Ranking the 10 best AL Central starting pitchers entering 2024

The Minnesota Twins had one of the best starting rotations in baseball last season but they could have some challengers in 2024.

While the Twins rotation remains strong, there are other talented arms in the American League Central that could challenge them for the best in the division and even take another leap to become one of the best rotations in baseball this summer.

So where do Pablo López, Joe Ryan and others rank in the division? Here are the 10 best starters in the American League Central entering the 2024 season.

10. Joe Ryan (Twins)

Twins fans may expect Ryan to be higher on this list but his biggest issue is consistency. Ryan got off to a fast start in 2023, going 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA in his first 15 starts, but he went 3-6 with a 6.62 ERA in his final 14 starts.

Ryan worked through a groin injury that may have had to do with his decline in the second half of the season. But his numbers experienced a similar drop off during his rookie season when he went 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA in his first 15 starts and 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA in his final 12 starts.

The next step for Ryan to becoming an elite starter is to push through that wall. Staying healthy wouldn't hurt – as he missed time in 2022 after testing positive for COVID-19 – but so would keeping the ball in the park after allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings last season.

9. Matt Manning (Tigers)

There are a lot of new names in Detroit's rotation this season but Manning has been one of the starters that has improved for the Tigers in the last few seasons.

Manning got off to a rough start, going 4-7 with a 5.80 ERA in 18 starts in 2023 but showed promise going 7-7 with a 3.51 ERA in 27 starts over the past two seasons. Like Ryan, Manning has been held back by injuries including breaking his right foot twice after being hit by line drives last season, but he also suffered from hard contact as his 10.9% barrel rate ranked in the ninth percentile last season.

Manning had better luck with a 6.2% barrel rate in 2022, but he'll need to improve in other areas if he wants to help the Tigers catch the Twins in 2024.

8. Logan Allen (Guardians)

Cleveland continues to be a hot bed for starting pitching and Logan Allen was one of several rookies to emerge for the Guardians last season.

Allen went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 24 starts and had a solid strikeout rate of 8.5 batters per nine innings. While most of his metrics were average, Allen's slider and changeup offered a run value of +5 that ranked in the 91st percentile of starters.

Allen will need to improve on his 28.4% chase rate and 24% whiff rate next season, but should be a solid arm for Cleveland.

7. Michael Wacha (Royals)

Wacha is the first free agent addition to make his way onto this list and is coming off a solid season going 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA in 24 starts for the San Diego Padres in 2023.

Wacha isn't a flame-thrower as his 92 mph fastball shows but he limits hard contact with a 35.5% hard-hit rate (75th percentile) and an average exit velocity of 88.1 mph (70th percentile).

At 32 years old, Wacha has become a journeyman at this point of his career, as the Royals will be his fifth team in the past five seasons. But the Royals gave him a two-year, $32 million contract to solidify their rotation with hopes that he continues to pitch well in the American League. 

6. Shane Bieber (Guardians)

The elder statesman and ace of the Guardians' pitching staff, Bieber has been the topic of several trade discussions this offseason. But inflammation in his pitching elbow has cooled those talks as he looks ready to return to Cleveland.

Bieber pitched well for Cleveland last year, posting a 5-6 record with a 3.77 ERA. While those weren't bad numbers, opposing hitters were able to square him up, logging an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph (second percentile) and a 47.8% hard hit rate (third percentile).

Bieber is still able to get ground balls at a 47.5% rate and he only walked 6.4% of batters last season, but he needs to find a way to miss bats if he wants to get back to the top of the divisional hierarchy.

5. Dylan Cease (White Sox)

Cease took a step back after winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2022 but remains a strong ace for a White Sox team that could be in rebuild mode.

Cease went 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA last season and his analytics show a decline in his performance. His fastball went from 96.8 mph in 2022 to 95.6 mph in 2023 and his whiff rate dropped from 33.2% in 2022 to 31% in 2023.

Both of those numbers don't sound an alarm on the 28-year-old but they were a big reason why Chicago went from division champion in 2022 to an afterthought in 2023. If Cease pitches well, he could be a trade chip in the White Sox rebuild ahead of his pending free agency after the 2025 season, but for now he'll look to revive the Sox's chances in 2024.

4. Bailey Ober (Twins)

It feels odd ranking Ober ahead of former Cy Young Award winners and All-Stars but his 2023 performance was a breakout that could mean bigger things in 2024.

Ober's game is getting batters to chase and limiting walks and he did both in 2023. Ober's 33.5% chase rate ranked in the 91st percentile of starters last season and his 5% walk rate was in the 93rd percentile. Batters also had a low hard-hit rate (35.7%) against Ober last season as he went 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA.

The Twins will count on Ober as they look to soften the blow of losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in free agency. He looks like a pitcher who is ascending and could do more in his second full season in the majors.

3. Tarik Skubal (Tigers)

If you're going by the "there's a lot of red in there" metric that Carlos Correa used to analyze Tyler Mahle after looking at his Statcast page in 2022, Skubal might not only be one of the top pitchers in the division, but one of the best in baseball.

Skubal's Baseball Savant page is loaded with red including a 32.9% strikeout rate (96th percentile) and a 4.5% walk rate (96th percentile). The left-hander also posts a 33.5% chase rate (91st percentile) and his 2.30 expected ERA led all of baseball last season.

The only thing holding Skubal back is his injury history which includes undergoing Tommy John Surgery while pitching at Seattle University in 2016 and flexor tendon repair surgery in August of 2022. But after debuting on July 4, Skubal had the best performance of his career, going 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts.

If Skubal can avoid the injured list, he could be one of the top pitchers in the division in 2024.

2. Tanner Bibee (Guardians)

If you guessed which starting pitcher led the division in wins above replacement last season, you probably wouldn't guess Bibee. But after a strong rookie season, Bibee racked up a 3.6 WAR and looks ready to take another step this season.

Bibee went 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts for the Guardians last season and finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Fueled by a 6.1% barrel rate (80th percentile) he also amounted for a pitching run value of +23 that ranked in the 97th percentile of major league starters.

You could make an argument that Bibee could be ranked at the top of this list but for now, he's No.2 and a name that could make a major leap in 2024.

1. Pablo López (Twins)

The Twins ended a decades-long search for an ace when they acquired López in the Luis Arráez trade last season. López went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA in 32 starts in his first season in Minnesota while earning his first All-Star appearance and finishing seventh in Cy Young Award voting.

López also saw the type of leap that others on this list are hoping to take, seeing a big gain in his strikeout rate, chase rate and whiff rate from 2022.