Originally posted on Waiting For Next Year  |  Last updated 9/23/13
With six games left in the season, the Cleveland Indians have reached a new high watermark in their playoff odds. The three major sites, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Cool Standings, all agree that the team’s odds are over 70 percent. A week ago, after the previous four-game sweep over the Chicago White Sox, the team’s playoff probability was finally creeping up over 50 percent. With another four-game sweep in hand, the odds jumped up even more over the weekend. Here’s where each site stands right now: Baseball Prospectus: (link) Rays — 90.1%, 89.9-72.1 final record Indians — 72.8%, 89.4-72.6 final record Rangers — 35.0%, 88.1-73.9 final record Other wild card contenders — 2.1% (best: KCR 85.6 wins) FanGraphs: (link) Rays — 87.4%, 89.9-72.1 final record Indians — 80.3%, 89.4-72.6 final record Rangers — 29.9%, 80.0-74.0 final record Other wild card contenders — 2.4% (best: KCR 85.7 wins) Cool Standings (link) Rays — 77.4%, 89.5-72.5 final record Indians — 87.6%, 89.9-72.1 final record Rangers — 28.6%, 87.9-74.1 final record Other wild card contenders — 6.3% (best: KCR 86.5 wins) Last week in The Diff, I featured how these different projection systems operate and why Cool Standings has been the most favorable for the Indians of late. In a nutshell, it’s because that season uses run differential from 2013 alone; the others incorporate preseason predictions from their complicated mathematical systems. There’s also a very high probability of some ties, as FanGraphs’ site shows most prominently. Kirk had a good breakdown earlier today of what that could mean for the Indians and where they stand if tied with the Rays or Rangers for one (or more) of the wild card spots. It should be a pretty fascinating race to the finish. The sites see Cleveland winning between 3.4-3.9 of their final six games against two of the AL’s worst teams — Chicago and Minnesota. Winning five mathematically guarantees at least a tiebreaker; winning four should just about do it as well. [Related: Tribe Weekend Recap: Sweep of Astros has Tribe on cusp of playoffs]
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Jaylen Brown looks like reason Celtics didn’t trade for Jimmy Butler

Myles Turner opens up about Paul George wanting to leave Pacers

UFC fighter pokes fun at herself after defecating during match

D’Angelo Russell downplays Magic Johnson’s ‘irrelevant’ criticism

Brent Musburger defends praising Katherine Webb for being ‘beautiful’

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Saints' Cam Jordan: We believe we can win Super Bowl ‘now’

DA fighting to have Hernandez murder conviction reinstated

Report: Cavs, Pacers talking three-team George trade

In appreciation of Ichiro, the oldest man to play center field since at least 1900

WATCH: Adam Rosales sprints to fastest home run trot record

Report: Pacers not interested in acquiring Kevin Love

Getaway Day: Welcome back to the world, AL Central

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Feeding your roundball addiction through the summer months

Best of Yardbarker: Diana Taurasi makes history

The 'Finest running back from America’s Finest City' quiz

Players who need to turn around their season to save their teams

Sports & Politics Intersect: Washington gets a rare win

Three Up, Three Down: Flouting the written and unwritten rules of baseball

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Billy King Award for worst trade

Kicking it: David Villa isn't interested in a 'retirement tour'

Box Score 6/23: Philly continues to trust the process

The 'NBA Draft going back to school?' quiz

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Getaway Day: Welcome back to the world, AL Central

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Feeding your roundball addiction through the summer months

Best of Yardbarker: Diana Taurasi makes history

The 'Finest running back from America’s Finest City' quiz

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Billy King Award for worst trade

Players who need to turn around their season to save their teams

Three Up, Three Down: Flouting the written and unwritten rules of baseball

Sports & Politics Intersect: Washington gets a rare win

Kicking it: David Villa isn't interested in a 'retirement tour'

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker