What MLB’s new bat-tracking data says about the Blue Jays

It’s a fact that bat speed slows down as a player ages, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that 39-year-old Justin Turner has the fourth-slowest bat speed in the big leagues among qualified hitters. His 65.4 MPH bat speed is faster than only Nicky Lopez, Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez.

The lack of bat speed isn’t a bad thing, as Arraez’s lack of bat speed doesn’t seem to change the fact he’s one of the best hitters in MLB at making solid contact off the bat. Turner’s 32.8% squared-up contact rate is well above the league average of around 26%.

Regardless, Turner’s approach seems to work for him, as his 27.2% line drive rate ranks 11th in MLB. Despite a lack of quickness through the zone, Turner maximizes his at-bats by hitting it on the screws when he makes contact.

The Blue Jays have the slowest team bat speed in MLB

This is likely due to the fact that Turner’s 65.4 MPH bat speed has brought the team average down, but as a whole, the Blue Jays hitters have the slowest swing speed in baseball.

Hitters like Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ernie Clement, Justin Turner and Cavan Biggio all own average bat speeds under 70 MPH, which would be considered on the “slower” side.

Vladdy’s place on the “what the eff” scale

ESPN’s Jeff Passan included Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on his list of the five most alarming profiles unearthed by MLB’s new data. Passan points to Vladdy’s impressive 75.6 MPH bat speed, but his 26.9% squared-up contact rate is nearly in the bottom third of hitters in baseball this season.

Again, this is yet another metric that backs up what anybody with eyes and ears can tell: Guerrero hits the tar out of the ball. Unfortunately, he often misses the sweet spot of the bat, which leads to poor contact, despite hammering the baseball.

It makes sense why he’s in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate because he makes a hell of a lot of hard contact. The main issue with Vladdy is that he hits too many of these baseballs into the ground instead of in the air for extra bases.

The Blue Jays are in the blast contact basement

If it wasn’t enough to have the lowest team bat speed, the Blue Jays also rank dead last in blast contact rate. MLB defines a “blast” as a hard swing (at 75 MPH or faster) with contact efficiency. Blue Jays hitters have a combined 11.4% blast contact rate as a team.

The biggest offenders on the team are Biggio (3.1%), Clement (4.5%), Turner (5.6%), IKF (5.8%), Kirk (10%) and Daulton Varsho (10.5%).

Varsho not squaring things up

After a disappointing 2023 campaign, Varsho is looking more like the player the Blue Jays acquired from the Diamondbacks. Despite that, Varsho finds himself among the lowest squared-up contact rate among qualified hitters at 15.6%.

Even with the adjustments he’s made at the plate, Varsho still isn’t maximizing his potential at the plate, but he’s still slugging .430 this season. If he can mosey just a fraction towards the sweet spot, he should unlock even more big fly potential.