Red Sox have discussed contract extension with starting pitcher

The Red Sox have reportedly agreed to an extension with young right-hander Brayan Bello but seem to have at least some interest in hammering out another. Righty Tanner Houck told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he has discussed an extension with the club, but nothing is imminent. He had previously discussed the matter with the club a couple of years ago, with nothing developing at that time.

Houck, 28 in June, has posted some intriguing results in the majors but hasn’t yet fully established himself as a viable starter. He has thrown 256 innings over the past four seasons with a 3.86 ERA. His 24.9% strikeout rate and 51% ground-ball rate are both a few ticks better than par, while his 8.8% walk rate is right around average.

But last year’s 106 innings pitched were a career high at the big league level, his first time getting over the 70 line. Missing time last year wasn’t his fault, as he was hit in the face by a comebacker and suffered a facial fracture. That injury required surgery and kept Houck on the injured list for over two months. That’s obviously fluky in nature but it still prevented him from getting to a full starter’s workload. In 2022, he also missed time due to lower back inflammation which required surgery, capping him at 60 innings for the year.

Beyond the fact that Houck hasn’t fully built up his workload, there’s also the fact that his results have been better out of the bullpen. For his career, he has a 4.17 as a starter but a 2.68 mark as a reliever, though the latter figure is in a fairly small sample size of just 53 2/3 innings and his peripherals are actually fairly close. His 25.9% strikeout rate as a reliever is just barely higher than his 24.6% clip as a starter, whereas his 9.5% walk rate as a reliever is actually higher than his 8.6% clip as a starter. The wide difference in the ERAs could be down to a bit of luck, as he has a .298 BABIP as a starter but a .274 out of the ’pen, in addition to having a 69.4% strand rate when starting games as opposed to 77.3% as a reliever. His 3.70 and 3.12 FIP as a starter and reliever respectively suggest the difference may not be so wide.

On the other hand, he has significant splits, with lefties having hit him at a .251/.343/.420 rate thus far compared to a line of .214/.282/.283 from righties. If that continues, he might be better served working in a bullpen role where he can be more easily protected from exposure to opposing lefty hitters.

Houck should get plenty of opportunity to prove himself in the rotation this year. The Red Sox came into the winter looking to upgrade the starting staff but haven’t done so. They traded away Chris Sale and signed Lucas Giolito, but the latter now seems like he may be slated for a significant injury absence due to a partial UCL tear and flexor tendon strain.

Assuming Giolito will at least miss the start of the season, the Boston rotation consists of Bello, Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock. Pivetta is an impending free agent and could wind up on the trade block if the Sox are out of contention this summer. Guys like Cooper Criswell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are also on the 40-man roster but none of that trio has even 50 innings pitched in the big leagues yet.

Given Houck’s current status, it may be difficult to line up on a deal. Since he’s unproven as a starter over a full season, the club may not want to make a significant commitment to him. From Houck’s perspective, he may not want to take a low-ball offer at this moment. If he takes advantage of the open rotation in Boston and puts together a strong season in 2024, he could increase his earning power significantly.

He currently has two years and 100 days of service time. That means he is slated to qualify for arbitration for the first time after 2024 and is on pace for free agency after 2027, which will be his age-31 season. Looking to Boston’s long-term payroll picture, Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026.