Yankees fans may not be accustomed to having so many question marks heading into the season, but Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman certainly seems pretty calm with the process. He has good reason to be calm. While the Yankees are having open auditions for two spots in their rotation and hoping that AJ Burnett finds his pre-2010 form under new Pitching Coach Larry Rothschild, Cashman’s desire to make the Yankees less dependent on the free agent market and more self sufficient is a year away from taking hold. Sure, he offered Cliff Lee a ton of money, but if one reads Cashman’s prior quotes, he is not a fan of long term contracts. On more than once occasion, Cashman has stated his desire to make the Yankees more like the Minnesota Twins with talent constantly moving up the system and taking the place of an expensive veteran who most likely won’t be able to live up to the bloated contract. The difference will obviously be the fact that the Yankees can afford to keep those veterans if they choose. The Twins constantly develop their own pitching. The Yankees are the verge.
But, the plan is still a year away. Young pitching prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos will likely begin the year in double-A despite being the two most impressive pitchers in camp at this point. There are also high end prospects such as Andrew Brackman, Adam Warren, and current rotation favorite Ivan Nova. With the exception of Nova, none of the prospects are being counted on to contribute this season. Perhaps one of them forces the issue later in the season, but for now Cashman seems content to have Joe Girardi pick two starters from a group that includes Nova along with veteran castoffs Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Sergio Mitre.
He should be content.
While it has become the norm for the Yankees to enter a season with every position essentially locked up, most teams enter spring training with position battles and rotation battles. The Yankees do have an extreme case for a number of reasons. They do have the highest payroll in the league, giving the perception that the payroll disparity should at least insure that each key roster spot be covered. They have also had no trouble signing the premier free agent every season. They whiffed on Cliff Lee, making Andy Pettitte’s retirement even more important as now there were two holes to fill. And, the Yankees haven’t been a team that has liked uncertainty. But, most teams enter a season with a degree of uncertainty. The Red Sox are portrayed as having zero issues, but a closer look does reveal potential pitching problems once they get past Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Similarly, the Yankees have the same types of questions once they get past CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. It’s normal despite reaction that the Yankees final two rotation will definitely cost them a playoff berth. The Yankees still have enough to win the World Series. Brian Cashman knows it.
With the certainty of Sabathia and the general feeling that Phil Hughes is the Yankees equivalent to Clay Buchholz, the rest of the rotation will likely be a work in progress that won’t truly be finished until 2012 when Betances and Banuelos take their spots in the rotation or Cashman makes a trade for a high end, established starting pitcher. 2011 does hinge on AJ Burnett. He has always been a streaky pitcher, never really able to put an entire season together. 2010 was different in that his streaks were extreme. He was dominant at the start of the season, had a long, bizarre stretch, pitched better, and then fell apart. He is a hard worker and does care. Perhaps Rothschild’s voice can provide Burnett with more consistency. If he does, the importance of the fourth and fifth starters diminishes slightly. 2010 was likely an aberration for Burnett given the extremes of his streaks. The Yankees can expect more of what they saw in 2009. He’ll dominate at times, look awful at times, but give enough to be an average third starter.
The fourth and fifth spots are where the Yankees become like most other teams who are waiting for their system to catch up. Sergio Mitre is likely the long man out of the bullpen. He has an outside chance of making the rotation, but that result would be more about what Nova, Garcia, and Colon failed to do. The optimal setup for the Yankees would be to have Garcia and Colon win the rotation spots to begin the season, allowing Nova to begin the season at triple-A Scranton. Teams like to build depth in the rotation to account for injuries. Having Nova at triple-A allows for that. The Yankees would not only have Mitre at the Major League level for spot start duty, but Nova at the ready while still being able to refine his arsenal. Nova pitched well last season, but he does have more to prove. In four seasons, Nova has ascended the Yankees system. But, he has averaged 3 walks per nine innings and just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The latter number looks better than the reality as he’s had two seasons, 2007 and 2009, where he averaged under six strikeouts per nine innings. His 10 game stint at the Major League level produced more of the same—3.6 walks per nine innings and 5.57 strikeouts. He is, however, a groundball pitcher (1.69 GB/FB), but one who didn’t miss many bats. The Yankees like his poise, but Nova will have to miss some more bats to have more longterm success. At just 24 years old, there is reason for hope, but in all likelihood, Nova projects to give the Yankees a similar season that Freddy Garcia gave the Chicago White Sox in 2010. That may ultimately ticket Nova to Triple-A to give the Yankees that depth needed. It all depends on if the two veterans can show enough in the Spring.
Can Garcia be a league average pitcher? The Yankees need him to be.
Garcia does look to have the inside track for one of the jobs. After being one of the more durable pitchers from 1999 through 2006, Garcia struggled with injuries from 2007 through 2009, never making more than 11 starts in any of those seasons. He made 28 starts in 2010 for the Chicago White Sox, winning 12 games along with a 4.64 ERA in 157 innings. He walked 2.58 batters per nine innings while striking out just 5.69 per nine, about one strikeout less than his career average. But, given the fact that it was his first full season back and that all of his contact rates were similar to his career average, there is hope for a slightly better season. A slightly better season would make him a league average pitcher, something that is good enough considering the Yankees offense projects to be one of the top three in the sport.
Garcia also looks like he has learned how to pitch despite averaging just 87.8 MPH with his fastball last season. He threw his fastball just 30 percent of the time, significantly less than his 51 percent career average. Instead, he’s relied on his slider, split fingered fastball, and curveball a bit more, while making much more use of a changeup, thrown 22.8 percent of the time in 2010. That pitch selection allowed him to maintain a swing and miss rate of pitches thrown in the strike zone of 11.4 percent, which is right around the league average. Given that he is the most accomplished pitcher from 2010 in the battle for a rotation spot, it seems likely that Garcia gets a job.
Bartolo Colon is a more interesting case. The former Cy Young Award winner didn’t pitch in 2010, but drew interest based on his winter league performance. He hasn’t pitched more than 99 innings since 2005, his Cy Young season. A look at his career shows someone who was durable and capable leading a staff. From 1998 through 2005, he averaged 215 innings per season. That came with a 3.85 ERA and 3.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, and 1.297 WHIP. Those results came from relying on a fastball-slider combination. While it appeared that he lost velocity in 2009 with the White Sox, he did hit 93 MPH with his fastball during his first spring training start. As is always been the case, physical conditioning is an issue with Colon. That appears to be even more so considering that he is 38 years old and the heaviest he has ever been. But, the winter league performance drew interest and he did nothing to sway that interest during his first two innings of the spring. He still is a long shot, but it would behoove the Yankees if he was able to earn the spot.
Heading into the season with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon as rotation members is less than ideal. But, that’s just it: the Yankees are heading into the season with them. They are two pitchers who may be able to give the Yankees a couple of months of league average pitching. With Garcia, perhaps it can be an entire season of league average pitching. Their presence allows Brian Cashman to do a few things. First, he is able to stockpile by having Nova available in Triple-A and Mitre in the bullpen. Second, it allows Cashman time to wade through the trade market. The veterans don’t have to give 162 games. They have to give Cashman some time, perhaps a month or two in order to figure out the rotation that can carry them into the playoffs. It gives time to evaluate AJ Burnett. If Burnett is the 2010 version, Cashman will have to sell some of his farm chips for a second ace such as Francisco Liriano. But, if Burnett reverts back to his career norm, Cashman can acquire a back of the rotation starter for far less. The time could also lead to Betances or Banuelos getting their chance. Garcia and Colon are not permanent fixtures. They are merely the temps brought in to bridge the gap to something more effective .
Obviously, Cashman is hoping that one or both are reborn to their forms shown a decade ago. But, the Yankees don’t need that. They need league average results over five or six innings. For the team that led the American League in runs scored last season, league average pitching from the backend of the rotation may be more than enough.
Whenever an organization develops their own high end talent, there are gaps at the Major League level. The Yankees are at that gap. Next season, that talent will be ready, allowing the Yankees to lower costs and still having that same chance to win because of superior talent. Betances and Banuelos have the tools; they’ll continue to develop this season. Meanwhile Brian Cashman has done what all small market General Managers do. He’s brought in multiple candidates who can be a short term solutions. But, unlike the small market General Managers, Cashman doesn’t have to depend on the short term candidates for an entire season. He will have the ability to trade prospects for a legitimate starter and his salary. He has made the Yankees exactly what he was hoping for. They enter the season like the Twins normally do with a couple of roster questions. The difference is that they have the money to fix what doesn’t work.
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http://fullcountpitch.com/2011/03/02/...
