The
Ultimate Fighting Championship built its first
post-UFC 300 pay-per-view with the sole purpose of thrilling a home
crowd. Taking to Rio de Janeiro for the first time in more than a
year, matchmaking was intentional, as each bout features a
Brazilian against a foreign opponent. The lines reflect this
billing accordingly, as most local fighters are favored, with five
currently available above -400. Join the
UFC
301 edition of Prime Picks, as we swing from tree to tree in
the crowded show, grabbing hold of a vine of the current champion
while not letting go of one of a former kingpin.
STRAIGHT-UP CASH
The rise of
Steve Erceg
has been as unexpected as it has been speedy, and there remain
questions as to how he will perform against someone in the Top 5 or
higher. By crushing
Matt
Schnell, Erceg earned a chance to try; it just so happens that
the number in that five was one due to a strange flyweight title
picture. The Aussie answered what would happen when his bell was
rung, as Schnell cleanly connected on him in the first round of
their encounter. He did not lose his composure. Instead, he took
the necessary time to clear his head by pursuing a takedown and
returning to business. Unfortunately for Erceg, in his fourth UFC
appearance, he runs into the buzz saw that is Pantoja, and there is
value in “The Cannibal” until he reaches -200, if not the mid-200
range.
The 28-year-old Erceg has the energy reserves to go three hard
rounds, as evidenced by his matches against
Alessandro
Costa and
David
Dvorak—the latter on short notice—but those appearances saw him
largely in the driver’s seat. The onus will be on “Astro Boy” to
push Pantoja back, making the champion uncomfortable fighting off
the back foot while measuring his stunningly effective jab. The jab
can help him disrupt the high-volume, high-intensity Pantoja as he
leaps into action, and he can set up additional strikes behind it.
If he ever hurts Pantoja, allowing him to recover would be the
worst idea, as the Brazilian has shown to come back strong from
both fatigue and damage.
Pantoja is as fearless as he is tough, and he can surge forward
hurling strikes, only to suddenly change levels where he takes you
to the mat and secures a body triangle around your back in the
blink of an eye. Scrambles do not bother Pantoja in the slightest,
as he threatens with any submission he can find. It can work
against him if he decides to play jiu-jitsu for too long rather
than advance position, and Erceg could put him on his back and
maintain top control. For Erceg to win, he will have to be perfect
for the entirety of the fight. On the other hand, Pantoja does not
necessarily have to be on his game for all 25 minutes, and he even
intentionally takes time off to ensure his wild and crazy strategy
does not burn him out. The Aussie may be a champion one day, but
not yet.
STRAIGHT-UP PASS
MMA retirements never stick. When
Jose Aldo said
farewell to the sport at 35, many shrugged it off, given that
losing to
Merab
Dvalishvili was his first setback since vying for the
bantamweight throne two years earlier. Aldo proved he still wanted
to hit people by leapfrogging into boxing, and a questionable draw
with
Jeremy
Stephens followed by a one-sided win at home showed Aldo did
not slip too many gears. Back in MMA again, he faces what some have
oversimplified as a younger version of himself—an unfair and
inaccurate comparison other than Martinez’ predilection of leg
kicks, a famed Aldo weapon. “The King of Rio” showed before coming
up short to Dvalishvili that he could hang with Top 10 talent, with
victories over
Marlon Vera,
Pedro
Munhoz and
Rob Font
nothing to sneeze at. The younger Martinez could pull off the win,
but a straight kickboxing match against the greatest featherweight
of all-time is a dangerous proposition.
Unfortunately, the UFC could not put together Aldo-
Dominick
Cruz instead of this Martinez fight, and it does not make the
most sense unless the Factory X rep puts it all together to make a
run at gold. Beating Aldo would be a massive feather in his cap,
even if the Brazilian is not imminently relevant at 135 pounds. For
“Dragon” to pull this off, he must be the more active of the two,
beating Aldo to the punch while not getting drawn into a straight
kick-for-kick encounter. With Aldo’s prowess in his lower limbs, he
accurately and viciously strikes with them but also has the
wherewithal to deflect those same strikes aimed at his legs.
Neither Munhoz nor Vera could get going in that regard, and Aldo
could shut down and make Martinez pay for naked kicks. Aldo is
primed to pull off an upset and one more triumphant performance in
front of legions of his fans. There are better options on the card
than to put scratch down on Martinez.
’DOG WILL HUNT
Aldo very nearly qualified for this list, but given how many wide
lines are on display ahead of this event, he was beaten out by
other names.
Paul Craig
was the initial name to throw on this section, as he and
Gerald
Meerschaert are perhaps the reason that this category was
created in the first place. Unfortunately for Craig, he will be met
by a well-schooled judoka and Brazilian jiu-jitsu player in
Caio
Borralho who does not make the type of mental lapse the
Scotsman can capitalize on. Instead, we turn to a former title
challenger and ultraviolent contender in Smith, who, despite 15
stoppage losses on his ledger, can still pull off wins over
legitimate opposition with grit and determination, if nothing else.
At these odds, “Lionheart” is worth a swing, and Smith Wins Inside
Distance at +650 could also merit consideration.
The 26-year-old unbeaten Petrino is quietly working his way up the
light heavyweight ladder, but it is a mighty step up from
Tyson Pedro
to Smith. The steps have been gradual and intentional so that he
does not bite off more than he can chew as he continues to grow and
develop. Solid fundamentals and a decent amount of power behind his
swings help, although he does not pick his shots as carefully as he
should and has gotten stung in the past. Should Petrino get the
fight down and start dropping ground-and-pound, he could maul Smith
and look all of the -600 favorite he purports to be. With his back
against the wall, Smith’s craftiness and ability to snatch victory
from the jaws of defeat make him an especially hazardous foe. Those
to beat the Factory X product have been elite talents, and Petrino
has the chance to cement himself as one of those if he can validate
the bettors pushing him up so high.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION
Aldo-Martinez Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-525)
Smith-Petrino Ends Inside Distance (-230)
Total Odds: +114
With some favorites at the prohibitive range—unless coupled in a
parlay, which is an option—the options slim down, and these three
make sense and come together with a theme. As we often present in
this three-piece accumulator, time is the measure in which we
select our plays. These prop bets are widely available at every
legitimate sportsbook, compared to some more narrow options like
bouts starting certain rounds or a competitor finishing the fight
in the latter half of the match. Two of those will be fights
discussed above, providing different angles to approach that
supplement and do not conflict with our picks. The first is between
Aldo and Martinez, making all the sense in the world that this is a
prolonged affair that at least reaches 7:30. With Aldo needing to
get his footing beneath him again and neither man a quick-strike
knockout artist of late, the durability of these gentlemen mean it
will last a while.
Like Aldo and Martinez, the expectation is that Smith-Petrino will
last long. Unlike that featherweight contest, conventional wisdom
and history dictate that this light heavyweight clash will end
violently and suddenly. With the line of -230 for a stoppage of any
kind, it does not need to be drilled down to an under of 2.5 or 1.5
rounds and instead is the key to getting this trio into plus-money
territory. Smith maintains a finish rate of 92%, and conversely, he
has only heard the final bell in four of his 19 losses. Petrino can
punch an opponent’s lights out or establish top control while he
rains down fire and brimstone until the referee pulls him off.
Whether it is Smith springing the unexpected victory or Petrino
punishing the aging contender, a stoppage of any kind is all that
is needed.
Kicking off this parlay is a preliminary matchup between a former
title challenger in Kowalkiewicz and a woman 16 years her
junior—around the same gap as
Roxanne
Modafferi-
Maycee
Barber. The Polish woman has found new life training at
American Top Team with former opponent
Joanna
Jedrzejczyk and has developed new facets of her game at the
ripe age of 38. Despite that, her matches have tended to go long,
especially when getting her hand raised. The same can be said for
the youngster, who has hit this over in all three appearances on
the major stage. Tougher opposition likely leads to longer matches,
and the victor is immaterial as long as it passes the midpoint of
the second stanza. These three selections tie together for a return
that will double the input without anything objectionable, and that
is the way to take home the gold.