Originally posted on Pirates Prospects  |  Last updated 7/31/13
Earlier today we heard that the Pittsburgh Pirates were really interested in Jeff Samardzija. James Santelli broke down the rumors, noting that the Pirates like Samardzija more than other teams. He also provided his thoughts on the deal in that article. Here is the value of Samardzija, with my analysis and thoughts on him below. NOTE: The purpose here isn’t to suggest the Pirates are offering this amount for these players.  The purpose is to see the value of these players, using projected values (calculated as [(WAR*$5 M) - Salary]) and prospect trade values. We use our updated values for top 100 prospects, and Victor Wang’s research on prospect values for non-top 100 prospects. Also check out our values for the prospects in the Pirates system to get an idea of what a deal would cost for the Pirates. Jeff Samardzija Trade Value Year Salary WAR FA Value Surplus Value 2013 $2,640,000 3.0 $15,200,000 $4,200,000 2014 $5,000,000 3.0 $15,200,000 $10,200,000 2015 $7,500,000 3.0 $15,200,000 $7,700,000 TOTAL $15,100,000 9.0 $45,600,000 $24,600,000 Jeff Samardzija would cost a lot, but would also be an anchor for the rotation over the next two years. Finding the Value: Samardzija was a 3.0 WAR player last year. He has a 2.2 WAR this year, so we can say he’s a 3.0 guy again this year. It was pretty easy putting him at a 3.0 WAR for the final two years. He’s 28-years-old, so I don’t think he’s going to have a big breakout. He should just remain a steady pitcher. His salary is up in the air. He’s making $2.64 M this year, and is eligible for arbitration two more times. I went with $5 M and $7.5 M for the final two years in value. Those might be low, and if they are, it only lowers Samardzija’s overall value. I set the 2013 trade for today. Also, I added $2.5 M on his overall value, since Samardzija will probably land a compensation pick when he leaves as a free agent. What He’s Worth: You’re definitely talking a top prospect for Samardzija. Jameson Taillon, for example, would cover $18.89 M in value. The question is, do you trade six years of Taillon for two years of Samardzija? Or do you go lower? If you can keep Taillon, the next biggest piece would be Alen Hanson, who would have $18.12 M in value. You’d still need to cover the rest of the money, likely with Grade B hitters and maybe even one more 5-10 prospect. You could put together a lot of options to get to the $24.6 M in value, but there are two things to consider. First is that the Cubs got huge value from the Rangers for Matt Garza. He landed them a top 50 prospect, plus three Grade B pitchers. That was for two months of production. They want more than that for Samardzija. The value they received was anywhere from $35-40 M in value. So to get to that, you’re talking two top 100 prospects. Plus more. Samardzija is a really good pitcher, and has 2.5 years of control, plus he probably comes with a draft pick on the back end of the deal. An example of what he could cost would be two of Taillon, Hanson, or Tyler Glasnow, plus a Josh Bell type prospect. Or you might be able to go with one of that first group, in exchange for 2-3 Grade B/C prospects. Either way, the price will be at least one top 50 prospect (and maybe two), plus another possible top 100 prospect, and 1-3 additional prospects. Analysis: I’m a fan of Jeff Samardzija, to the point where I don’t even have to think about how to spell his name. He’s a talented pitcher who has a strikeout per inning in his career, an average ground ball rate, and great stuff. You know what you’re getting with him, and that’s a #2 starter for two years and two months. This year he would slot in at the top of the rotation with Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett, giving the Pirates a great playoff rotation. Next year he’d join a rotation of Liriano, Gerrit Cole, Jeff Locke, and if they got Burnett back that would only be better. The downside is that you’re trading a lot of prospects if you want to get him. You’re also trading them to the Cubs, which could cost you down the line. Dealing Jameson Taillon and then watching him pitch in Chicago next summer might hurt. Prospects aren’t guarantees, but it’s not like every prospect you trade will fail. If that’s the case, the Cubs wouldn’t be interested in dealing a talented pitcher with over two years remaining. I think the deal would be easier to make if Taillon wasn’t involved (I’m already assuming Gregory Polanco would be off-limits). That means you’d probably have to deal Alen Hanson. You might also have to deal Tyler Glasnow. I like the upsides with both players, but I think the risks are higher for those guys than they are for Taillon and Polanco. I think the best case scenario would be dealing one of those top guys (Hanson), a talented guy you wouldn’t miss due to the system depth (Bell), and maybe 2-3 players who are ranked after Nick Kingham in our system rankings. The Cubs don’t have to deal Samardzija this year. They could wait until the off-season, and the return wouldn’t change much. I wouldn’t assume a trade is likely today, but his value and the potential cost is something to consider, especially if there is more talk of dealing him in the off-season.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Bismack Biyombo retroactively assessed Flagrant 2, won’t be suspended

Sandoval expected to miss rest of season after shoulder surgery

Falcons GM: ‘I don’t think we’ve hired anyone from Scouts Inc.'

Report: Bryce Harper signs historic Under Armour deal

Bellator MMA fighter loses leg after gruesome accident

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

FSU SGA bans Native American headdresses at athletic events

Yadier Molina does pushups after pitch nearly hits him

Report: Zika virus concerns could doom series in Puerto Rico

Former NFL DPOY Dana Stubblefield charged with raping disabled woman

Bob Condon: Teams were interested in Peyton Manning

Report: Chris Bosh wants union to force Heat to let him play

Most exciting games of the 2016 NBA playoffs so far

Dale Earnhardt Jr. lays favorite car ‘Amelia’ to rest following bang-ups at Talladega

Former Rockets star Robert Reid: ‘Harden looks after Harden’

New Drake songs that explain why Raptors can beat Heat

Will Letang face suspension for hit on Johansson?

Philly-area BBQ joint creates sandwich to rip Sam Bradford

Ten players who could go No. 1 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft

How Leicester City won the Premier League

Curt Schilling's wife goes off on ESPN over alleged snub

John Harbaugh likens fourth round of NFL Draft to Star Trek

Four MLB stars that must be traded in 2016

Ten best fits from Round 1 of 2016 NFL Draft

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Most exciting games of the 2016 NBA playoffs so far

Five bizarre moments in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

How the Sharks have 'weathered the storm' against the Predators

Okay, who stole the Kansas City Royals player off that billboard?

Eight players to watch in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

A Round-By-Round Look At the NFL Draft

10 biggest takeaways from the NBA playoffs thus far

QUIZ: Name every No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft since 1985

NHL postseason Round 2 quick hits: Sharks vs. Predators

NHL postseason Round 2 quick hits: Blues vs. Stars

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker