Found March 17, 2012 on Fantasy Baseball 365:
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Based on my analysis and current ADP data, these are the players that I feel are overvalued or too risky to take on draft day. ADP in parenthesis. Justin Verlander (9) – There’s nothing wrong with Justin Verlander the pitcher, his stuff and strikeout rate speaks for themselves, but I’m not going to spend a first round pick on a pitcher coming off of his best season, especially when said season came along with a career low .236 BABIP. Jacoby Ellsbury (9) – I do believe that Ellsbury’s power spike was somewhat for real. He changed the plane of his swing, which resulted in less ground balls – he had been a predominant ground ball hitter in the past – and resulted in more line drives and fly balls. That being said, his swing is still more conducive to line-drives than it is home runs unlike, say, Jose Bautista, who tries to launch baseballs into the stands every chance he gets. My biggest concern is that Ellsbury ran less last season and had by far the worst stolen base success rat...
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