After missing last year the welcome pangs of nervousness have come back with the Giants back in the playoffs.
In the National League Division series the Giants face the NL Central Champion Reds. The Reds are a very good team and this series shouldn't be easy for either team.
Here is the statistical breakdown for each team:
AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Giants 0.269 0.327 0.397 0.315 99 Reds 0.251 0.315 0.411 0.314 93
ERA- FIP- xFIP- Giants 97 101 101 Reds 83 93 97
The Giants have the edge on offense, while the Reds have the edge in pitching. Neither edge is huge and at least based on the eyeball test it looks like they might balance themselves out.
Next let's move on to the projection. In case you forgot or haven’t seen the explanation, here is a quick description of how the model works:I start by estimating the runs scored and allowed for each team given the starting pitcher, bullpen, defense a...