Josh Smith: 2009-10 Breakout Candidate

Now that Josh Smith has renounced the three-point shot, the discussion about what this means for 2009-10 centers on whether the relatively small number of three-pointers Smith attempts will be replaced by shots he's more likely to make.First let's look at Smith's overall shooting percentages. The graph below shows Smith's career eFG% and TS% at the conclusion of each of his five seasons.(click on graph to enlarge)Without eliminating, either by pronouncement or action, the three-point field goal Smith has steadily improved both his eFG% and TS% over the last three seasons. How so? By reducing the percentage of his field goal attempts which are two-point jump shots.(click on graph to enlarge)Reducing the two-point jump shots helps because, though Smith makes a higher percentage of those than his three-point attempts, the difference is not enough to overcome the difference in value between the two shots.(click on graph to enlarge)For his career, Smith has made 36.2% of ...