Minnesota had a respectable rotation in 2010. Led by Franscisco Liriano, who’s 6 WAR season was good for third among American League starters, groundball machine Carl Pavano and Brian Duensings’s fluky 2.63 ERA, the Twins took over the AL Central lead in the middle of August and never looked back. Scott Baker was virtually an afterthought last year, pitching to the tune of a 4.49 ERA while giving up 23 homeruns in 170.1 innings. He ended up missing most of September with an elbow injury, which resulted in offseason surgery.
Coming into this year, all indications were that Baker would have to fight for his spot in the rotation, although it seemed as if he had an advantage over Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn. Baker had a solid spring training and broke camp in the rotation for a team that seemed poised to once again win the AL Central crown. Despite being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, Baker was one of the few bright spots on a Twins team filled with disappointments. He has been Minnesota’s best starter and it isn’t particularly close. Baker has a 3.21 ERA and an 8.19 k/9 ratio, which would both be career bests, despite having two bad starts before being shut down with recurring elbow soreness.
Since Baker probably won’t be making another start this season, what do his numbers mean for next year? You’re probably thinking that something has got to give. There must be some underlying numbers that point to an ugly regression right? Not so fast. Baker sports a BABIP of .299. Certainly lower than last year’s mark of .323, but not quite the .276 mark that he posted in 2009. Since Baker pitches in a park where all home runs come to die (just ask Joe Mauer), xFIP is probably the way to go. Baker’s xFIP comes in at 3.61, which would be a career best by a significant margin. All this would indicate Baker is due to come back to earth slightly, but it isn’t a terrible sign. However, there is one number that really stands out. Baker’s strand rate of 73.3% would be among the top ten in the American League and is 6% higher than his career average.
There are two ways of looking at Baker’s year. The first is that he pitched over his head and his numbers will even out next season. That stance would seem to be pretty valid, considering Baker’s impressive strand rate and the fact that his hr/9 has fallen from 1.22 last year to 1.03 in 2011. One could also argue that it would be hard for Baker to maintain his 8.19 k/9 rate, since he doesn’t possess a power arsenal. In fact, you could say that his decline has begun after Baker got shelled in his last couple starts in addition to the fact that he can’t seem to get rid of his elbow issues.
The other argument is simply that Baker has finally put it together. One thing that has contributed greatly to his success is that Baker did a much better job of spotting his fastball. Baker has produced a wFB/C of 1.38 compared to last year’s mark of -0.53. The same can be said for the effectiveness of his changeup. Baker’s current wCH/C mark of .53 is more than a slight improvement from the -0.98 he posted last season. While I can talk about pitch selection for hours, the simplest yet most effective point might simply be this: Baker has done a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Fewer home runs allowed leads to a greater chance of winning baseball games.
So, what lies in store for Scott Baker? Based off his numbers this season, a slight regression is probably in store. It seems unlikely that he will maintain his impressive k/9 rate and improved hr/9 rate simply because Baker is a guy that pitches to contact. He doesn’t have a 97 mph heater to blow by people. Baker’s recent elbow troubles are also beginning to loom large after continued problems over the last two seasons. Overall, I’d expect Baker to finish with an ERA somewhere between his current and career averages, with slightly lower strikeout rates. However, if he implodes like last season Minnesota can kiss its 2012 playoff hopes goodbye because they will probably be leaning on him heavily next year.
-Cohen
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