his batting average. This is good news because he most definitely will not hit .320 again.Let’s start off with a table:Just by looking at these numbers you could conclude that his line from April through July was an aberration and his post-July numbers were much more on par with his 2011 stat line. Here’s why his first four months are an indication that McCutchen’s breakout is for real.A lot of his first round value is tied into whether his 30-homer power is for real and I believe it is. In 2010 McCutchen hit 16 HR, but none of them went to the opposite field and i...

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