Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks: Analysis, Comparison, Prediction

Los Angeles Clippers: James Harden, Terance Mann, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac

Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford

The Clippers have one of the most versatile starting fives in the NBA, featuring three former MVP-caliber players: James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard. While Kawhi's status for the series is up in the air, the Clippers haven't ruled him out, with coach Ty Lue revealing that Kawhi has practiced with the team. If Kawhi is available, the Clippers will be well-equipped to stop the perimeter brilliance of Doncic and Irving. 

Harden has reduced his scoring output next to the talented offensive players on the Clippers, averaging 16.6 points and 8.5 assists. George is often the go-to scorer of the team and has showcased his wide offensive arsenal while averaging 22.6 points on 41.3% from three this season. Kawhi was surgically efficient for most of the season until a rough stretch after February, though he's averaging 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.6 steals.

Ivica Zubac will be an X-factor if he can keep himself from being played off the court as he has in the past. His 11.7 points and 9.2 rebounds rebound average will be needed to contain the athletic Mavs' bigs. Terance Mann and Doncic already share a rivalry, so it's likely he sees a lot of time in this series, with all his minutes dedicated to stopping Doncic.

The Mavericks found their starting five in February after a season full of injuries and trades, but they've clicked almost instantly. They ended the season 15-1 with their current starting lineup healthy, ranking as the league's best defense in a shocking turnaround from the start of the season.

Doncic is wrapping up one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time, averaging 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists. During this time, he had one of his most dominant performances of the year against the Clippers, putting up 44 points on 21 shots. 

Kyrie averaged 25.6 points and 5.2 assists this season, with this offensive duo being virtually unstoppable. All other players fit perfectly around Doncic, with Gafford having one of the longest streaks of consecutive field goals before nearly replicating that again at the end of the season. His surgical efficiency at the rim and league-leading field goal percentage will be a game-changer.

The versatility of PJ Washington has made him undroppable, even when his offense is not clicking. If Washington is hitting shots, this Mavs five is unstoppable. He's also excelled as a help defender, with Derrick Jones Jr. taking most POA assignments. The Clippers pose an interesting challenge to the Mavericks, but both teams peak at similar levels of how they can dominate both ends of the court.

Advantage: Even

Bench

Los Angeles Clippers: Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell, P.J. Tucker, Daniel Theis, Mason Plumlee, Amir Coffey

Dallas Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dante Exum, Maxi Kleber, Dereck Lively II, Josh Green, Jaden Hardy

The Clippers bring an explosive backcourt punch off their bench with Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell. Powell was an early candidate for sixth man of the year, while Westbrook has been lauded as the possible difference-maker in this series due to his defensive motor and stability. Theis and Plumlee will make for a robust center rotation, with Kai Jones recently signed to add athleticism.

Tim Hardaway Jr. also started the season as a contender for 6MOTY but has fallen off gravely since February, averaging 8.6 points on 35.9% from the field. As a result, Dante Exum has become one of their key bench players, fitting in perfectly as a replacement for Doncic or Irving with his on-ball ability or playing alongside them as a connector. Maxi Kleber will be their small-ball five, with lineups of him and Washington enjoying a +20 net rating. The option Dallas brings off the bench makes them more challenging compared to the Clippers.

Advantage: Dallas Mavericks

Tyronn Lue vs. Jason Kidd

Tyronn Lue helmed the Clippers for their 2021 win over the Mavericks and was an assistant in 2020. He has experience against the Mavericks, outsmarting them in 2021 and coming back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Rick Carlisle's Mavs. This is the first time he'll go up against Jason Kidd, who led Dallas to the Conference Finals in his only playoff appearance with the franchise so far. 

Lue's stability and championship-winning pedigree have been lauded around the NBA in recent years, with Lue stamping his name as one of the best head coaches in the NBA. He's a players' coach and is constantly trying to find ways to maximize his rotations.

Jason Kidd has more inconsistent decision-making while sometimes being over-reliant on his stars to get the team's offense going. His reputation as a defensive coach held up in 2022 and has held up over the last month, but there are far more questions about how he'll coach the Mavs game-to-game as compared to Lue.

Kidd's in-game adjustments can be hit-or-miss, and Lue brings a more stable baseline upon which to rely as a coach. While they're well-matched in coaching talent, Lue's proven body of work with the Clippers outranks Kidd, who may be without a contract next season if the Mavericks lose to LA again. 

Advantage: Tyronn Lue

Los Angeles Clippers Advantages

The Clippers have one of the best three-man combos in the NBA. Even with James Harden's regression, he's still an elite point guard and the perfect facilitator for this Clippers' offense spearheaded by George and Kawhi. The Mavericks will have to consistently cover off production from all three players, which could be a defensive headache that further leads to success for role-players such as Norman Powell. Their lineups without their centers are also built to handle switch-heavy offenses such as the one the Mavericks have.

Experience and continuity are a massive advantage in the playoffs. The Clippers may have acquired Harden, but the core of the team is full of playoff veterans with multiple pieces from their previous Mavericks' series still on the roster. The Mavericks have Luka and Kyrie, but the larger core around them has minimal playoff experience. This could be the difference-maker in cold stretches for either team, as we saw in the previous series between these teams. The core of the '22 Mavs that made the WCF is gone, and the Clippers' continuity can benefit them.  

Dallas Mavericks Advantages

The biggest advantage for the Mavericks is that they can claim to have the best player on the court. Doncic has proven over this season that the only person who could impact a series more than him is reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic. Doncic has an excellent track record of high production in the Playoffs, with the Kawhi and PG-led Clippers being his first opponent. Given how this matchup is more even than it was in 2020 or 2021, Doncic will be motivated to finally get this monkey off his back.

The athleticism of the Mavericks will be a major worry for the Clippers, as they have plenty of vertical threats along with fast-paced players. The Mavericks have run one of the fastest offenses in the NBA all season, while the Clippers are among the worst transition defenses in the NBA. The Clippers don't have an answer for the rim attacks of Gafford and Lively, especially with three slow-footed centers making up the big-man rotation.

Who Is The Better Team In The First Round?

At their best, the Clippers are bonafide championship contenders. They dominated the NBA for nearly half the season from mid-November to early February, earning the best record in that span (31-8) while also leading the NBA in offensive rating (122.3 points per 100 possessions). But that's not the version of the Clippers that ended the season with injuries and chemistry issues, leading to a .500 finish for the last 30 games. 

The Mavericks are the opposite, hovering around .500 for the first half of the season but going 22-9 since the trade deadline. Even that record is misleading as the Mavericks had a stretch of five straight losses where Jason Kidd was trying to find his core rotation. Once he settled on that, the team went 15-4, three losses coming without Luka and two losses without a majority of their starters.

Momentum is with Dallas, especially with the uncertainty around Kawhi's health. But even with a fully healthy Kawhi, this series might be the one that spells the beginning of the end for the Clippers' experiment with Kawhi and George. 

Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks 3-4