Three Reasons for Optimism about the Blue Jays

Man, things are no fun out there in the Blue Jays discourse — and I can’t really blame y’all. I know you know it’s early. I know you know things may still turn. But, I’m not gonna demand you have unfettered optimism for no reason at all.

But, I am going to give you three glimmering spots of hope. Cling on to these reasons for Blue Jays optimism in the dark days, they may warm your heart for at least a moment:

1) Danny Jansen Mashes

He bangs, he bangs. Ricky Martin was talking about Danny Jansen.

There have been plenty of early-season slumps in this Toronto lineup, but Jansen is not one. The catcher hit .311 in his first 15 games, with a 1.071 OPS.

Expected stats aren’t screaming regression, either. Jansen has the highest expected WOBA (.425) and expected average (.308) on the Jays. Due to his early-season injury, Jansen isn’t qualified for leaderboards. But, if he was, the backstop’s xWOBA would be the seventh-best in MLB, ahead of Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Freddie Freeman.

Jansen’s had his share of injuries (and a few of someone else’s share), but when he’s healthy he’s quietly been one of the best offensive catchers in baseball over the last few years. Since 2021, he’s got an .822 OPS, 26% higher than average.

We interrupt this segment of optimism to bring you some brief pessimism: Jansen is a free agent at the end of the season, able to sign with any team he wants. If he keeps up anywhere near these numbers, the Jays won’t be the only one offering him that cash.

2) Daulton Varsho Took A Step

If I told you before the season that Daulton Varsho was rocking a .775 OPS (122 OPS+) at this point in the year, you’d think the Blue Jays offence was rolling. Unfortunately, Varsho is one of the few steps forward. But he’s taken that step nonetheless.

The 27-year-old outfielder is on pace to set career highs in homers, stolen bases, on-base percentage, and OPS. Ben Clemens over at FanGraphs had a good breakdown of where Varsho’s success this year is coming from: yanking balls in the air.

Varsho is pulling the ball 5% more than he did last season (more in line with his 2022 pull rate) and putting the ball in the air more than ever (51.9% fly ball rate). The key here is pitch selection, too. Varsho is swinging at a career-high 73.2% of balls on the inside third of the plate and under 50% of balls on the outside third. In a similar way Danny Jansen became a pull-power merchant a few years ago, Varsho is doing the same in 2024.

With two more years of team control after this, Varsho’s 2024 success is reason for optimism beyond this season, too.

3) The Bullpen Will Not Stay This Bad

At first look, the Blue Jays bullpen is in shambles. The unit has the worst ERA in baseball (5.23) and a 19.0% strikeout rate that ranks fourth-worst.

On second look, it’s not much better: league-worst in FIP.

That’s why we have a third look, and that’s where things seem a bit rosier. The real problem for Toronto’s relievers has been the homers. They’ve allowed the most homer-runs among all bullpens and own a 1.6 HR/9, which is four-times higher than MLB’s lowest. Those many homers come from a crazy 14.2% home run per fly ball rate — meaning 14.2% of all fly balls allowed by the Blue Jays ‘pen are going for dingers.

That’s about five percent above league average, and the highest rate in MLB right now. Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Genesis Cabrera, and Trevor Richards all have homer/fly ball rates over 14%. Swanson’s is at an absurd 40%. FORTY percent of his fly balls allowed are leaving the yard. HR/FB rate is also often seen as a stat that normalizes back to average over time.

Sure, bad pitches get hit hard and far. But Toronto’s not 15% of fly balls are not gonna soar out the park against Toronto’s bullpen this year — I’ll stake my reputation on that. Once the fly balls start finding gloves, the Jays bullpen will draft back closer to league average.

Bonus Reason For Optimism: We are but a collection of atoms on a rock hurtling around a ball of fire in space. Nothing matters.