NBA bets: Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4 prediction, odds, expert pick for Mon. 5/13

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds

Monday, May 13, 9:30 pm ET, TNT

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder were one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA during the regular season, but have gone down in this series in large part because they're losing the 3-point battle. The Thunder have to win from behind the arc in Game 4, which I think they will because they play a smaller lineup and have better shooters.

Josh Giddey was still a starter in Game 3 but is playing less minutes. I think that continues with both Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe seeing increased playing time. That provides the Thunder better spacing and shooting.

If the team collectively steps up to rebound, this spot is a clear OKC or nothing for me in Game 4.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have gotten a phenomenal game script the last two games.

Their role players are knocking down 3s with both efficiency and volume. Luka Dončić is improving in his health and output. Kyrie Irving is doing an exceptional job on defense; he had multiple strips of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Irving is also stepping up to create his own offense when needed while not forcing himself to be a focal point.

Jason Kidd is also playing offense-defense with Derrick Lively II and Josh Green, which worked to counter Mark Daigneault's attempt to play Hack-a-Shaq with Lively.

With all this being said, its been two close games when the veteran-laden team finished the close game. I think the Mavericks have the leg up in close games, but the Thunder have a much greater ability to run them out. If I was a Dallas backer, I would wait until late to live bet it instead of pregame.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Betting Pick & Prediction

There is a crazy amount of sharp action on the Thunder, and the books are trying to invite money on the Mavericks side. That is a loud indicator from the books that this is Thunder or nothing.

Despite Game 3 opening at 3.5, closing at 2, and Dallas winning and covering, the Thunder re-opened at 2.5 and immediately started taking action again. I jumped on the OKC train, and the best way to still play this is to sell points on the alt spread.

Most playoff games end in a 10+ disparity, so selling the Thunder to win by five and taking 2:1 odds is a great bet. Since +2 does not offer much insurance to cover but not win outright, I split my exposure three ways: 0.4u spread, 0.3u ML and 0.3u alt spread.

Pick: Thunder +2 | Thunder ML (+112) | Thunder -5 Alt Spread (+205)