Carlos Boozer, Utah Jazz
Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks
Tayshaun Prince, Detroit Pistons
I listed them in alphabetical order by first name, so let's start with Carlos the Jackal.
Boozer was not part of the team in 2006, but did take part in the 2004 Olympic disaster. Four years ago, Boozer was a spry 22 year old, and actually bounced back from the Olympics by playing 34 minutes for the second straight year and increasing his scoring by more than 2 points. But - oh wait! - that was the year he left the Cavaliers and LeBron James for the Alaskan Wilderness Look-A-Like that is Utah.
Boozer did play a career high tying 81 games last season, and had a career high number of points per game. He doesn't rely on quickness like fellow Olympians Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and Kobe Bryant, so his game shouldn't suffer too much from playing a few extra games over the summer. And it's not like the Jazz have any choice but to keep feeding him the ball in the post. It's not like they have LeBron James or anything.
Carmelo Anthony has rolled with the men's national teams through two world-level competitions and both times, his numbers have dropped in the follow year. After the Olympics in 2004, Melo played 2 less minutes per game and his numbers dipped slightly. After the Worlds in '06, though, Melo played an additional minute and a half per game, increasing his scoring by almost 2.5 points, while grabbing an extra rebound+, and also getting an extra assist. Of course, that was also the year that the Nuggets got Allen Iverson, and their scoring as a team increased by 5 points per game. But, I think whatever data we use, it's safe to say that Carmelo will have his usual fantasy production in 08-09.
Chris Bosh's numbers were almost exactly the same from 05-06 to 06-07, so I'm not worried about his fantasy production this coming season. What I am worried about is that his blocks went down from 1.3 to 1.0 from 06-07 to 07-08 which means that an already porous interior defense is going to be that much more wide open in the middle.
Chris Paul is already this season's consensus #1 fantasy pick. I'm not one to want to be punched in the face, but I'm sure if Chris Paul spent as much time getting a chub looking at pictures of Patrick as the other way around, he would not be a #1 fantasy pick. And he'd probably have to skip the Olympics.
Paul did suffer some injuries after the 2006 World Championships and only played in 64 games. That said, he did finish with a GMTR Player Rater score that was 27% higher than whatever kind of knowledge was in 2nd place. The difference between 2nd and 3rd place was only 12.5% just to give you an idea of the size of Chris Paul's massive game.
Deron Williams is another young guy who upped his game after the summer of 2006. The extra 7 minutes of playing time probably didn't hurt. Williams will be a late 3rd/early 4th round pick.
Dwyane Wade is the first real question mark here. After the 2004 Olympics, he went from 61 to 77 games. But if I recall, he didn't play a whole lot over there in Athens. After playing 75 games in 05-06, he only got to 51 in 06-07, suggesting perhaps that the extra play might have taken a toll. Yes, it was a bit of a fluke play in which he was injured, but this time he'll be playing during the summer on a surgically repaired knee. I know I'll be staying away from Wade come fantasy draft time this year.
Dwight Howard won't even be 23 until December of this year. After the 2006 games, he improved almost everything about his game except free throw shooting and turnovers. Hopefully he can learn some more lessons from the Olympics this year and come away an even better basketball player. I don't think he's going to suddenly figure out how to shoot free throws in China, though.
If the extra games this summer are going to take their toll on anyone, it will be Jason Kidd. The last time Kidd played in the Olympics was eight years ago, and at that time, it didn't have an appreciably impact his stats. With Chris Paul and Deron Williams on the team, the US will probably keep Kidd's minutes fairly low, using him in crunch time situations and for resting the other Point Guards. That said, he is 35 years old now, so any activity as intense as the Olympics will definitely drain the batteries a bit. Is it enough to move Kidd out of the Top 50 fantasy players? Probably not... but it's certainly a reason not to take him any higher that #47 position he ended the season at on the GMTR Player Rater.
Kobe Bryant is the one player I feel should be on the floor all the time for the US. Well, Kobe and Chris Paul and LeBron James. Kobe will turn 30 this year, and I feel like if he plays as much as he should in the Olympics, it will have an effect on his game. Add in that the Lakers should have both Pau Gasol and a healthy Andrew Bynum in 08-09, and you've got a recipe for Kobe as no higher than the 3rd best fantasy player next season. I will definitely be tempted to look at guys like LeBron and Garnett ahead of Kobe next year, but we'll have to see how many minutes he's playing in Beijing first.
LeBron James needs to dominate the Olympics and take over like he does in the playoffs. Really, if it takes the Celtics to stop him in the NBA, what country can come up with that kind of defense? LeBron will be a Top 5 fantasy pick next season unless he gets injured. And even then...
As far as Wikipedia knows, Michael Redd has not played on a men's national basketball team. I don't see him doing a lot of the heavy lifting on this Team USA, though. He'll have some good games at The Games because he can pull the trigger on the three as fast as anyone not named Ray Allen. He'll be good to stretch defenses, and as long as he doesn't take so many shots that he gets Repetitive Stress Disorder, he will be able to bomb threes and make a lot of free throws just like the Michael Redd we all know and are okay with.
I was surprised when I checked just now to see Tayshaun Prince all the way down at #110 on the GMTR Player Rater. I thought he was better than that. But he played about 4 minutes less in 07-08 than he had in the previous season, and his numbers were down across the board. I was also surprised to see him on the Olympic roster instead of another legit center. But I'm sure the people picking the team know more than I do about international basketball, as well as who was actually available for the team.
I don't see Prince being called on to play heavy minutes for Team USA, so keeping up his level of play at 32-33 minutes a game for the Pistons shouldn't be a problem. That's not to say that his stats won't go down, because Detroit might drop him to 30-31 minutes a game and let the younger Pistons play a little more. But his play for Team USA will probably only have an effect when it gets to the end of the season, right when you need to win some playoff games. And Prince had his minutes dropped at the end of the after the Pistons had clinched their spot in the playoffs. There may well be some more rest time like that at the end of the 08-09 season for Prince.
So, to summarize, the question marks for next season are: Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, and Kobe Bryant. And you might want to stay away from Tayshaun Prince unless you draft someone you think will be stepping up at the end of the season when Prince is tapering off.
Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks
Tayshaun Prince, Detroit Pistons
I listed them in alphabetical order by first name, so let's start with Carlos the Jackal.
Boozer was not part of the team in 2006, but did take part in the 2004 Olympic disaster. Four years ago, Boozer was a spry 22 year old, and actually bounced back from the Olympics by playing 34 minutes for the second straight year and increasing his scoring by more than 2 points. But - oh wait! - that was the year he left the Cavaliers and LeBron James for the Alaskan Wilderness Look-A-Like that is Utah.
Boozer did play a career high tying 81 games last season, and had a career high number of points per game. He doesn't rely on quickness like fellow Olympians Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, and Kobe Bryant, so his game shouldn't suffer too much from playing a few extra games over the summer. And it's not like the Jazz have any choice but to keep feeding him the ball in the post. It's not like they have LeBron James or anything.
Carmelo Anthony has rolled with the men's national teams through two world-level competitions and both times, his numbers have dropped in the follow year. After the Olympics in 2004, Melo played 2 less minutes per game and his numbers dipped slightly. After the Worlds in '06, though, Melo played an additional minute and a half per game, increasing his scoring by almost 2.5 points, while grabbing an extra rebound+, and also getting an extra assist. Of course, that was also the year that the Nuggets got Allen Iverson, and their scoring as a team increased by 5 points per game. But, I think whatever data we use, it's safe to say that Carmelo will have his usual fantasy production in 08-09.
Chris Bosh's numbers were almost exactly the same from 05-06 to 06-07, so I'm not worried about his fantasy production this coming season. What I am worried about is that his blocks went down from 1.3 to 1.0 from 06-07 to 07-08 which means that an already porous interior defense is going to be that much more wide open in the middle.
Chris Paul is already this season's consensus #1 fantasy pick. I'm not one to want to be punched in the face, but I'm sure if Chris Paul spent as much time getting a chub looking at pictures of Patrick as the other way around, he would not be a #1 fantasy pick. And he'd probably have to skip the Olympics.
Paul did suffer some injuries after the 2006 World Championships and only played in 64 games. That said, he did finish with a GMTR Player Rater score that was 27% higher than whatever kind of knowledge was in 2nd place. The difference between 2nd and 3rd place was only 12.5% just to give you an idea of the size of Chris Paul's massive game.
Deron Williams is another young guy who upped his game after the summer of 2006. The extra 7 minutes of playing time probably didn't hurt. Williams will be a late 3rd/early 4th round pick.
Dwyane Wade is the first real question mark here. After the 2004 Olympics, he went from 61 to 77 games. But if I recall, he didn't play a whole lot over there in Athens. After playing 75 games in 05-06, he only got to 51 in 06-07, suggesting perhaps that the extra play might have taken a toll. Yes, it was a bit of a fluke play in which he was injured, but this time he'll be playing during the summer on a surgically repaired knee. I know I'll be staying away from Wade come fantasy draft time this year.
Dwight Howard won't even be 23 until December of this year. After the 2006 games, he improved almost everything about his game except free throw shooting and turnovers. Hopefully he can learn some more lessons from the Olympics this year and come away an even better basketball player. I don't think he's going to suddenly figure out how to shoot free throws in China, though.
If the extra games this summer are going to take their toll on anyone, it will be Jason Kidd. The last time Kidd played in the Olympics was eight years ago, and at that time, it didn't have an appreciably impact his stats. With Chris Paul and Deron Williams on the team, the US will probably keep Kidd's minutes fairly low, using him in crunch time situations and for resting the other Point Guards. That said, he is 35 years old now, so any activity as intense as the Olympics will definitely drain the batteries a bit. Is it enough to move Kidd out of the Top 50 fantasy players? Probably not... but it's certainly a reason not to take him any higher that #47 position he ended the season at on the GMTR Player Rater.
Kobe Bryant is the one player I feel should be on the floor all the time for the US. Well, Kobe and Chris Paul and LeBron James. Kobe will turn 30 this year, and I feel like if he plays as much as he should in the Olympics, it will have an effect on his game. Add in that the Lakers should have both Pau Gasol and a healthy Andrew Bynum in 08-09, and you've got a recipe for Kobe as no higher than the 3rd best fantasy player next season. I will definitely be tempted to look at guys like LeBron and Garnett ahead of Kobe next year, but we'll have to see how many minutes he's playing in Beijing first.
LeBron James needs to dominate the Olympics and take over like he does in the playoffs. Really, if it takes the Celtics to stop him in the NBA, what country can come up with that kind of defense? LeBron will be a Top 5 fantasy pick next season unless he gets injured. And even then...
As far as Wikipedia knows, Michael Redd has not played on a men's national basketball team. I don't see him doing a lot of the heavy lifting on this Team USA, though. He'll have some good games at The Games because he can pull the trigger on the three as fast as anyone not named Ray Allen. He'll be good to stretch defenses, and as long as he doesn't take so many shots that he gets Repetitive Stress Disorder, he will be able to bomb threes and make a lot of free throws just like the Michael Redd we all know and are okay with.
I was surprised when I checked just now to see Tayshaun Prince all the way down at #110 on the GMTR Player Rater. I thought he was better than that. But he played about 4 minutes less in 07-08 than he had in the previous season, and his numbers were down across the board. I was also surprised to see him on the Olympic roster instead of another legit center. But I'm sure the people picking the team know more than I do about international basketball, as well as who was actually available for the team.
I don't see Prince being called on to play heavy minutes for Team USA, so keeping up his level of play at 32-33 minutes a game for the Pistons shouldn't be a problem. That's not to say that his stats won't go down, because Detroit might drop him to 30-31 minutes a game and let the younger Pistons play a little more. But his play for Team USA will probably only have an effect when it gets to the end of the season, right when you need to win some playoff games. And Prince had his minutes dropped at the end of the after the Pistons had clinched their spot in the playoffs. There may well be some more rest time like that at the end of the 08-09 season for Prince.
So, to summarize, the question marks for next season are: Dwyane Wade, Jason Kidd, and Kobe Bryant. And you might want to stay away from Tayshaun Prince unless you draft someone you think will be stepping up at the end of the season when Prince is tapering off.
Original Story:
