NBA Best Bets: Top 4 Picks for Thursday, Feb. 15

Bucks vs. Grizzlies

Thursday, Feb. 15, 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Vince Williams Jr. Over 1.5 Made 3s (+100) & Over 12.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I've played Vince Williams Jr. Over 1.5 Made 3s (+100) and Over 12.5 Points (-110) tonight against the Bucks on the Action App (follow me there @BryanFonseca, even though my eight-day hot streak was destroyed last night).

Williams’s made 3s being at plus-odds is fair because he doesn't feel like a shooter, but he's actually made multiple 3s in 14 of his last 19 efforts, which include his last two games, where he didn't do it either time.

In this stretch when Williams has been most relevant from a betting (and fantasy!) standpoint, he's been launching 5.2 3s per contest and hitting 40 percent of them.

We like that, and we also like that he's playing the Milwaukee Bucks, who allowed Nikola Jovic (not a typo) to score 24 points on Tuesday as he made five of eight 3s. The Bucks’ perimeter defense still sucks, and Williams Jr. will have open looks, hopefully at least 5-6 attempts, which has largely been his baseline as of late.

As for the points, Williams Jr. has gone over 12.5 points in eight of the last 10 games where he has hit multiple 3s.

In general, he's gone over 12.5 points in 11 of his last 15 contests, with near misses at 12 in each in his last two. In his last 15 contests, he's averaging 16.1 points per game.

My All-Star Break betting momentum rides on the left hand of Vince Williams Jr… this is the life I chose.

Pick: Vince Williams Jr. Over 1.5 Made 3s (+100) & Over 12.5 Points (-110)

Warriors vs. Jazz

Thursday, Feb. 15, 9 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Warriors -2 (Caesars)

By Jim Turvey

The Warriors head to Salt Lake City for the final game before the All-Star Break in a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions.

The Warriors have won seven of 10 since Draymond Green returned to the starting lineup, and over the last two weeks, they have the best Spread Differential in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass, covering by an average of 10.1 points per game as they are 6-2 ATS over that span.

The Jazz, on the other hand, seem to have embraced the future, which is really just a nice way of saying they are fine with slipping down the standings a bit over the final few months of the NBA season — just like last year.

They are now starting rookie Keyonte George over veteran Kris Dunn, who was holding the defense together. This move signifies the Jazz are fine losing some games right now for the purpose of growth in the long term.

It has resulted in a pair of blowout losses to teams right around them in the standings, but the trend goes beyond just the last two games. The Jazz have the fourth-worst Spread Differential over the past two weeks and are 2-6 ATS overall in the past eight games.

By a straight Adjusted Net Rating, this game should be right at Warriors -2, maybe even -1.5 or -1 if you weigh Utah home court a bit more, but with the way both teams are trending, I'm fine playing this to Warriors -4.5.

Pick: Warriors -2

Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers

Thursday, Feb. 15, 10 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Under 216.5 (DraftKings)

By Michael Fiddle

There are two strategy components to explain to play this under.

First, this game is another example of the recent uptick in the NBA schedule mimicking the MLB baseball series format, where teams play one another consecutively.

Despite this being a Wolves road game, there is no rest disadvantage and no travel component since these teams just played in Portland on Tuesday. In these scenarios, we generally see less scoring in the second matchup because the defense is more apt to pick up on tendencies and force ball-handlers away from their preferred spots.

Coaches are also more focused on attacking mismatches and rotational adjustments. The Pace slows down in these matchups, and the efficiency dips as a bevy of under factors are at hand.

Second, In these baseball-like series, it is more important to forego focusing on the results of the previous game but rather how the last matchup was priced at open, where the movement was and where the line closed.

The Tuesday matchup between these teams opened at 214.5, dropped to 212.5 and ultimately closed at 213.5. The game went over, partly because Anthony Edwards was hitting some ridiculous 3-pointers, and consequently, the next total opened at 216.5.

That’s an overreaction and should trend back down. Grab it for a full unit if you see a 216 or 216.5. Play less on 215.5, and just skip anything lower than 215.

Pick: Under 216.5

Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers

Thursday, Feb. 15, 10 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Mike Conley Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

It’s the last day before the All-Star break, and teams are getting prepared for a few days of rest and recovery.

Ordinarily, this is a spot to fade some teams; however, Mike Conley Jr. is a player I expect to keep the top team in the West focused tonight.

Conley provides significant veteran leadership in what normally could be a bit of a letdown game.

He has been excellent this season by averaging 10.6 points, 6.5 assists and 2.9 rebounds on the season. I’m targeting his Rebounds + Assists prop, which is set at 8.5, because this is a number he has cleared in 55% of games but 65% of victories.

The Timberwolves should take care of business against a Trail Blazers team they have defeated twice this season by 23 points and 12 points with Conley recording 14 and 10 Rebounds + Assists.

Pick: Mike Conley Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists