Knicks vs. 76ers Game 6 prediction, odds, expert pick for Thursday 5/2

Knicks vs. 76ers Odds

Thursday, May 2, 9 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

New York Knicks

The Knicks didn't play their best game by a long shot on Tuesday, yet still found themselves in a winning position with just a minute remaining.

Things got away from them from there, with their performance at the free-throw line continuing to stick out as a huge issue.

However, there were still plenty of positives to take from the game as a whole.

New York's offense was once again quiet, but its defense continued to look incredibly formidable and led it to the doorstep of a place in the conference semifinals. It held Philly to just 110.9 points per 100 possessions despite allowing a middling 38.5% from 3.

The Knicks did an excellent job of limiting the Sixers to just 48.1% shooting at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass.

That continues to be a theme in this series, as a compromised Joel Embiid has been forced to do a lot of his work offensively from 3 and in the mid-range. The Knicks have defended the rim at a stellar 54.8% clip and have done a decent job around the arc, with the exception of their two losses.

The Knicks weren't fantastic at defending the outside shot this season, sitting in the middle of the league for the duration of the season. But from March until the end of the regular season, they did rank seventh in this regard.

The offensive side of the ball is where the concern really lies. Their scoring proficiency is what led them to the second seed in the East, and they took more shots from 3 than anywhere else.

New York closed the season on a high note from outside, but it's hit a wall over the last two games, with just 27% of all its shots falling.

The tough part here is that the Sixers ranked seventh against the 3 in the month of April after getting Embiid back into the picture. That made life very difficult on their opponents, given that the 76ers sat atop the league in rim defense.

If there's a bright spot here, it's that the Knicks have defended the rim better than their counterparts, and in this series, they've snatched away 52.4% of available rebounds.

Still, it's hard to argue that the Knicks have to knock down more 3s in this game if they want to win, even with how the defense is running. They did manage to shoot 0.8 points better from deep on the road this season, a margin that widened to 3.3 points in the second half.

They also shot 44% from deep in two games played in Philly, compared to shooting 28.8% from outside when hosting the Sixers.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have to be pleased to be in this spot, since their offense has been nowhere to be found aside from an explosion in a big Game 3 win at home after falling into a 2-0 hole.

They had their best shooting game of the series in that one (48.4%), but they also allowed 43.3% to the Knicks and were really incredibly fortunate to come away with that game given the performance of the defense.

On the whole, though, the defense has looked solid over the last two games. Surely some shooting variance will kick in at some point for the Knicks, but Philly can rest its hat on continued dominance in protecting the rim and the fact that it's now won the battle on the glass in two out of the last three games.

It's continued to lean on the 3 in this series, with the majority of its shots coming from out there. The good news is that the Sixers have seen a slight uptick in shooting at home this season, but what was noticeable was a 4.3-point uptick in April after Embiid returned.

It remains to be seen what Embiid can provide this team, however. He's clearly still feeling the effects of the major knee injury — which kept him out for most of the season — and is going through a bout with Bell's palsy on top of that.

He's shot just 36.8% from the field over the last two games and just 20% from deep, though he's still managed to help the Sixers in defending the rim and rebounding, recording six blocks and 26 boards over the last two games.

He's also assisted on 16 buckets, proving his value goes beyond scoring the ball.

Knicks vs. 76ers

Betting Pick & Prediction

We're seeing Embiid's scoring output tail off at the worst time, and even though he's managed to contribute in other areas, Philly is going to need a considerable improvement offensively to comfortably win this game against a Knicks team that's done a great job on defense.

Despite a great month and a half to end the season, the Knicks may not be at their strongest when it comes defending the 3. With that said, they've shown they're the better rebounding team. Despite two poor nights from outside, they still hold the keys in this one due to their success of the glass.

New York's excellent shooting in Philly this season is hard to ignore, especially when you consider it has shot the 3 well away from home. I expect more shots to fall here, and I'm very encouraged by the fact that they've done well to neutralize the Sixers inside.

The poor scoring nights from Embiid are partially due to his physical condition, but we can't lose sight of the excellent job Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa have done down low.

The Knicks remain the better team in this series, and aside from one wild shooting night in Philly — which was fueled by five triples from Embiid (a huge outlier) — they've completely shut down the Sixers' offense.

All they'll need is an average shooting night from outside to wrap this series up. I'd put my money on it coming on the road.

Pick: Knicks ML (+135)