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Three reasons why the Cleveland Indians could win (or lose) the World Series
Andrew Miller is having a postseason of legend for the Cleveland Indians. Elsa/Getty Images

Three reasons why the Cleveland Indians could win (or lose) the World Series

The Cleveland Indians have firmly entrenched themselves as the breakout team of this postseason, mustering up a 7-1 record thus far and nearly becoming the only team in history to sweep its way into the World Series. And while the Tribe could previously be seen as somewhat of a surprise entrant into baseball’s final showdown, they are now pitted against the odds on favorite to make the Fall Classic, the Chicago Cubs.

While much of the easy rhetoric will focus on what neither of these franchises have done in generations, it is high time to put that away until the Series is decided and focus on what they represent in the present. These are two teams that stack up very nicely against each other, both in strength and intangible values. The Cubs have been the class of the National League and have won more games than any other in baseball. However, the Indians have successfully parlayed what would be considered the National League style of play into becoming the most swarming and irresistible team in baseball, and now will open the World Series as the team carrying a ton of momentum, both on field and from their surrounding city.

Where can the Indians find the best advantage to exploit in their push to bring a World Series title to Cleveland for the first time since the shadow of World War II was over the nation? Here are the three ways they can both win – or lose out – amid their relentless push towards the top of the American League.

Keys to the Series

Jason Kipnis
Kipnis plays an all-important role in the series due to the fact that he is such a diverse presence for the team. Kipnis could be a candidate to move up to the leadoff spot in the lineup during middle stage of the series, due to the fact that team’s everyday leadoff hitter, designated hitter Carlos Santana, will be out of the lineup.

But regardless of where it is that he hits, Kipnis is a critical extra base hit threat (68 on the year), and will need to both overcome a sprained ankle he suffered while celebrating the team’s ALCS victory, as well as pick up his production again as well. Kipnis went only 1-for-19 in the series, after hitting .364 against the Red Sox in the ALDS.

Andrew Miller
His run through the postseason has been the stuff of legends thus far, but now more than ever it is most important that Miller is utilized in the right situations. Drawing his effectiveness based on traditional split matchups is pointless; nobody is making contact against him at this point. But Terry Francona will need to call on his prized lefty at just the right times, because Joe Maddon has the lineup depth to weather a bad inning or two when he is in the game, with the knowledge of knowing he has plenty of other weapons to call to pick up the pace later on.

Finding ways for Miller to not only face Bryant and Rizzo as often as possible, but also negate Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Miguel Montero and Chris Coglhan as well is vital. Tito will need to save his knockout blow for nearly the perfect time, every time.

Mike Napoli
He has been the catalyst that uplifted the previously middling Indians offense all year. In the midst of a team whose strategy has been to beat the bases up and take as many runs as possible from picking up the pace via speed and placement, he is the sole bat at the heart of the order that must be respected regularly, due to his raw power.

With Santana out of the lineup in the games played in Wrigley, Napoli’s presence means that much more and having runners on base when he comes around to hit will be of the utmost importance. Especially if the powerful Cubs lineup has asserted its presence already and they are needing to make up space on the scoreboard in a hurry.

Danny Salazar
The team’s All-Star righty’s return was a dream left deferred for the ALCS, but it seems more likely that he will be available to be deployed in the World Series. If he does come back, Salazar’s presence opens up a whole new layer of what the Indians’ staff can do. He could potentially make an appearance as the fourth starter (which has not yet been named), but could also be used as another strikeout-inducing arm out of the pen as well. There is also the opportunity that he could be both, although they will likely be careful with his exposure as he returns from a forearm injury that has kept him out since September 9th.

Three reasons why they can win it all

Winning the matchup war – overall
The Indians have a very diverse lineup that is more flexible than most American League teams usually carry. They are not overly reliant on production from either side of the plate, having hit .268 vs left-handers and .259 vs right-handers on the year. This is propelled by the fact that they have four switch-hitters – Santana, Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Coco Crisp – who can be placed in an every other batter arrangement throughout the lineup. This gives them the all-important ability to potentially overcome the depth of left-handed pitchers out of the Cubs bullpen, which was vital in neutralizing Dodger momentum in the NLCS.

Adaptability to the NL game
Contact and speed are the name of the game for the Indians, who led the Majors in team stolen bases this year and finished towards the middle of the pack in strikeouts as well. They posted the fourth best team on-base percentage, and had five starters whose total walks were outnumbered by their strikeouts by 40 or fewer.

What does all of that add up to? They will be persistent and will put the pressure on opposing pitchers and catchers. It is well noted Jon Lester’s struggles with keeping runners honest, so the highly proficient Indians (81% team stolen base success rate) could be a virtual nightmare matchup. And Lester is not alone in his struggles against active running teams. 23-of-26 base stealers were successful against Jake Arrieta as well. So basically, if the Indians play their game, they could very easily impose their will to a much greater degree than any other team has against the Cubs all season.

Three reasons why they could lose it

Bats stay stagnant
It would not exactly be fair to say that they emerged from the ALCS utilizing smoke and mirrors, but Cleveland rode its pitching nearly exclusively to win out over the Blue Jays. They hit .168 as a team, with only Lindor (7-for-19) having any true repeatable measure of success at the plate. They will have to wake up at the dish, or they could be completely overwhelmed the MLB-best rotation of the Cubs. Santana (.168), Napoli (.188), Tyler Naquin (.167), Jose Ramirez (.059) and Kipnis (.053) must regain their form... and in a hurry.

Starters get beat before bullpen can weigh in
Due to injuries, both existing already (Salazar) and incurred along the way (Trevor Bauer), the Indians have been playing in essentially reverse working games: get as many innings as possible from the starter, and get it to the bullpen in the best shape possible.

That is a razor’s edge of way to go about things in the postseason. And now tasked with an awakening Cubs lineup, which has as many options to pull on from their bench as the Indians do from their bullpen, they will need to keep that pen as fresh as possible. Somebody besides Corey Kluber is going to have to pitch past the fifth or sixth inning in this series, and have a good showing as well.

Lose the matchup game – decisively
To win a World Series, inches must be turned into miles. The Indians have specialized in this thus far in the postseason, such as Lonnie Chisenhall taking David Price deep early in the ALDS, despite not homering versus a lefty all season otherwise. The Cubs have a well-constructed bullpen that can afford to go tit-for-tat with balanced Indians lineup. There could come a time when Mike Montgomery and Travis Wood are reserved to go after Kipnis and Chisenhall alone, meaning that they will need to hit them well and make sure they don’t lose critical late game at-bats – especially with Aroldis Chapman lurking.

X-factor: How bold will Francona be with rotation options?
It is a tipping point in the series: how daring can Francona be with his rotation? Kluber may be the best pitcher in the American League and Josh Tomlin has been great so far, but after that everything else has been in flux. But could Francona attempt to strike oil twice by going back to rookie Ryan Merritt in another big road start in Game 4? And what will Bauer have to offer, as he attempts to come back from the injured finger that cut is ALCS down to less than one inning? He has not seen extended game action in over 20 days by the time he takes the mound in Game 2. Potentially having Salazar available will be huge, but the series could hinge on just how daring Francona is in trusting his rotation vs. his bullpen.

VERDICT

Over the last decade, only two World Series have gone the distance. However, for two teams that have waited so long for this dance with destiny, it only seems right that this should be decided over the full run of contests. It should be a series that ebbs and flows and has some distinctly different performances in it. It could also be one that centers on who’s more dominant unit can insert itself sooner. Thus far in these playoffs, no one has been better than the Indians bullpen. Likewise, few teams have been able to call on the right hit, at the right time, like the Tribe has either. Those are the type of October factors and intangibles that make all of the difference, and it feels more like that leans towards the Indians.

It won’t be easy, and it may not always be pretty, but ‘Believeland’ could end yet another championship drought at the end of this series. Just waiting on those Browns to get the memo now.

INDIANS IN SEVEN.

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