NBA best bets: Action Network’s 5 top picks for Wednesday 4/10

Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers

Wednesday, April 10, 7 p.m. ET, Bally Sports
Grizzlies +18.5 (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

What have the Cavs done lately to warrant an 18.5-point spread in their favor?

Sure, this is a bounce back spot, given they've lost three in a row heading into tonight. But are they going to beat Memphis that badly?

The Grizzlies are very injury compromised and have nothing to play for (but player development and gettin' these checks), but the Cavs haven't beaten anyone this badly at home since the Charlotte Hornets eight games ago on March 25.

The Grizzlies, who recently beat the Bucks on April 3 in Milwaukee, should lose this game, but I at least think they'll cover.

The Cavs are just 13-15-1 against the spread at home this season (lower half in the league) and Memphis is 20-15 ATS as a road underdog, tied for seventh in the NBA.

Pick: Grizzlies +18.5

Evan Mobley Over 27.5 PRA (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Cavaliers take on the Grizzlies in a critically important game for them in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They currently sit in fifth but have significant upside and downside depending on how they finish out the season.

One player who's been very solid for the Cavs since the All-Star break is Evan Mobley. In 17 post-All-Star-break games, he's averaging 16.1 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists.

Tonight, he gets a matchup against a Grizzlies team that's just about packed it in for the season, with Taylor Jenkins indicating that there's a “good chance” Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. won’t suit up again.

Mobley’s points + rebounds + assists line is set at 27.5, a number he's exceeded in 64% of games this season. Given the spread (-18.5), it’s important to consider how he’s played in blowouts.

In wins, he averages 28.7 points + rebounds (63%), but in wins of 15+, he's averaging 33.4 points + rebounds with a 100% hit rate (7/7) this season.

His ability to get things rolling is a major factor in the Cavs’ success.

This is a very soft matchup against the Grizzlies, and I expect Mobley to exceed his 27.5 PRA line.

Pick: Evan Mobley Over 27.5 PRA

Mavericks vs. Heat

Wednesday, April 10, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Bam Adebayo to Make Over 0.5 3s (+145, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Bam Adebayo is 14-for-37 on 3s this season (37.8%) — all career-highs.

Since making a 3 against the Nuggets on March 13, Adebayo is 13-for-23 from downtown (56.5%) while averaging 0.9 makes and 1.6 attempts a night in a 14-game sample.

The books are smartening up to this trend and not placing Adebayo in the +300s or +200s anymore, but still, I like taking a shot at this at +130 or better, especially given that Daniel Gafford will likely live with an Adebayo attempt.

And since these 3s generally aren't contested, I'll take my chances of going over, even knowing that the attempts will likely top out at one or two — if any at all.

Pick: Bam Adebayo to Make Over 0.5 3s (+145)

Suns vs. Clippers

Wednesday, April 10, 10:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Suns -4 (BetRivers)

By Chris Baker

The Suns were down 33 at half to this Clippers team last night, but I’m choosing to view that as an aberration. They ultimately ended up losing by 11 points, but the big reason I’m on the Suns here is the reality that the Clippers basically have the four-seed in the bag.

They're two games up on the Mavs and they need a win or a Mavs loss to clinch. Meanwhile, the Clips still have two games against the Jazz and Rockets on their schedule.

The Clippers have clearly transitioned into “let’s stay fresh and healthy” for the playoffs, as they rested James Harden last night and have been sitting Kawhi Leonard over the past few weeks.

Additionally, the Suns should be getting back Jusuf Nurkic here, and Nurkic has quietly been their most impactful player in terms of on/off numbers. They have a +9.0 net-rating with him on the court and are -2.7 with him off the floor on the season.

That’s a massive -11.7 swing in net-rating, and his return will be absolutely massive here.

Back the Suns to get revenge after an aberration last night.

Pick: Suns -4

Under 226.5 (BetMGM)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

We just saw this game play out last night. The Suns scored 33 points in the first half — including just 10 in the first quarter — with the two teams combining for 197 points for the full game.

That won't happen again tonight, but there's some logic behind the low-scoring matchup on Tuesday.

The Clippers' defense is playing a lot better lately, posting a 104.2 Defensive Rating over the past five games (fourth).

The Suns' offense is also struggling to find solid ground, ranking just 22nd in that same span behind the Magic (eighth), Rockets, (13th), Wizards (14th) and Hornets (17th) to name some glaring examples.

Both teams are vying for playoff seeding, so this should be a slow, grind-it-out game in the half-court.

I see plenty of leeway here, and I'd take the under down to 222.

Pick: Under 226.5