Originally posted on Mets360.com  |  Last updated 1/24/14
Statistical analysts have been saying for years now that stolen bases are not only overvalued, but that caught stealing is a tremendous loss of value. The logic behind that statement seems pretty solid. A team only gets 27 outs to score runs, and getting caught stealing takes one of those precious few outs away. Additionally, stolen bases don’t immediately translate into runs. As a very basic marker, take a look at two Mets’ seasons. The team led baseball in 2007 by stealing an even 200 bags, thanks largely to Jose Reyes’ 78. The Mets scored 804 runs that year, 10th best in baseball. However, in 2009 the Mets struggled offensively with Reyes hurt and scored only 671 runs for 25th in baseball. The team had 122 SBs though, still sixth best that year. While the total stolen bases are obviously quite different, the success rate is the more important stat to consider. In 2007, the Mets stole 78 more bases than they did in 2009, and were only caught two more times. That SB/CS percentage ...
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