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Questions from reviewing the Vegas 2016-17 NBA win totals
Can the Golden State Warriors come close to matching their record win total in 2017? Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

Questions from reviewing the Vegas 2016-17 NBA win totals

Las Vegas released the NBA over/under win totals for the 2016-17 season this week, an annual tradition that serves as the official Bat-Signal for the start of another basketball season. You can find the win totals here. You can also view them sorted in order by conference:

Training camps open next week. Preseason games will follow. Opening night is only a little over a month away. With the full understanding that these win totals are meant to encourage equal amounts of betting on both sides, here are some questions to consider:

Are the Warriors going to approach 73 wins again this season? 

Forget about the Warriors blowing a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals for a second, and remember how dominant they were during the regular season, on their way to a 73-9 record when they outscored opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions. Now consider the addition of Kevin Durant, who might be the best player on a team with the unanimous MVP from last season. Another 70-win season does not seem farfetched. So, the 66.5 win total is fair, and there are many reasons to think Golden State will come close to replicating their 73-win season.

But will the Warriors have incentive to win as many games as they can during the season? There are plenty of reasons to answer no. After losing Stephen Curry in the first round with an injury that plagued him even after he returned, the Warriors might opt to rest their players instead of chasing a win total towards the end of the regular season. That will especially be the case if the Warriors do dominate the West and have the number one overall seed locked up by mid-March. The Warriors might run over the rest of the league and avenge their Finals loss this season with ease, and even so, they still might not win 67 games while doing so.

Where do Russell Westbrook and the Thunder end up in the playoff race? 

The Thunder are no longer championship contenders with Durant’s departure, but remain just as intriguing now that Russell Westbrook has committed to Oklahoma City for this season and the next and will be the undisputed alpha dog of the Thunder this season. What will a Westbrook-led Thunder team look like? We got a glimpse of that two years ago when Durant appeared in just 27 games due to injury and Westbrook went on a tear, averaging 28.1 points, 8.6 assists and 7.3 rebounds. Westbrook was appointment viewing every night during the 2014-15 season, but Thunder fans will also remember their team ended up with just 45 wins and missed the playoffs. Their win total for this season just happens to be 45.5 for this season.

So, was the 2014 season a blueprint for this year? Or do you believe the Thunder have an improved roster from two years ago? It depends on how you think Steven Adams and Enes Kanter will fare in much more prominent roles than last season, and if Victor Oladipo will be the perfect sidekick for Westbrook in the backcourt.

Who wins the Atlantic Division? 

Based on the win totals, Vegas has Boston as the best team in the division, and the second-best team in the East behind Cleveland. Their 51.5 win total is a slight improvement from the team’s 48-34 record last season. The Celtics bring back most of their roster and have Al Horford as their prized off-season addition, expecting them to trend upwards makes sense.

The Raptors, who won 56 games last season, have their total set at 49.5. Toronto lost playoff hero Bismack Biyombo in free agency, but Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan still form their All-Star backcourt and Jonas Valanciunas appears finally on the verge of a breakout season, after a stellar albeit injury-prone playoff run that included seven double-doubles in his first ten playoff games, including a 23-point, 15-rebound performance against the Pacers in the first round and then dropping 24 and 14 in Game 1 against the Heat in round two. The win total projects a pretty staggering drop for a team that’s won the division for three years running.

Are the Knicks going to surprise a few people, or disappoint everyone? 

Vegas has the Knicks out of the playoffs with 38.5 wins, which ties them for 10th in the East with the Chicago Bulls. The Knicks won 32 last year, and aggressively upgraded their roster this summer to win now while Carmelo Anthony is still a premier scorer in the league. The additions of Courtney Lee, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah gives Anthony a strong supporting cast that will improve the Knicks, provided the injury bug doesn’t strike, a big if given the history of their acquisitions.

Add in the potential of Kristaps Porzingis taking another step towards superstardom in his second year, and it’s not inconceivable the Knicks could win 50 games in the best case scenario. Also for some reason everyone is in Vegas is betting on them as 80-1 long shots to win the title. This is why Vegas sportsbooks are a very sustainable business.

Are the ‘Wolves ready to grow up in Tom Thibodeau’s first season? 

As the head coach of the Bulls, Tom Thibodeau worked around injuries to his best player(s) almost annually and got Chicago to the playoffs five years in a row by overachieving and molding the team into a top-tier defensive unit every year. The Timberwolves won 29 games last season and haven't made the playoffs since the 2003-04 season, when they had Kevin Garnett, Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell.

Can Thibodeau mold this roster with Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn into a similar team he had in Chicago? And can he do that in year one? The 41.5 win total has them right on the cusp of a playoff spot in the West, and going over that win total would represent a 12 win improvement, which is a pretty lofty goal in the West. This is one of the tougher calls to make given the potential of this young 'Wolves team.

Is everyone all in on the Utah Jazz as an elite team in the West this season? 

No team has received more buzz during the off-season than the Jazz. In fact, they’re ineligible to be mentioned as a sleeper pick for anyone heading into the season. Vegas seems to agree, and has them at 47.5 wins, the fourth highest win total in the West despite the fact Utah won 40 games last season and have missed the playoffs four years in a row.
Scan the roster, and it’s hard to disagree that the Jazz have all the makings of a team ready to make the leap. The Jazz shored up their point guard position by trading for George Hill, added Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw to their bench, and still have a promising young core led by Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood and Alec Burks. On paper, everything makes sense for this team to make the leap. Also, don't underestimate the addition of Diaw's espresso machine.

When will we know about Chris Bosh’s health status? 

It’s still going to take some time to get used to Dwyane Wade in a Bulls jersey, but in the meantime, the Heat have a decision to make regarding Bosh’s health status. In the first episode of his self-directed documentary this week, Bosh revealed that Heat doctors told him his career was likely over after his blood clot issues returned last season. As training camp starts, it's a storyline hovering over the Heat, who are being cautious with Bosh's recovery, although the two sides continue to disagree as to whether Bosh is cleared and ready to play.

Bosh's long-term health is the priority here. If he is cleared and able to contribute, and the Heat get the same player who averaged 19.1 points and 7.4 rebounds in 53 games last season, even with Wade's departure, the Heat should have enough to clear their 36.5 win total.

Are the Spurs finally in transition? 

From an organizational standpoint, Tim Duncan's retirement represents a huge transition for this team. On the court, the Spurs are not going to fall off the face of the Earth, not with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge as their top two. Slowly though, the Spurs are finally in a transitional phase, with Manu Ginobili returning to play one more year, and Tony Parker turning 35 next May. The 56.5 win total appears high, especially when you consider Gregg Popovich's annual tradition of resting players.

But then you remember this team won 67 games last season and actually had a better net rating during the regular season than the Warriors. And then you remember the remarkable run this franchise has been on for over two decades. Counting non-lockout years only, the Spurs have won over 50 games every season since 1998 (in 2012, when the league played a 66 game season, they went ahead and put up a 50-16 record anyways). Anyone want to bet this is the season the slippage shows in the standings?

Who will be the breakout team in the East? 

At a quick glance, it's not far-fetched to think either Detroit (45.5), Indiana (43.5) or Atlanta (43.5) could separate themselves from the middle of the pack and approach 50 wins this season. The Pistons have assembled a roster that fits Stan Van Gundy's style of play and will go as far as Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond will carry them. The Pacers added Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson this season and saw Paul George played like a Most Valuable Player in their brief postseason run last season. The Hawks lost Horford, added Dwight Howard and are banking on Dennis Schroder to lead them at point guard. Plenty of questions marks but equal amounts of intrigue for each team. Can one of them approach 50 wins?

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