What the loss of frontline Red Sox starter means for club

Boston Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is unlikely to pitch this season after undergoing a successful repair on his throwing elbow Tuesday, per MLB.com's Ian Browne. Giolito had been sidelined since March 5 after feeling elbow discomfort in his throwing arm.

Giolito's surgery included a right elbow ulnar collateral ligament repair with an internal brace. This differs from Tommy John surgery and he could be ready to pitch again by Opening Day 2025.

Giolito becomes the Red Sox' third offseason pitching acquisition now expected to miss most or all of the 2024 season, which is clearly a huge problem for a team that finished in the basement of the AL East with a 78-84 record last year. 

Boston signed reliever Michael Fulmer on Feb. 8, but he isn't expected to pitch until next season following UCL revision surgery in October. The Sox also signed All-Star closer Liam Hendriks on Feb. 20, but he is expected to miss most of the 2024 season as he continues to recover from this past August's Tommy John surgery. 

Boston's rotation now looks a lot like the one that struggled last season. Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford have secured the first three spots, but the team must rely on younger talent to fill out the rotation. Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Josh Winckowski and Cooper Criswell will continue to battle for the last two openings over the remainder of spring training. 

The loss of Giolito looks likely to cause a domino effect throughout the starting rotation, which eventually could make its way to the bullpen. 

Giolito was signed to front the rotation and eat up innings, but with him gone, someone must step up. Pivetta is the only pitcher currently on the staff who has thrown as many as 179 innings in a season, with Bello right behind at 163. The rest of the staff doesn't even come close, which could lead to the bullpen making up a lot of the innings.

Giolito receiving the internal brace rather than Tommy John surgery was the best-case scenario for Boston, according to manager Alex Cora.

"Go through the process and hopefully he gets back sooner rather than later, whenever that is," Cora said, per Browne. "I do believe it was the best-case scenario. ... We don't know how rehab is gonna go, but the hope is for him to be ready whenever he's ready."

Giolito, 29, is guaranteed $18 million in 2024 and can opt into the second year of his contract for $19 million next season. The contract also contains a structured buyout for 2026 and an additional $1 million in performance bonuses. The bonuses are determined by the number of innings pitched next season (150-180), which may be in jeopardy depending on if he can return by the start of 2025. 

With Giolito officially ruled out, the Red Sox will probably turn to either Pivetta, Crawford or Bello to start on Opening Day on March 28 at the Seattle Mariners.