Okay … so if I were a betting man, I would put money on the Orioles bringing back Cesar Izturis. All of the noise coming out of the warehouse and the clubhouse is that Buck loves Izzy (which, notably, calls into question some of the things I think I like about Buck – primarily, that he gets it – but I suppose that it’s more important that the front office gets “it” than the manager), so I absolutely think Izzy will see another year at short for the O’s, representing little more than an automatic out in our batting order. [Note: if I were feeling industrious, I would go into the national league stats for the past few years and make a list of all of the pitchers who have out-hit Izzy in those years, but I'm not feeling it right now.]
But they should not bring him back.
They should address the immediate future of the position – the next 2-4 years (and certainly the next 1-2 years). Thankfully, we finally have a few middle infielder type guys in the lower minors who appear as if they could make the big leagues in the next 3-4 years and be legitimate, high-quality players. I’ll go on record and say that if Manny Machado is in the big leagues before the end of three years, they will have rushed him and irreparably harmed his development, irreparably have prevented him from being the player that he could be if brought along slowly and allowed to develop the skills necessary to excel in professional baseball … so needless to say, I favor the slow approach as far as Machado is concerned. Ditto Jonathan Schoop.
Notably, other honorable mentions in terms of guys who eventually could profile as home-grown legitimate big-league middle infielders include Greg Miclat (who has been slow to catch on in pro ball, but who I still feel has some decent skills and could develop into a very solid big-league player – but he needs to start doing good things soon), Mychal Givens (very raw, another guy who should be moved along very slowly), LJ Hoes (who is one of my pet favorites because of his strike zone discipline), and Ryan Adams (who had a very good year at Bowie this year and has caused a lot of folks to take notice). So, I honestly feel like our 2014/15-2020 middle infield is pretty well set – or at least we have done a good job of targeting players who have a good chance of succeeding for that time period.
This brings me, of course, to my next point. It’s not 2014/5. In fact, it’s not even close to 2014/5. By 2014/5, most of the guys we’re bringing along right now will be well out of their rookie contracts and either will have been extended for much more money than they currently are making, or will have moved on in free agency. So, at risk of making a pretty obvious point, and assuming that we would like to capitalize on any of this current boom of young talent (expecting guys like Matusz, Wieters, Bergesen, and Jones will continue to progress into top-quality players, expecting that guys like Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, etc. will continue to develop into the next generation of contributors, etc.) we’re going to have to begin thinking about fielding a team of NINE quality starters … not five, or six, or even seven. Twenty-five quality players on the active roster, all contributors, with no weak links. That starts with addressing the shortstop position.
So let’s leave no mistake here, Cesar Izturis is a weak link, the weakest link. Leave alone that his defense seemingly took a bit of a step backward this year, at least if you buy into UZR/150 (not that he was a poor defender, far from it and he remains an excellent defender, just not the same level of elite that he had been in previous versions of this same conversation), but Cesar Izturis remains, objectively, one of the single worst hitters in all of MLB. He’s absolutely terrible. He can’t get on base and he can’t move runners along with extra-base hits – he makes a LOT of outs, more than just about anyone else in baseball, particularly among “starters” or regular players. I feel like people gloss over this … but he is THAT poor of a hitter. Notably, his .545 ops line (.230/.277/.268) this year is the worst of his career and his three-year trends are negative in virtually every offensive category. He was, objectively, a terrible hitter five years ago, and he’s gotten SIGNIFICANTLY worse. There is absolutely no excuse for bringing him back. There legitimately is a zero percent chance that Robert Andino would not be a more productive player, and I don’t think that Andino will be all the productive of a major leaguer. Even if you are someone who places a priority on defense at the shortstop position, even if you are someone who justifiably has tempered expectations in terms of what constitutes reasonable offensive production for a shortstop, Cesar Izturis absolutely cannot in any way make anyone’s “cut” of people who are acceptable on this team next year, in any capacity.
So … hopefully at this point, we have established (1) that the Orioles have a need for a shortstop over at least the next 2-4 years, and (2) Cesar Izturis does not in any way, shape, or form meet with that need.
What should the Orioles do then? For anyone who has read my rantings and ramblings before, some of this will sound repetitive. I still like a lot of the same guys I liked 2-3 years ago, so I apologize if this is boring and repetitive. I have my pet favorites, guys who can hit AND field, guys who are buy-low kinds of candidates (understanding, of course, that you virtually always have to give something to get something).
First, let’s establish some parameters. What do we expect from a shortstop, for anyone we acquire? Well, virtually anything represents an upgrade offensively, so expectations are somewhat low in that respect. Let’s begin by saying that our shortstop acceptably can hit in the 8-9 slot in the batting order; let’s assume that at this point, the shortstop position is a place where we’re not counting on getting a huge amount of offensive production, but where we can look for some development and progress. (Note: this does NOT mean that playing a career .256/.296/.323 player is acceptable where that player has a ten-season track record and is guaranteed to continue producing at that awful level.) Essentially, what I’m saying here is that given what we have endured for the past 3+ seasons, we have the luxury of low expectations. We can buy low on a prospect, a guy who has succeeded in the minor leagues (at least who has gotten on base and showed discipline/patience at the plate) and who needs MLB at-bats. We can buy low on a slow starter, a guy who has frustrated high expectations with a team that needed/wanted him to do more faster. What I’m saying, is that we can find the shortstop equivalent of Felix Pie … someone with a track record that predicts success but who has – for whatever reason – been deprived of the opportunity. What I’m saying is that we can commit to giving that guy 1000 at-bats over the next two years because he can’t possibly be any worse than what we’ve had for the past three-plus years.
Sure, we could go the Ryan Theriot path if he is non-tendered. (I don’t hate that idea, by the way – he’s been an above-average defensive shortstop for most of his career, he historically has gotten on base fairly well, and he is coming off of a bad year so he likely can be had pretty inexpensively … probably for right around what we’ve been paying Izzy.) But I really like the idea of buying low and giving a younger guy a chance to succeed.
Also, even though this ship has sailed a bit because he has arrived in the big leagues and people have begun to figure out how good he is going to be (and depending on what the Rays want to do with him), there is Sean Rodriguez who is prominently featured among Tampa’s slew of young middle infielders. He is more of a blue-chip kind of guy than the others I will discuss here, and he would take a ton to get – I would say probably something in the Tillman/Arrieta/Britton range. Even at that, he likely is unavailable and would ask too much (given what the rumors have them asking for Brignac and given their notoriously-high asking prices), but I suppose there’s no harm in inquiring as to Rodriguez, Brignac, and I suppose Bartlett (who is fairly comparable to Theriot and JJ Hardy in terms of me not hating him but not loving him).
The other option comes with respect to two notable Japanese shortstops. It is unclear whether either or both of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and/or Hiroyuki Nakajima (who I prefer of the two) will be posted. I absolutely would not mind giving either guy a shot at starting every day, although depending on the posting fee it might make more sense to go the route that I am suggesting here and spend that money improving an offer to Adam Dunn to play first base for the next four years.
I’d like to limit this discussion to the following parameters: (1) guys who have succeeded in the minor leagues – I know this is somewhat subjective but i’m looking for a guy who has shown, at a minimum, good on-base skills and has gotten favorable defensive reviews meaning that he likely can stick at the position in the big leagues; (2) a guy who would not take “the farm” to get, who by most accounts has fallen out of favor with his respective team for a few reasons (including, but not limited to a player being blocked in an organization either by another prospect or by a quality player at the big-league level, a team’s impatience in giving the player time to adjust/develop at the MLB level, the player’s underproduction at the big-league level compared to expectations, etc.).
Notably, the Blue Jays did a GREAT job identifying exactly this person last year, when they traded for Yunel Escobar of the Braves. The O’s didn’t have the sell-high, moderately-competent shortstop (Alex Gonzalez) to send back to the Braves, so it’s not like they missed the boat on that trade, but Atlanta sold very very low on Escobar, who is a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter and was the quintessential out-of-favor, buy-low player.
So … without further ado, let’s talk names: Brandon Wood; Ivan DeJesus, Jr.; Jason Donald; Jed Lowrie; Jeff Bianchi; Justin Sellers. Questionables, secondary choices, for various reasons (most prominently among them being that these guys are farther from the big leagues developmentally and would not be ready to begin the 2011 season), include: Andrew Romine; Jeff Bianchi; Reese Havens; Ryan Flaherty; Hak-Ju Lee … among others.
Anyhow, the first guy who comes to mind is Brandon Wood of the Angels. He still has some value, but he’s the quintessential example of the type of player I’m talking about here. He absolutely has fallen out of favor with the Angels, he simply is running out of time to perform. The Angels perennially consider themselves a playoff contender, and they just don’t have room for an out-of-options guy who hit .146 over 250 at-bats this year. That’s the bad news … that he just hasn’t handled big-league pitching at all – in 450 big league at-bats, he’s hit .169/.198/.260. Scouting reports tend to be conflicted as to his defense, but the general consensus is that he can stick at short in the big leagues (although the Angels moved him to third because Aybar is well entrenched at short for the conceivable future). So why in the world would I want a guy who has hit .170 with no power who has questionable defense? Well … because that guy absolutely DESTROYED the ball at virtually all levels of the minor leagues. His career line over nearly 3000 MiL at-bats amounts to .284/.352/.536. His first crack at high-A ball at age 20 (a good indicator of eventual mlb success) was absolutely stellar; his first crack at AA was similarly good. He has legitimate pop and has had it at all levels, but beyond that he shows pretty solid patience at the plate and gets on base fairly well. Moreover, his 450 at-bats (while not insignificant), have been sporadic. He needs the kind of opportunity that the O’s gave Adam Jones two years ago, the chance to see 500 at-bats in a season, to know that his spot in the lineup does not depend on how he performed the previous day. The guy, despite his MLB failures thus far, can hit. We’d have to give something to get him (because there are bound to be plenty of other teams willing to take the same chance on him), but it would be worth it. Send one or two of our second-tier prospects or young relievers to Anaheim … Erbe, Mickolio, Lebron (Snyder? Waring?), even possibly someone like David Hernandez if that’s what it takes. Bring him in, commit to giving him 1000 at-bats over the next two years. My conservative prediction is, at a minimum, Wood would hit something in the neighborhood of .240/.300/.430 this year. Ultimately, I still see him developing into something of a .270/.340/.480 kind of hitter in the big leagues – if he’s going to do it for someone, it might as well be us who have nothing to lose by committing the regular at-bats to him.
My pet favorite for years has been Ivan DeJesus, Jr. He was, before his injury, an on-base machine. He’s a year removed from injury, he struggled last year, and has firmly has been surpassed in the Dodgers system by Dee Gordon, meaning he is blocked and will not see the light of day there (that said, they conceivably could make him a second baseman – although he struggled last year at AAA which might have set that plan back a bit). He is pretty rarely talked-about. He is mlb-ready, having two years ago hit .324/.419/.423 in his first (and only) time at AA. His first shot at A+ went similarly well. He is a rangy shortstop with a strong arm, he absolutely can play the position at the major-league level. He profiles long-term as something of the ideal number-two hitter (good contact skills, excellent plate discipline, good speed). In the meantime, I would be happy to give him the same 1000 at-bats over the next two years I was talking about with Wood. I believe he has options remaining so the urgency level in trading him and getting something for him likely is not as high as with the Angels and Wood, but I still think it would take something substantial to get him. Probably about the same quality of player(s) to get him as I discussed under the Wood scenario, I’m guessing.
Jed Lowrie is someone who has shifted from being a favored-son, to being injured, to underachieving and falling out of favor (which is why I was saying his name so much last year), to again being considered by the Red Sox as their potential short- (and long?)-term solution at shortstop because he hit the snot out of the ball in 171 big-league at-bats last year. So really, your guess is as good as mine in terms of his availability (and Boston generally is a very smart organization, meaning they would require top-quality players in return – players who we likely should want to hold on to), but it would take a hell of a lot more to get him this year than it would have last year. That said, I really really like Lowrie. He is MLB-ready, he gets on base, he has some pop, he is a capable defender at short. What’s not to like? The Red Sox have a number of strong shortstops in their organization, but none quite as MLB-ready as Lowrie. My guess is that Lowrie challenges Scutaro for the starting gig – Scutaro very well might be more available on the trade market than Lowrie. We might well have missed the boat on trading for Lowrie last off-season.
My second-tier wish list includes Jason Donald. Donald has kicked around a bit (went from philly to cleveland in the original cliff lee deal), and the indians have their shortstop of the present and future in Asdrubal Cabrera. That makes Donald a position-change candidate (which many speculated he might need anyhow) to second base or third base. They have Lonnie Chisenhall on the way at third base, so it’s not likely they envision him as a long-term solution there, but he probably fits pretty well at second base for them (although Luis Valbuena isn’t a terrible 2b option either). By all accounts, they like Donald … so again, he is someone we would have to give something to get. If our scouting reports like him to stick at shortstop, he might be worth giving something to get … and again, investing 1000 at-bats in him over the next two seasons.
My sleeper pick here is Justin Sellers, also with the dodgers. Sellers is another guy buried behind Devaris Gordon (and DeJesus) and has kicked around quite a bit. He was drafted by the A’s, went to the cubbies in the Wuertz trade, and ultimately went to the dodgers for a ptbnl. Sellers profiles as an elite defender and has handled every level of the minor leagues – last year, in 288 pcl (AAA) at-bats, he hit .285/.371/.497 and features a cumulative MiL line of .364/.351/.373. He has good (but not great) speed, he hits a bunch of doubles (but historically few home runs – although he showed some pop in the PCL last year). He is 25 y/o, he has moved quickly and performed well at all levels. Depending on what the Dodgers decide to do with Hu, DeJesus, Theriot, et al. (and it is hard to imagine them going with a whole cast of very young players), he might be available. Give something to get him, and give him the 1000 at-bats.
That’s my take on the shortstop position, at least for now.
Original Story:
http://www.orioleboard.com/2010/11/10...
