What about Harden?

Moving on from the ridiculousness of trading Zambrano, WV23 quotes Bruce Miles and I’m as confused as he is. Bruce Miles was apparently on a radio show and said this in response to a person asking him about Rich Harden on his blog: A lot of people seem to think it’s a no-brainer that the Cubs will offer him arbitration. It’s not that cut-and-dried. If they offer and he accepts, do they have the money if he wants $10 mil? I was on ESPN radio with Chuck Swirsky the other night, and he asked me, “Yes” or “No,” whether I thought Harden would be back, and I said, “No.” Obviously Miles knows a lot more about what the Cubs might or might not do than I, but I think offering him arbitration is that cut and dried. There’s only one right decision here and it doesn’t matter whether or not the Cubs can afford to spend $10 million. Rich Harden is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he’s been relatively healthy for 2 seasons now. OK, you might say he’s as injury-prone as Kerry Wood and you’d be right, but how much money did Kerry Wood get in free agency this past offseason? $20 million. As a reliever! There’s no doubt whatsoever that Rich Harden is the more valuable pitcher. He’s younger and he’s better than Kerry Wood. He’s worth more money than Kerry Wood. Wood was coming off of one relatively healthy season. He spent nearly a month on the DL in 2008, but was dominating as a closer. It was his first year of being healthy since DeRosa was a child. Rich Harden has thrown about 300 innings over the last two seasons. He wasn’t just dominating in 2008 like Kerry Wood was. He was better in 2008 than Wood and he did so as a starter with half the season in the far more difficult league. There’s no question about whether or not Rich Harden can pitch successfully in the AL like there may have been with Kerry Wood. Rich Harden has already done so and he’s done it as a starter. Wood was 31 years old when he was signed. He’d thrown 90.2 innings as a reliever over the previous 2 seasons. 24.1 of them were in 2007 and the rest were in 2008. Rich Harden is not even 28 years old yet. He’s thrown 286 innings over the last 2 seasons and will surpass 300 before the season ends. Wood, as a reliever, appeared in 87 games in 2007 and 2008. Rich Harden has started 25 games each of the last 2 seasons. Kerry Wood magically healed in 2007 before his career may have ended. There was no surgery. He just felt better one day after being injured for so long. Rich Harden’s rest of season projected FIP is more than a run better than Kerry Wood’s. Remember, Wood is a reliever. He is in the AL, but that’s a huge difference. Wood’s career FIP is 3.80 while Harden’s is 3.58 and Harden has done that in the more difficult league. All of these numbers really only mean that Harden is the far superior pitcher. It’s not really even that close, but last year Kerry Wood got a 2-year deal for $20 million. The Cubs would have to be insane to not offer Rich Harden arbitration. Even if the Cubs cannot afford the $10 million that he may get, it won’t matter. The only way Rich Harden gets less than what he may get in arbitration is if he gets injured at some point this season. I don’t see how any other team would pass, even if they have to give up their first round draft pick. All of this is kind of pointless anyway. The Cubs need Rich Harden in 2010. If there’s a possibility that they won’t even offer arbitration then the Cubs really do need to consider the so-called fire sale. Who are the Cubs going to replace him with? The wide receiver from Notre Dame? Seriously? I’m not bashing Bruce Miles here. I’m sure he has a solid reason to say what he did. I’m guessing there’s some truth to what he’s saying. It really appears to me that the Cubs don’t have any money to spend and they might even be likely to be sellers rather than buyers. If so, Tom Ricketts is going to have a very rough first season as the new owner of the Cubs. I guess the joke will be on all of those who have been wishing the Tribune gone all of these years.