Rubber Match - Ted Lilly vs Homer Bailey

Saturday saw the Cubs bring their four game winning streak to a close. It ended despite coming back from 5-0 deficit against the Reds. In a game marred by poor defense by the Cubs, Carlos Marmol was just wild enough, and gave up two hits, to give the game back to the visitors from Ohio, 7-5.

Ted Lilly and Homer Bailey will match-up in Sunday's rubber match. Lilly's been great lately, doing his normal throw-strikes get-fly-balls routine. Bailey has been roughed up in 2009, as he was in 2008 and 2007 (in limited stints) despite being, at one time, a much hyped prospect.

Bailey has shown good velocity in 2009, better than years past, but has yet to develop into anything more than a back of the rotation guy with a 95 mph fastball. This year, he's been throwing everything harder. His slider is back in the upper 80s, after a dip into the mid 80s last year. Bailey's change-up is also thrown harder, and less often.








As you can see, when it comes to Homer Bailey, there's not exactly a lot of 2007 data. Or 2008 for that matter. Rolling the years back together...



Counts#ChangeCurveSinkerFastballSlider
first6386%10%4%72%8%
ahead68615%12%3%55%15%
even43013%13%3%58%13%
behind6226%5%6%76%7%
full984%9%3%82%2%
247410%10%4%66%10%





cfx#SwingWhiffB:CSIWZChaseWatch
Change2430.5350.2858.00.4440.3410.185
Curve2380.3780.1891.80.4790.2500.474
Sinker980.3780.2162.50.4590.1700.356
Fastball16410.4510.1272.00.5690.2160.364
Slider2540.5000.1733.90.4760.3080.289
24740.4540.1582.30.5340.2430.352







cfx#nkSLGGB%FB%PU%LD%HR/FL%
Change2430.63434%27%7%32%4%
Curve2380.60550%29%3%18%11%
Sinker980.28650%36%0%14%0%
Fastball16410.51342%28%8%22%8%
Slider2540.74636%35%2%27%15%
24740.55341%29%6%23%9%







cfx#rv100rv100E
Change2431.201.04
Curve2380.890.17
Sinker98-0.850.42
Fastball16410.360.54
Slider2544.042.70
24740.820.77