Why Won't the Cardinals Pay Albert?

Look, it's understandable that negotiations take multiple rounds to get done. After all, what is a negotiation when one side has all the bargaining power? Right, the NFL. Anyways, this contract or no contract talk is getting to the brink of ridiculous, though, and I discussed a few posts back why Albert Pujols should expect to make $30 M a year. He's worth that much as a player and worth probably 15-25% more as a team icon. It's not arm-wringing by an agent - it's market value for one of the best players in the past 50 years.

Buster Olney at ESPN reported today on what could happen at the February 19th deadline Albert has set for negotiations to end:

The understanding within the St. Louis front office is that Pujols will not accept any trade going forward, according to sources. He has the right to veto any trade proposal, and would do so.

This means there are only two possible results in the negotiations in the Pujols talks: Either he signs a contract extension with the Cardinals, or he will become a free agent this coming fall.

We don't know what exactly Pujols and his agent have been bargaining for, but we can surmise from the collective minds of baseball writers that it will probably be in the $240-$275 M range. The Cardinals are wise to want to take time negotiating from their perspective, and if I were them, I'd make sure it's front-loaded deal that takes advantage of his value now.

Since A-Rod's contract is the standard comparison, let's look at how it's structured.

2008: $27 M
2009: $32 M (+18.5% Increase)
2010: $32 M (0%)
2011: $31 M (-3.13% Decrease)
2012: $29 M (-6.45%)
2013: $28 M (-3.45%)
2014: $25 M (-10.71%)
2015: $21 M (-16%)
2016: $20 M (-4.76%)
2017: $20 M (0%)
Total: $265 M + $10 M Signing Bonus; Average: $27.5 M

The total decrease in value from the peak in year 2 to 2017 is 37.5%.

I'm going to peg Albert at $30 M a year for 8 years. I'm also going to say he gets a salary increase to $20 M this year + signing bonus of $10 M.

2011: $25 M
2012: $35 M (+40.0%)
2013: $35 M (0%)
2014: $32 M (-8.57%)
2015: $30 M (-6.25%)
2016: $28 M (-6.67%)
2017: $24 M (-14.29%)
2018: $21 M (-12.5%)
Total: $230 M + $10 M Signing Bonus; Average: $30 M

The total decrease in value from peak to end is 40%.

That's just one uninformed person's take on what the next contract might look like. Even if Albert regresses to around 4-5 WAR by the end of the contract (think Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez last year), he still will be making right around market value for his production.

Personally, I still have faith that a deal gets done. There's a lot of skepticism out there, but I attribute that to people wanting to be skeptical to increase their own Pujolsian chances. Typical.

Mr. DeWitt, please pay Albert.