Projecting the 2009 Cubs: Paul Bako and Koyie Hill

2009 PROJECTIONS Rich Harden | Carlos Zambrano | Ryan Dempster | Ted Lilly | Sean Marshall | Kevin Gregg | Aaron Heilman | Chad Gaudin | Carlos Marmol | Angel Guzman | Neal Cotts | Luis Vizcaino | Kevin Hart | Jeff Samardzija | Geovany Soto | Derrek Lee | Mike Fontenot | Aramis Ramirez | Micah Hoffpauir | Aaron Miles | Reed Johnson | Joey Gathright | Paul Bako | Koyie Hill PAUL BAKO STATS Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus The Cubs have 2 options for the back-up catching position in Paul Bako and Koyie Hill. Bako was signed a contract this offseason for just over $700,000, but isn't guaranteed a roster spot. Koyie Hill could impress enough to win that job and the Cubs would only pay 20% of Bako's contract. For the projections below I'm using 157 PA for each of them since we estimated Bako's PT at just that. It doesn't seem he has the job locked up so it's worth comparing him to Hill. Also, the defensive numbers I'm using are based only on 2008 and they are from Colin Wyers' work on The Hardball Times (spreadsheet available in the article) so small sample size applies here. Paul Bako PA HR BB K AVG OBP SLG CAIRO 242 3 23 62 0.217 0.293 0.299 MARCELS 386 6 34 97 0.223 0.295 0.322 JAMES 345 4 33 96 0.203 0.282 0.284 CHONE 320 4 31 84 0.199 0.28 0.284 PECOTA 153 2 15 36 0.234 0.31 0.332 CBS 225 2 20 62 0.212 0.283 0.286 THT 328 5 32 83 0.235 0.314 0.336 AVERAGE 305 4 29 80 0.217 0.293 0.306 Per 700 PAs Pos PA OBP SLG Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR Bako CA 157 .293 .306 -3.78 0.00 1.25 0.62 2.00 0.09 $0.5 0.0 KOYIE HILL STATS Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus Koyie Hill PA HR BB K AVG OBP SLG CAIRO 277 7 19 47 0.239 0.294 0.384 MARCELS 222 5 18 44 0.227 0.295 0.364 ZIPS 275 6 19 52 0.224 0.28 0.348 CHONE 390 9 34 83 0.229 0.301 0.366 PECOTA 376 8 27 93 0.22 0.28 0.357 THT 371 12 29 73 0.255 0.317 0.425 AVERAGE 331 8 25 69 0.233 0.295 0.375 Per 700 PAs Pos PA OBP SLG Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR K. Hill CA 157 .295 .375 -2.31 0.00 1.25 -0.20 2.00 0.74 $1.2 0.2 Koyie Hill is the better catcher here. +/- $WAR: $118.35 million Running total for team projected wins (updated as I do each profile) Replacement level team: 48.6 wins Kevin Gregg: 1.08 WAR Rich Harden: 5.75 WAR Carlos Zambrano: 3.65 WAR Ryan Dempster: 3.42 WAR Ted Lilly: 2.92 WAR Sean Marshall: 1.84 WAR Aaron Heilman: 0.61 WAR Chad Gaudin: 0.52 WAR Carlos Marmol: 1.41 WAR Angel Guzman: 0.11 WAR Neal Cotts: 0.31 WAR Luis Vizcaino: 0.42 WAR Kevin Hart: -0.06 WAR Jeff Samardzija: -0.13 WAR Geovany Soto: 5.3 WAR Derrek Lee: 3.4 WAR Mike Fontenot: 4.0 WAR Aramis Ramirez: 5.1 WAR Micah Hoffpauir: 0.7 WAR Aaron Miles: 0.3 WAR Reed Johnson: 0.8 WAR Joey Gathright: 0.4 WAR Paul Bako: 0.0 WAR Koyie Hill: 0.2 WAR TOTAL: 90.4 wins