UFC Vegas 92 odds, pick and prediction for Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy main event for Sat. 5/18

Here's everything you need to know about the Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy odds at UFC Vegas 92 on Saturday, May 18 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

The UFC will return to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas this Saturday for an important main event in the featherweight division between No. 12 ranked contender Edson Barboza and undefeated Englishman Lerone Murphy.

Barboza will make his 30th walk to the UFC octagon on Saturday – and his fifth appearance in a main event or five-fight fight, after defeating Sodiq Yusuff across 25 minutes this past October.

Conversely, Murphy has never been scheduled for a five-round matchup or fought past the 15-minute mark in his professional career. After a draw in his UFC debut in 2019, Murphy has won five consecutive bouts, most recently recording a decision victory over Josh Culibao in London.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 92 main event and utilize those factors to bet on Barboza vs. Murphy, who should make their cage walks at approximately 8:55 p.m. ET (5:55 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.

Tale of the Tape

Barboza is the taller and longer fighter with a two-inch advantage in height and reach.

Murphy is the younger and quicker athlete – six years Edson's junior – but he's still on the wrong side of the aging curve for the division (the average age is 31). That said, he's closer to his physical prime while Barboza has shown signs of physical decline while getting knocked down in two of his past three fights.

Overall, this fight will have a similar dynamic to Barboza's recent fight with Yusuff. Barboza is the more technical striker, has a higher fight IQ, has faced a far more difficult strength of schedule, and has five-round experience.

Meanwhile, Murphy is taking a significant step up in class and has a big athleticism advantage. Still, it's hard to pinpoint where he has the advantages in MMA skill aside from wrestling, and he may need to manage his gas tank across five rounds.

Murphy doesn't want to strike with Barboza for the duration. He may be able to hurt the older fighter and win via KO, but he'd be giving Barboza his best chance of winning this matchup too. Instead, Murphy will look to wrestle (career 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, 46% accuracy) and keep the Brazilian flat on his back (spent 11:28 getting controlled by Mitchell).

Historically, Edson has strong takedown defense (75%) and a good getup game, but his explosiveness from the bottom seems to be lacking at this stage of his career. If Murphy can consolidate takedowns, that could be the end of that round in his favor.

Does the Englishman have the ability to wrestle for five rounds, however, or will Barboza find moments of success in this fight?

In that matchup against Yusuff, Barboza proved that he's still willing to fight through adversity at this career stage. He may face more early in this matchup; Murphy's speed and athleticism could put the future UFC Hall of Famer in danger from the opening bell.

As a result, I think you either bet Murphy's finish props pre-fight or look for a live entry on Barboza after Round 1.

Barboza vs. Murphy Pick

In this matchup, I projected Lerone Murphy as a 57.8% favorite (-137 implied odds). Barboza is a popular underdog selection this week, getting picked to win the fight between 52-57% of the time at average odds closer to +130 or 42.2% implied.

I expect this fight to reach a decision 49% of the time (+105 implied odds) and don't see value concerning the total.

Moreover, I don't show value on any winning method props, though Barboza by decision (projected +493, listed +500 at BetRivers) technically qualifies for specific books.

Look to live bet Barboza anytime after Round 1. Murphy doesn't have lousy cardio, but I do trust Barboza's fight IQ to work his way back into the matchup across a 25-minute fight, and he's most likely to get finished in the opening frame if it happens.

The Pick: Edson Barboza Live Anytime After Round 1