UFC 300 odds, pick and prediction for Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller: Early-week play on underdog for 4/13

Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller Odds

I blindly went into this breakdown thinking my pick would be Green via decision. But as I worked my way through the problem, I kept seeing more and more openings for Miller to pull off an upset as a moderate-sized underdog.

I actually sat cageside for UFC 100 nearly 15 years ago and watched Miller defeat Mac Danzig. The fact Miller is still kicking around – after a decade-long battle with Lyme disease, no less – is impressive. The fact he's on a 5-1 run with four stoppage victories heading into UFC 300? That's remarkable.

But it's also a testament to his evolved style. Miller has always had good jiu-jitsu, but with the addition of some late-career power, he can make opponents equally uncomfortable on their feet. Granted, Miller is often too willing to stand and trade in the pocket, and that could be problematic against Green, who should have a speed, accuracy and creativity edge in the striking changes.

Tale of the Tape

Still, Miller's durability has been a hallmark of his career. In 55 career fights, he's been stopped by strikes only twice. He can eat some of Green's power and survive to find openings.

The key, though, is that Miller needs to do some damage to make those striking exchanges worth it.

A few years ago, the combination of Green's striking and Miller's durability would've easily led me to a betting prediction of "Green via decision." But there are a few reasons I'm going with Miller.

For one, I worry about Green's chin after Jalin Turner badly knocked him out very, very badly – seemingly multiple times –in a fight just four months ago.

That was Green's third knockout loss in the past two years. Chins don't magically improve. In fact, the bottom often falls out on them precipitously.

Additionally, as my colleague Billy Ward reminded me, Green can be an entertaining fighter – but actually winning the fight? That's usually third on his priority list right behind "having fun" and "doing cool stuff."

Some fighters fight for your betting dollars and pull out all the stops. But other fighters can dance and clown away your money instead. I could see Green's head movement and Philly shell entertaining the crowd – while simply presenting openings for Miller's low kicks and body shots to do some real damage.

Finally, Miller is going to be the crowd favorite. He's the feel-good story of UFC 300. If this fight goes to the judges, the crowd will have done everything in its power to motivate Miller, sway the optics, and swing the scorecards in his favor.

Green vs. Miller Pick

As of this writing, prop markets haven't opened for Green vs. Miller. But I'm not getting fancy with this pick anyway.

At worst, I think Miller wins this fight about 45% of the time (fair odds of +122). So I'm putting a half unit on Miller's moneyline, which DraftKings has available at the +154 odds (39.3%). I'd play it down to +135.

Just a few days ago, most sportsbooks had Miller in the +160 to +165 range. I don't know if other bettors are seeing what I'm seeing or if they just want a little J.F.M. action on a historic night. (Either way, I get it.)

You probably don't want to wait much longer since lines could continue to move. But keep it small and hope Miller still has some magic left on this big night.

The Pick: Jim Miller (+154 at DraftKings) | Play to +135