'Sunday Night Baseball': Astros vs. Rangers odds, pick, predictions for 4/7  

Astros vs. Rangers Odds

Sunday, April 7, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Houston Astros

With just nine games down, it's hard to trust any statistics or records we see because the sample size is just not large enough to be indicative of any team's true form. However, the Astros are one of the teams due for significant positive regression.

These two lineups rank fourth and fifth in xwOBAcon, but the Astros are ahead by five points. They also have a higher xBA at .289, which is 32 points higher than their actual team batting average.

Offensively, positive regression is expected, and we should see some of it tonight as the Astros face a familiar face in Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning.

Dunning has come in and held down a rotation spot for a over a season, as the Rangers' top starters are riddled with injuries. While Dunning did a solid job in 2023, a closer look shows he was much more lucky than good.

He held an xERA of 4.48, which is a significant jump from his actual ERA of 3.70. Dunning allowed plenty of hard contact as a sinkerballer, but putting the ball in play with solid contact is just what this Astros lineup needs to get going.

The Astros have seen him well as they have hit .308 with seven extra-base hits in a combined 91 at-bats. They have also maintained a decent launch angle, as only Jose Abreu and Jeremy Pena have consistently fallen victim to Dunning's sinkers.

Look for Houston's bats to get the party started early in a game with a high total.

Texas Rangers

I touched upon the Rangers lineup a bit above, but don't understate how impressive the lineup has been. There are threats from top to bottom, and they only seem to churn out more talent, with the likes of rookie Wyatt Langford rising to the top of the order.

However, unlike the Astros, they are making hard contact but are due for a significant regression. As a group, they are second in xBA at .283, but that is 18 points lower than their actual team batting average of .301.

It also does not help that they are facing Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco, who enters this matchup after pitching the game of his life. Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays in his first start of the year, as he only allowed two baserunners and struck out seven.

While Blanco is undoubtedly due for regression himself, his upward ascendance is nothing new, as he did not allow a run all spring. Blanco has leaned into the strengths of his pitching arsenal by throwing predominantly changeups and sliders.

This has allowed him to create far more soft contact and work efficiently, as his fastball was hit very hard last season. With the Rangers due to regress, they should take a time or two through the order before they get to Blanco.

Astros vs. Rangers

Betting Pick & Prediction

I've made it clear that regression, both positive and negative, is the name of the game in the early going, and the last area that swings in Houston's favor is the bullpen.

Houston's bullpen has been shelled with a collective 7.31 ERA that ranks 28th in baseball. The Rangers' bullpen is the opposite, ranking seventh in baseball with a 2.89 ERA.

However, the Rangers' FIP is nearly two runs higher than their ERA, while the Astros' FIP expects them to improve by a run at a minimum.

The first two games of this series may not show it, but everything points toward Houston coming out on top in this final game of the series.

Pick: Astros Moneyline -105