Originally written January 28, 2013 on Metta Chronicles:
The Utah Jazz (24-20) look to get their seventh straight home victory tonight as they host the Houston Rockets (24-22) in a game that could play a big role in playoff seeding later on. Utah is coming off a grueling 114-110 OT victory against Indiana, while Houston enters tonight’s game after beating Brooklyn 119-106 on Saturday. Utah and Houston have split the season series so far with the home team winning easily both times. AccuScore simulations have the Jazz as fairly heavy favorites, with approximately a 63 percent chance at getting the win. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 103-100, but Utah does have a 54 percent chance of covering the -3.5 spread. Taking Utah on the money line (they’re 18-5 straight up in their last 23 games at home against Houston), and going under on the total score (206.5) are probably the two best bets in this game. There’s a 57 percent chance the total stays under 206.5; the total has gone under in 4 of Utah’s last 5 games against Houston. What bothers me from Utah’s last game (even though they won) is the rebounding discrepancy: Indiana out-rebounded Utah 41-28. Utah would have lost any other night, but Indiana helped them out by turning the ball over 22 times (leading to 28 Utah points). Indiana is the second best rebounding team in the league behind Denver (total rebounds), but first in rebounding differential (+4.4). Statistically, Houston is just one rebound per game better than Utah, so it probably won’t be much of a factor. With that said, if Houston does find a way to beat Utah on the boards like Indiana did, Utah’s home winning-streak will come to an end very soon. AccuScore projects Utah to grab 3-4 more rebounds than Houston tonight. Can Randy Foye continue destroying the Rockets? Okay, maybe he’s not “destroying” them, but he definitely steps his game up against them. This season against Houston, Foye is averaging 17 ppg on 55% shooting. On the season, he’s averaging just 11 points on 42% shooting, which is exactly what he’s projected to get tonight. Game prediction: Utah by 7 Houston Rockets Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA FT% 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK James Harden 25.6 7.4 18.1 41% 8.5 10.1 85% 2.3 7.0 6.5 1.4 4.3 0.8 5.0 0.5 Chandler Parsons 12.1 4.7 10.5 45% 1.3 1.8 73% 1.4 4.1 3.6 1.2 2.0 1.2 5.7 0.1 Jeremy Lin 11.6 4.2 10.3 41% 2.5 3.2 76% 0.7 2.6 5.7 0.9 2.8 0.6 3.9 0.4 Carlos Delfino 10.5 3.8 9.7 39% 0.9 1.1 79% 2.0 5.6 2.9 1.5 1.7 0.4 3.9 0.1 Omer Asik 9.1 3.6 6.9 52% 1.9 3.7 51% 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 2.1 3.2 10.7 1.4 Patrick Patterson 8.0 3.5 7.3 47% 0.7 1.0 70% 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 4.6 0.6 Marcus Morris 7.9 2.8 7.2 40% 1.1 1.6 68% 1.2 3.5 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 3.6 0.1 Toney Douglas 6.6 2.4 6.3 39% 0.8 0.9 84% 1.0 2.9 2.0 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.7 0.0 Patrick Beverley 4.1 1.4 3.5 40% 0.6 0.8 73% 0.8 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.4 0.3 Greg Smith 3.6 1.6 2.5 63% 0.5 0.9 57% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 3.2 0.4 HOU Benchwarmers 0.5 0.2 0.5 40% 0.1 0.1 70% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 TOTAL 99.6 35.6 82.6 43% 18.7 25.2 74% 9.7 28.8 25.5 8.0 17.1 10.7 44.0 3.8 Utah Jazz Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA FT% 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK Al Jefferson 21.4 9.2 19.1 48% 3.1 4.0 77% 0.0 0.1 2.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 10.4 1.5 Paul Millsap 15.2 5.8 11.5 50% 3.6 4.8 74% 0.1 0.3 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 8.5 1.1 Gordon Hayward 14.1 4.6 10.7 43% 3.9 4.8 81% 1.1 3.0 3.1 1.0 2.0 0.7 3.4 0.7 Randy Foye 11.1 3.8 8.9 42% 1.9 2.2 85% 1.7 4.2 2.7 1.1 1.5 0.3 2.2 0.4 Derrick Favors 8.7 3.3 6.5 50% 2.2 3.2 68% 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 6.1 1.2 Marvin Williams 7.9 2.8 6.3 44% 1.8 2.1 85% 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 4.3 0.1 DeMarre Carroll 6.2 2.4 5.5 44% 1.2 1.6 73% 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 1.3 3.5 0.1 Jamaal Tinsley 5.7 2.3 5.9 39% 0.5 0.6 77% 0.7 2.4 5.5 1.2 2.1 0.3 2.5 0.3 Alec Burks 5.1 1.8 4.5 40% 1.2 1.6 74% 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.1 Enes Kanter 4.3 1.8 3.2 55% 0.7 1.0 73% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 2.5 0.1 Earl Watson 3.3 1.2 3.0 42% 0.6 0.9 71% 0.2 0.9 3.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 2.4 0.2 UT Benchwarmers 0.4 0.2 0.4 45% 0.1 0.1 75% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 TOTAL 103.4 38.9 85.5 46% 20.6 26.9 77% 4.9 14.3 22.7 10.7 14.2 12.0 47.5 5.9   Betting trends via OddsShark Houston Rockets Trends: When playing on Monday are 5-5 Before playing Denver are 2-8 After playing Brooklyn are 5-5 After a win are 7-3 Utah Jazz Trends: When playing on Monday are 4-6 Before playing New Orleans are 6-4 After playing Indiana are 3-7 After a win are 5-5 Rockets @ Jazz trends : The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing Utah The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah’s last 5 games when playing Houston Utah is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Houston _____ All projection data provided by AccuScore
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