Predicting the NL Central race as contenders head into home stretch

With less than 20% of the regular season remaining, the Milwaukee Brewers hold a four-game lead over the second-place Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central, but it is a three-team race. The third-place Reds are only six games back.

While the Brewers have an 83.9% chance to win the division, according to FanGraphs, the Cubs are playing some of their best baseball as of late and should not be counted out. 

Here is an assessment of each team and a prediction for who will win the NL Central title: 

Milwaukee Brewers (73-57) 

The division leaders for 90 days and the favorites, the Brewers are in first for a reason. Other than May, they are yet to have a monthly winning percentage below .500. They have increased their winning percentage from .538 at the All-Star break to .562 through Sunday. 

Of the three teams in contention for the division title, Milwaukee has had the best record in August at 16-7, just edging out the Cubs who possess a record of 16-8.

The Brewers' pitching has helped them to that record. Their starting rotation features starters Wade Miley (6-3, 3.18 ERA), 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.65), Freddy Peralta (11-8, 3.95 ERA) and Adrian Houser (5-4, 4.58 ERA). 

But the bullpen is their magnum opus. Devin Williams (49.1 innings, 1.46 ERA) leads the way as one of the best in the game, while Joel Payamps (59.1 innings, 2.12 ERA), Hoby Milner (52.2 innings, 2.22 ERA) and Bryse Wilson (64 innings, 2.95 ERA) do more than hold their own.

While not the featured aspect of the team, left fielder Christian Yelich (.815 OPS) and catcher William Contreras (.814 OPS) carry a relatively lackluster offense. 

Aiding their push, the Brewers have an easy strength of schedule (.485), according to Tankathon. They also play the Cubs six times in their remaining games, with the Brewers leading the season series, 4-3. 

Chicago Cubs (69-61) 

Through Sunday, Chicago had a 15.1% chance of winning the division but maintains a 66.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.

While the Cubs have worse pitching than Milwaukee, they have better offense. 

Their pitching staff is led by NL Cy Young Award contender Justin Steele (14-3, 2.80 ERA) in the rotation and Adbert Alzolay (58 innings, 2.64 ERA) and Mark Leiter Jr. (55.2, 2.75 ERA) in the bullpen. While Marcus Stroman (10-8, 3.85 ERA) has looked strong at points in 2023, he has had several injuries over the past couple of months and is on the 15-day IL, putting his ability to help the team down the stretch into question. 

Center fielder Cody Bellinger’s resurgence is one of the primary reasons the Cubs are in contention. But his surrounding cast has been one of the strongest in the division. Shortstop Dansby Swanson (.758 OPS), third baseman Patrick Wisdom (.783 OPS), left fielder Ian Happ (.770 OPS), right fielder Seiya Suzuki (.786 OPS) and designated hitter Christopher Morel (.807 OPS) have each had respectable seasons. 

Adding to an already-strong lineup, infielder Jeimer Candelario (.894 OPS) has sparked the offense into a new gear since coming over from the Nationals at the trade deadline. 

With a .506 strength of schedule remaining, per Tankathon, the Cubs must play the NL-best Atlanta Braves (84-45) but offset that with a series against the Colorado Rockies (49-81) and Pittsburgh Pirates (58-73). 

Cincinnati Reds (68-64) 

After spending 26 days atop the division, the Reds have hit a wall with a 9-15 record in August — a less-than-ideal time to have their worst play of the season.

The rookie trio of shortstop Matt McLain (.864 OPS), first baseman Spencer Steer (.814) and infielder Elly De La Cruz (.741) have taken the league by storm with their production, but they are not enough to carry a below-average rotation past their division foes. 

Alexis Díaz (56.2 innings, 2.22 ERA) locks down the ninth inning when he is given the lead, but that has not happened recently. One positive factor for the Reds is their weaker .484 strength of schedule remaining, says Tankathon. 

Still, their recent struggles and poor rotation will hold the Reds back for the division crown that will likely become a two-team race by mid-September. 

Prediction 

Based on their weaker strength of schedule and elite pitching, the Brewers will win the division by at least five games, clinching the season series against the Cubs and the third seed as the third-best division winner.

Chicago will still make the playoffs as the sixth seed, creating a division rivalry in the wild-card round against the Brewers, where the Cubs will avenge their season series loss with an upset. 

CBS Sports gave the Cubs as their pick to win the division in early August despite then-+200 odds while the Brewers had -105 odds, citing their hot streak and the team getting healthy down the stretch.