What is Kyle Drabek Telling Us?

Kyle Drabek, a large part of the hopes of Toronto Blue Jays' fans, has now made five starts in 2010. His record stands at 2-0. If that was all we looked at, Blue Jay fans should be ecstatic. His ERA is also an impressive 3.30, good for a 121 ERA+. Also party-worthy. Baseball-reference.com is somewhat impressed and gives him 0.6 WAR accumulated so far. Fangraphs.com isn't impressed at all and gives him a WAR of only 0.1. So what does all that tell us? The large part of the answer is that we don't know yet. The Good: Drabek has only allowed 7.2 hits per nine innings and has done a reasonable job keeping the ball in the ballpark with a rate of 0.9 homers per nine innings. He has a two to one ground ball to fly ball ratio. The Not So Good: Drabek leads the American League in walks with 17. His 5.1 walks per nine innings compared to his 6.3 strikeouts per nine leads to a pretty pedestrian K/BB ratio. Drabek's BABIP of .256 seems unsustainable. So even if his walk rate...