Twins or Tigers (Tigers edition)?

One of the things that I think many baseball analysts can do a better job of is estimating team strength at a point in time. Too many people are willing to just use the current year data and/or pythagorean records/run differentials and assume that it tells us enough about the team(s) they may be looking at. However, we have more data than that, and it behooves us to use it. We know the Twins and Tigers are still fighting it out for the AL Central, although with a two game lead Detroit should be in the driver's seat. We also know that neither team has a particularly impressive record or run differential. But we should also know that the April and May versions of those teams shouldn't be weighed as heavily as the teams that will be playing in October aside from the players that are still on the team and how their April and May performances help us in estimating how good they are. So what we really should do if we want to figure out how good the Twins and Tigers are right ...