Report: AJ Smith-Shawver is "all but untouchable" via trade

Confirming what we all pretty much knew, beat writer David O'Brien of The Athletic reported ($) late on Friday that prospect pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver is "all but untouchable" in trade talks. 

In the article, which was about the need to add multiple starting pitchers this offseason, O'Brien was discussing potential trade acquisitions by Atlanta and highlighted both the lack of elite trade chips in the system and the unwillingness to deal Smith-Shawver in any deal. 

The Braves don’t have many elite prospects in their minor-league system and made clear to teams last summer that Smith-Shawver was all but untouchable. But it’s possible they could do a trade package featuring another pitching prospect and position prospect along with infielder Vaughn Grissom, who has excellent bat-to-ball skills but doesn’t have a place to play in Atlanta’s lineup unless they convert him to left field by next season.

O'Brien's reporting confirms what we said about Smith-Shawver's status - when discussing potential trade pieces, we made it clear that AJSS and Hurston Waldrep, our top two Braves prospects in our farm system rankings, shouldn't be on the table in a trade for a starting pitcher:

Atlanta's pitching-heavy drafts of the last few years means that the Braves have plenty of not-yet Rule 5 eligible arms to package in a deal, as well. There will be plenty of arms available if Atlanta wants to refuse to trade AJ Smith-Shawver and 2023 draftee Hurston Waldrep (which is the correct move - I wouldn't move either one, honestly).

The need to add a postseason starter

Mirroring what we've said on the podcast recently, O'Brien also discussed Atlanta's need to add a potential postseason starter this offseason even if Morton returns for his age-40 season. 

(Atlanta's all but guaranteed to bring him back - the question is whether Morton wants to return for another season or retire. Interestingly, O'Brien suggested that the Braves could work out a deal to bring Morton back at a lower salary - he suggests $15M.)

Looking at the NLDS, O'Brien mentioned that Atlanta's pitching staff was again "outpitched" by an injury-diminished Braves rotation for a 2nd straight season. 

But acquiring that pitcher is easier said than done. 

While Blake Snell and Aaron Nola may prove to be too expensive for Atlanta, Sonny Gray may be an option, once we discussed here. Complicating that is the possibility of Gray receiving a qualifying offer - a one year deal at a fixed price of $20.5M that guarantees his current team a draft pick in compensation were he to decline the offer and sign elsewhere. 

As a team that paid into the luxury tax in 2023, the Braves would face the loss of both its 2nd and 5th-highest picks in the 2024 MLB Draft if they were to sign a player with a qualifying offer, as well as a loss of $1M from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. 

Players who have either received a qualifying offer in the past are ineligible to receive one again, as are players who did not spend the entire season with their current club (midseason trade acquisitions or waiver claims) are ineligible for qualifying offers and would have no penalty attached were they to be signed. 

It feels inevitable that Atlanta pushes to acquire a postseason starter this offseason. The question is how, and at what cost. 

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