Relief pitchers are both the most volatile and most plentiful type of baseball player out there. As such, there are a lot of really good arguments to be made against paying relievers big bucks, many of which I agree with. I don’t want my team handing out big bucks for relievers, even good ones, which is one of the reasons I like Seattle Mariner GM Jack Zduriencik. The book is still out on him after two years with the Mariners, but from day one he has shown an adeptness at building a cheap and generally effective bullpen. His first move as Mariner GM was to trade the team’s most expensive reliever, and he has since brought in capable relievers as part of low profile trades and minor league free agent signings.
Not all teams subscribe to this method. The Mariners’ AL West rival Los Angeles Angels don’t shy away from spending on their bullpen. Every year the Angels get my attention by seemingly overpaying for a reliever or two. This offseason they have committed a combined $23M to a couple of lefties in Hisinori Takahashi (2 years/$8MM) and Scott Downs (3 years/$15MM). They may not be done either, as they’re said to have their eye on the prize of the 2011 free agent relief market, former Mariner Rafael Soriano, although they may pull the reigns as they focus on signing Adrian Beltre or other free agents.
The Angels have a lot of money to spend so dishing out a few million for relief help isn’t a big deal. Takahashi and Downs may not be the best investments, but they’re not major commitments either. Still, I’ve got to think that the Angels would be better off spending those millions elsewhere. Is it just me, or do no-names always seem to outperform the Angels’ name-brand relievers?
Last season the Angels multi-million dollar relievers were Brian Fuentes ($9MM), Fernando Rodney ($5.5MM), Scot Shields ($5.35MM) and Justin Speier ($5.25MM). Fuentes and Rodney had solid seasons– each with an xFIP around 4.50– but they did not live up to expectations set when they were made the Angels’ end game. Meanwhile, my namesake made it into just 44.1 innings and walked over 6 hitters per 9, and Speier had long been sent away and wasn’t able to hook on with a team for the 2010 season.
That $25MM produced 0.2 WAR over 140 innings for the Angels. Those recognizable names cost the Angels a pretty penny, but their most effective reliever wound up being Kevin Jepsen, who amassed 1.1 WAR and a 3.03 FIP over 59 innings in his age 25 season while making just $415k. The Angels also got good production (1.4 WAR) from Jordan Walden, Trevor Bell, Mike Kohn, Rich Thompson and Bobby Cassevah over a combined 100 innings.
In 2009 the Angels’ bullpen millionaires were Fuentes ($8.5MM), Shields ($5MM), Speier ($4.75MM) and Darren Oliver ($3.665MM). Fuentes was O.K. but terribly inconsistent and disappointing following his big 2008 with the Rockies. Shields managed just 17.2 ineffective innings between injuries. Speier’s peripherals looked alright but his ERA floated into the 5′s for the second consecutive season, which led to his release. Oliver, whose career revival has been well publicized, was the lone bright spot in this bunch, producing 1.4 WAR and a shiny ERA over 72 innings.
Fuentes, Shields and Speier contributed just 0.2 WAR for a combined $18MM. With Oliver: 1.6 WAR for $22MM. Jepsen reappears as the Angels best bargain, producing 1.3 WAR in what would be his first full season in the big leagues, and was backed by strong performances by the equally cheap Jason Bulger and Jose Arredondo.
In 2008, the Angels richly paid relievers included Francisco Rodriguez ($10MM), Shields ($4.25MM) and Speier ($4.25MM). Rodriguez had a pretty good season, though not as great as his record-setting 62 saves might suggest. Shields had what would be his last good season with the Angels. Speier put up a 5.81 FIP, the worst mark of his career.
In 2008, their $18.5MM came with 1.8 WAR. Shields’ contributions were completely wiped out by Speier’s struggles, leaving only Rodriguez’s total. But while the Angels actually did get good production out of their closer and setup man, they still needed good performances from the cheaper pitchers. Rookie Arredondo came through with 1.3 WAR, and Oliver, who was making a reasonable $2MM at this point, contributed 1 WAR.
Over the past three seasons the Angel relievers making $3MM or more have produced just 3.6 WAR, or about $18MM per WAR. So much for solidifying the bullpen with experience.
Maybe the Angels are learning a bit. This upcoming season Rodney, Downs and Takahashi are only owed about $11.5MM. That said, adding Soriano– who figures to be very expensive and carries a ton of risk due to his injury history– would change that sentiment dramatically.
If there is anything you take away from this post, notice the WAR totals. The really notable seasons come out around 1-1.5 WAR. 0.5-1 WAR is pretty solid. The good relievers aren’t significantly better than the replacement level relievers, so why pay $5MM+ for a 0.5 WAR difference?
Original Story:
http://www.proballnw.com/12-2010/the-...
