NBA First Round Preview

The second season in the Association is finally here as the NBA Playoffs kick off with eight games over the next two days. As usual, there are no shortage of intriguing storylines to keep us interested over the next two months. Among them, the most captvating has to be the injury to Kevin Garnett and how that affects the defending champions. The Boston Celtics managed to edge out the Magic and grab the second seed without their defensive leader, but no one is giving them any sort of shot against Cleveland, the NBA's best team. One thing is for sure whether or not the Celtics have Garnett: they will go down guns blazing. Here is a breakdown with my prediction for each first round series.

Eastern Conference

(1) Cleveland (66-16) vs. (8) Detroit (39-43)
LeBron James has been nothing short of spectacular during his five-year career in the NBA, but this season we have all been witnesses as the King has taken another step in his amazing progression. Cleveland went from the fourth seed in the East last year to the best team in the entire league. Part of that has definitely been a result of the savvy signing of Mo Williams, who has emerged as a legit #2 behind James. But, even he has followed LeBron's lead as he has created a bunch that thoroughly enjoys playing with each other, and has thoroughly enjoyed dominating opponents, especially at home where the Cavs were 39-2. They enter the playoffs as the heavy favorite to get to the Finals in the East

When describing the Detroit Pistons of 2008-09, the exact opposite of Cleveland's season would be an appropriate description. Head coach Michael Curry is over his head with this position, and could be on the chopping block as soon as this season ends. The loss of Chauncey Billups has allowed numerous youngsters to emerge, but remains a trade that Denver wins. For a team that has made six straght Conference Finals, losing more games than they won must seem like a culture shock. The only good thing going for this group is that they have a future where they will plenty of space in the cap to sign someone who will become their franchise player. As for the present, however, there isn't much hope that Detroit wll be able to salvage a successful season. In this series, they will be lucky to win more than one game.
The Lounge Says: Cavs in 4
(2) Boston (62-20) vs. (7) Chicago (41-41)
Even though the loss of KG isn't expected to really hurt the Celtics until later on in the postseason, it will be very interesting to track Boston's body language right off the bat in this series. Facing a young team with nothing to lose, Boston needs to have their intensity at its highest from the beginning. Given the nature and history of this team, that shouldn't be a problem. Many of their key contributors have grown accustomed to the increased expectations, but for guys like Mikki Moore and Glen "Big Baby" Davis, judgement day has arrived. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Rajon Rondo know all about this grind, but Moore and Davis are experiecing this gauntlet for the first time, and how they react from the beginning will determine Boston's ceiling. The Celtics went a very solid 17-5 wth Garnett on the shelf, proving they can suceed without their defensive stopper. WIth no one giving them a chance at a repeat, the Celtics can play in April and May pressure free, with hope that they can make it to June.

For most of the season, Chicago was on the outside looking in for the playoff race. However, a hot 11-4 finish to the season allowed the Bulls to get in, and put themselves in position to get the sixth seed if not for a terrible loss to the Raptors at home on the final day of the season. It's been a tremendous rookie season for Derrick Rose, who has lived up to the hype and already guided this team to the postseason in his first season at the helm. Undoubtedly, the midseason trade to acquire Brad Miller and John Salmons helped out quite a bit. The Bulls really started to peak at about the time they made that trade in Sacramento, and are playing with house money at this point. In their only meeting when KG was out, Chicago beat Boston at home 127-121 in overtime, so they enter this series knowing they can compete. The Bulls will be able to keep this series extremely competitive, but are still a couple years away from being in Boston, Orlando, or Cleveland's league.
The Louge Says: Celtics in 6

(3) Orlando (59-23) vs. (6) Philadelphia (41-41)
By all accounts, the Magic had a wonderful season; they emerged as a legitimate contender to the Cavs and Celtics, fighting with them toe-to-toe for much of the season. They did that by surrrounding Dwight Howard with an array of shooters, who lit it up during the season. Their depth of consistent jump-shooters gives them plenty of options in case someone starts slumping. Yet they enter the playoffs on their worst stretch of the season having lost four of their last six, and with their two best perimeter threats, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, nursing injuries. The loss of Jameer Nelson has been dampened a bit through the acquisition of Rafer Alston, but they still sorely miss him. Orlando managed to right the ship to a certain extent with a 25-point win over the Bobcats in the season finale. Luckily for them, they are meeting a team that was equally as shaky down the stretch.

Philadelphia managed to sneak into the sixth spot thanks to an overtime win over the JV Cavaliers team on the last day of the season. Before that, the Sixers had lost six straght to blow any chance they had of catching the Heat in the fifth position. All things considered though, Philly did well to grab this spot without having Elton Brand for most of the season. This team relies heavily on slashers like Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, and Andre Miller to handle the bulk of their offensive load. They key -- obviously -- will be if they can contain Howard inside. That responsibility will be handled by Samuel Dalembert and Mauresse Speights. Neither one jumps off the page offensively or defensively, which explains the team's makeup in general. With a .500 record, and significant holes, the only thing to expect from this group is mediocrity.
The Lounge Says: Magic in 6

(4) Atlanta (47-35) vs. (5) Miami (43-39)
After a spirited effort in the first round against Boston last season, the Hawks managed to string together a solid 82-game season to earn their way into home court advantage in the first round. You could call Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando the elite tier, but Atlanta is at the top of the notch below those three. Getting to where those teams are will require sustained success in the postseason, which s possible thanks to the body of work that's been accomplished in the regular year. At Phillips Arena, Atlana compiled an impresive 31-10 record, which could be the difference in this series. The Hawks have made it this far because of balance, boasting six guys that average double figures in points. They have muscle in the middle with Al Horford averaging nearly a double-double, perimeter threats with Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson each hitting about two 3-pointers every night, and one of the game's most exciting high flyers in Josh Smith.

Anythng regarding the Heat begins and ends with Dwyane Wade. The man was simply brilliant this year, averging 30 points and seven assists while single-handedly shouldering the load of improving the Heat by 28 wins from a year ago. Any other season, his accomplishments would have warranted an easy MVP selection. He will probably finish second to LeBron this season, but can atone for that if he can perform in the playoffs like he did in the regular season. Miami's chances hinge on whether Wade can receive some quality support from his teammates. Rookie Michael Beasley has put together his best stretch of the season over the last two weeks, providing some hope that someone else is capable of carrying the load. Udonis Haslem is a tried and tested playoff veteran who's been through the battles with Wade before. Jermaine O'Neal is getting paid a lot of money, and isn't producing like he's worth it, but this is where he can start over and show that the $20+ million he's getting is worth it. Ulimately, Miami will only be able to advance if Wade has a superhuman series.
The Lounge Says: Heat in 7
Western Conference

(1) Los Angeles (65-17) vs. (8) Utah (48-34)
Like Cleveland, the question concerning the Lakers is whether the field is good enough to derail them and stop the inevitable LeBron-Kobe showdown in the Finals. LA has two major upgrades over last year's unit that won the West. First, the installation of Trevor Ariza into the startng lineup gives the Lakers a legitimate defensive stopper at the 3, a spot where they burned into the ground by the Celtics when they had Vladimir Radmonovich. Secondly, having Andrew Bynum at center restores the balance for this team. Bynum has looked pretty damn good since his return from injury, which should instll even more fear into the rest of the Western Conference, which aside from Portland, has looked exceedingly average lately. The only headache surrounding this team is Lamar Odom's diminished role. He's handled it well to this point, but come playoff time, it could be a different story. I've gone this long without mentioning the team's two best players, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, which tells you all you need to know about how stacked this team is. Bryant is the best closer in the game, and Gasol has become a bona fide star in this league.

With the exception of Deron Williams, the rest of the Jazz have been a really disappointing group to follow. They've battled injuries for most of the year, but have had plenty of time to overcome it. It's no longer an excuse. Following a 10-game win streak that spanned February and March, Utah finally looked completely healthy and was headed toward a deep run in the playoffs. Since then, the wheels have slowly fallen apart, as Utah has gone 2-6 in its last eight. The main bug-a-boo for the Jazz has been their atrocious play on the road where they won only two road games against playoff teams all year. That doesn't bode well as they prepare to face the Lakers. The pressure Utah has to face while trying to hold serve at home will be much too overwhelming to handle. With Carlos Boozer opting out of his contract, and Paul Millsap craving a big pay day for his breakout year, things will be more interestng Utah in the offseason than in the postseason.
The Louge Says: Lakers in 5

(2) Denver (54-28) vs. (7) New Orleans (49-33)
When listing the teams in the West that have the best chance of upsetting the Lakers, everyone seems to have the Nuggets at the top of the list. That's mostly because of Chauncey Billups who has provided much-need leadership to a team that has been notoriously unorganized. The implementation of Bllups has allowed Carmelo Anthony to retain his scorer mentality, and be Denver's number one option, something that wasn't always clear when AI was around. Billups has also really helped the team on the defensive end, a place where the Nuggets have always struggled. Outside of Billups, the improvement of Nene and the great defensive skills of Chris Andersen have helped immensely. Denver hasn't advanced to the second round since their epic 1995 team so getting there has to be considered a success even though this team has bigger dreams.

After a breakout season a year ago, the Hornets suffered through an up-and-down campaign and fell down the standings because of it. They were never able to string together a long stretch where they were playing their best ball and they slid all the way down to seventh because of it. Chris Paul and David West could never get any consistent help from a third player. Tyson Chandler regressed miserably from a great season a year ago, and is probably the biggest reason New Orleans is in the tough position they are in. The synergy he had with Paul last season made them a dynamic duo. This year, they just haven't been in sync. Coach Byron Scott has complained throughout this season because of a lack of effort. If he can't get a 110% effort at this point in the season, something is terribly wrong. There's a good chance this season is goinig to end in disappointment for the Hornets, who had such a great outlook coming into this season.
The Lounge Says: Nuggets in 6

(3) San Antonio (54-28) vs. (6) Dallas (50-32)
The Spurs have been great in odd-numbered years, winning their championships in 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007, but it's looking more and more probable that the streak is going to end there. Manu Ginobli will not be available for any part of the playoffs, putting even more pressure on Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. There is no doubt they can handle it as they have been through the rigors of the playoffs many times. Things start to get complicated after those two. Roger Mason slips into the role of the third option; he got off to a tremendous start this season, but has gradually tailed off down the stretch. The Spurs will need him to be at his absolute best if they hope to make a long run. Popovich elected to rest Duncan throughout the regular season with the hope that he would remain fresh for another run. It remains to be seen if that strategy will work or not. Despite all these reasons to feel skeptical, San Antonio won over 50 games and will add another Southwest Division title to the rafters.

In each of the last two years, the Mavericks have lost in the first round, slowly falling from their perch as Western Conference champions. They still managed to win 50 games for the ninth straight year, and enter this series with seven wins in their last nine. That hot stretch allowed them to fend off Phoenix and pass New Orleans and Utah to move up to sixth. Dirk Nowitzki was named the Western Conference Player of the Month, and with Josh Howard healthy, things are starting to fall into place for Dallas. They've got one of the greatest point guards ever in Jason Kidd as well as the best sixth man in the game wth Jason Terry, capable of going for 30 on every given night from the bench. There's a lot of reason to feel optimistic about the Mavericks advancing, especially because they know the Spurs so well. They managed to split the season series, meaning things could be equally as tight this time around.
The Lounge Says: Mavericks in 7
(4) Portland (54-28) vs. (5) Houston (53-29)
It's safe to say that the Blazers have exceeded all expectations by earning home court in the first round. They began the year just hoping to sneak into the playoffs and improve on last year's 41 wins. Earning a top-4 seed in the loaded Western Conference didn't seem like a realistic opportunity for another couple years. The fact that they were able to do this while enduring Greg Oden's struggles is huge. Portland remains an extremely young team, but one that is as dangerous as anyone in the West. Portland won their last six games of the year, and had 18 wins after trailing by double digits, demostrating they are wise well beyond their years. Brandon Roy is a star in this league, and LaMarcus Aldridge has become a solid number two option in the paint. Mix in a bunch of guys that are still improving, and this is only the beginning for the Blazers.

Even without T-Mac, the stigma surrouding this group remains the same: find a way to get out the first round. Houston managed to play pretty well in McGrady's absence, but this is where the legacy of Yao Ming and Ron Artest will be made. On paper, this was the second best team in the West in the preseason. Taking McGrady out of the equation dramatically alters that outlook, but this group will still be severely criticized if they fail to make it out of the first round again. With Ming and Artest, there is still enough talent for this team to progress, but they were granted any favors by having to face the Blazers. Houston blew a double digit lead to Dallas to put themselves out of the running in the Southwest, which makes them have to begin their playoff journey on the road. Facing arguably the hottest team in the West, the Rockets will fall short of the conference semfinals again.
The Lounge Says: Blazers in 6