NBA best bets: Six games, 10 expert picks for Monday, March 4

Thunder vs. Lakers

Monday, March 4, 10:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Lakers -1 (DraftKings)

By Michael Fiddle

This game presents a weak number but a strong schedule spot and is still worth attacking. The Lakers are at home with rest while the Thunder are on the second leg of a road back to back after playing the Suns in a game that got close and contested in the second half. The Lakers also have a matchup advantage with size that has shown to give this Thunder team some fits.

The weak number corresponds to the -1. 1 is the 11th most common outcome in the NBA, 2 is the 8th most common, so taking spreads in this range and obtaining some movement doesnt hold a lot of value because its infrequent. However, its still worth a 1u, or even slightly less, play on the L.A. Lakers.

Pick: Lakers -1

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Thunder vs. Lakers

LeBron James over 31.5 PA (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Lakers take on the Oklahoma City Thunder who had to make a late game comeback against the Phoenix Suns last night. Although they are young team, the back-to-back should negatively impact their defense.

One player I’m targeting is LeBron James. James just passed the 40,000 point threshold in his last game against the Nuggets and now gets an opportunity to continue adding to that total. This season, LeBron has averaged 25.2 ppg and 7.9 assists per game. The scoring numbers jump against OKC over the last two years. In those 5 games he has averaged 31.4 points and 5.6 assists per game.

While the assists are down against OKC, I think looking at his recent form this is a bit of an overreaction to his H2H history. He has exceeded 31.5 Points + Assists in 9 straight games and in 23 of his last 30 games when playing alongside Anthony Davis while averaging 34.3 PA per game.

This should be a fast Paced game with both the Thunder (8th) and the Lakers (6th) having top 10 Pace marks in the league.

I expect LeBron James to exceed 31.5 PR tonight.

Pick: LeBron James over 31.5 PA

Bulls vs. Kings

Monday, March 4, 10 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Ayo Dosunmu over 22.5 PRA (-105, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Ayo Dosunmu has been one of betting's unsung heroes since the Bulls became shorthanded at guard with Zach LaVine done for the season.

Dosunmu is averaging about 16-4-3 since LaVine got injured 17 games ago, but more narrowly, he's at 17-5-4 over his last eight, going over 22.5 PRA in six of those appearances.

We know what the Kings defense is, and it's not good at all. Dosunmu only shot four threes per game in his first nine since the last LaVine injury, bumping the attempts up to 6.8 (!!) per game over his last nine. And in that time, his percentage actually went up, hitting about 45 percent from three on lower volume compared to over 46 percent with it increased.

Dosunmu is posting about 27 PRA over his last eight, so if he continues to shoot well, board decently and distribute effectively, he should cash.

Pick: Ayo Dosunmu over 22.5 PRA (-105)

Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves

Monday, March 4, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Anthony Edwards over 0.5 blocks (+130, DraftKings)

By Michael Arinze

A big part of Minnesota’s success this season has been its commitment on the defensive end of the floor. According to TeamRankings, the Timberwolves’ 104.9 defensive rating is more than three points better than any team in the league.

It certainly helps when you have a superstar like Anthony Edwards, who is also fully bought in. Per StatMuse.com, Edwards has the sixth-best defensive rating, with a 108.9 value.

On Monday night, the Timberwolves will face a Portland team they’re 3-0 against this season with an average scoring margin of 24 points. Minnesota held Portland under 100 points in two of the three games.

As a result, I expect another solid defensive performance from the Timberwolves.

What’s interesting is that opposing teams are blocking Portland’s shots at the second-highest rate (6.4 per game) this season.

In the three meetings this season, the Timberwolves averaged 6.3 blocks against the Trail Blazers, with Edwards recording one per game.

When you put it all together, Edwards’ 40-plus-inch vertical and ability to help defensively on the weak side make the Trail Blazers a prime matchup for him to go over his 0.5 blocks (+130) prop at DraftKings.

Pick: Anthony Edwards over 0.5 blocks (+130)

Grizzlies vs. Nets

Monday, March 4, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Nets Moneyline -355 (FanDuel)

By Michael Fiddle

I am fading the Memphis Grizzlies here more than I am backing Brooklyn Nets. The Grizzlies are confirmed to be without Morant, Bane, Smart; they have Jaren Jackson Jr listed as doubtful, and they lost big man depth trading Xavier Tillman recently. The Grizzlies are rolling out a team with some deep cut players and are overly reliant on Luke Kennard and Zaire Williams.

The Nets have home court and all the usuals playing besides Cam Thomas. I do not want to play a -8.5 or -9 spread, so ML for 1u and taking home 0.28u return. Just because we have a pricey moneyline does not mean we need to have large exposure or put it in a parlay!

Pick: Nets Moneyline -355

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Wizards vs. Jazz

Monday, March 4, 9 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Deni Avdija over 24.5 PRA (-125, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Since returning from a brief absence, Deni Avdija has gone over in both appearances despite zero abnormal scoring efforts.

You go back further, and there's a 43-point game from last month. Even so, Avdija has gone over 24.5 PRA in eight of 10, a stretch that is seeing him average about 20-9-3. Of course, that's inflated by a 43-point effort, however, he's had four efforts of 20 or more points and four with double-digit boards.

In a game against the Jazz, who will be without Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Otto Porter, it sets the stage for a quality outing for Avdija once again.

Pick: Deni Avdija over 24.5 PRA (-125)

Wizards vs. Jazz

Taylor Hendricks over 6.5 Rebounds and Double Double (ESPN BET)

By Joe Dellera

The Utah Jazz will be without Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Otto Porter Jr for this game on Monday night against the Wizards. One player that I expect to see a significant bump is rookie, Taylor Hendricks.

Hendricks has played 25+ minutes in five consecutive games with 7+ rebounds in 4/5. Over these last 5 games he is second on the team in Rebound Chances with 11.8 per game and that was 3 games with Kessler and 5 with Lauri. On the season, when he has played 25+ minutes he’s recorded 7+ in 5/7.

Couple his recent form with the Washington Wizards who allow the most rebounds per game to their opponents and Hendricks should have plenty of chances to secure rebounds tonight.

I like Hendricks to exceed 6.5 Rebounds and I’ll play some double double (+525 Bet365) in anticipation of an expanded role.

Pick: Taylor Hendricks over 6.5 Rebounds and Double Double

Clippers vs. Bucks

Monday, March 4, 8 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Bucks -5 (DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

This play is very much dependent on the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is dealing with Achilles soreness — a new injury from the knee tendinitis that’s made him a regular on the injury report the past few games leading away from the All-Star Break. If he goes, I like the Bucks to take care of business against the Clippers who are on a back-to-back playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.

We could see Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George rest tonight in a non-Conference game without real playoff implications beyond record after Leonard went for 38 minutes in a close win against the Wolves and George and Harden each playing 34. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been on fire lately going 5-0 since the break, boasting the second best offense and the third best defense in that time. They’re second in Spread Differential, while the Clippers are 27th.

With Giannis in, I like the Bucks down to -6 in a spot where I could easily see the Clippers punting and giving up an easy loss.

Pick: Bucks -5

Clippers vs. Bucks

James Harden Over 10 Rebounds (+1000, DraftKings)

By Michael Fiddle

The Clippers are coming into this game on the second leg of a road back to back after playing a low scoring physical battle against the Minnesota Timberwolves. I first question whether the Clippers stars will play. Despite playing most back to backs this season- players start to reduce those nearing the playoffs.

Does Kawhi and/or Paul George sit this one out? Also in the matchup against Milwaukee, Brook Lopez is often playing on the perimeter because he is a great shooter. This drags out the Clippers center and will increase Hardens rebounding opportunities. Despite James Harden not rebounding as much this season, this is a prime moment for vintage 10 rebound or triple double James Harden to return to high usage and the focal point of the offense for one game.

Pick: James Harden Over 10 Rebounds (+1000)

Grizzlies vs. Nets

Monday, March 4, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Grizzlies team total under 99.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

This might seem like a buying high spot (despite the low number), but this Grizzlies team has completely given up on their season. Jaren Jackson Jr., one of their few remaining offensive players, is doubtful tonight and we could see him shut down for the season any day now.

Even with him playing, the Grizzlies have had the worst offense in the league during just about any stretch you want to filter through: last five games, last 10 games, full season. It’s been ugly all year.

And even still, the books haven’t caught up to this awful Memphis team’s inability to score. They are the most profitable team to the team total under at 38-23 to the under on the season.

On top of all that, the Grizzlies find themselves on their fourth game in six days. What little offense they have, could be even worse in such a terrible rest spot and I don’t see them looking to push the pace either. Both the Grizzlies and the Nets are bottom-10 in Pace and the Nets are 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games.

I have the Grizzlies projected at 97 points in this game and that’s with Jackson Jr. factored in.

Pick: Grizzlies team total under 99.5