Steph vs. Sabrina 3-point Contest picks: Who should you bet on?

It turns out Curry was game, so the competition will happen Saturday night after the Starry 3-Point Contest and before the night closes with the Dunk Contest. The contest can be found on TNT, with festivities beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

Curry is a two-time winner of the NBA 3-point Contest and, of course, considered the greatest shooter of all time, so he's a heavy favorite at -265, while Ionescu is +200.

Why I'm Taking Sabrina Ionescu to Win (+190)

There's value here, even against the greatest shooter of all time. One of the talking points has been which 3-point line they'll use. Originally, the plan was for Curry to shoot from the NBA 3-point line at 22 feet in the corners and 23 feet, nine inches around the break, while Ionescu would shoot on the shorter WNBA line.

But Ionescu has declined that advantage and will shoot from NBA range, though she will do it with a WNBA-sized basketball. I looked at Ionescu's shooting splits from NBA range last season when she led the league in 3-point makes while shooting 44.8% of her threes.

NBA corners are 22 feet, so I started there, then looked at 24 feet or further from the rest of the court.

• From 22 feet from the corners: 10-of-20, 50%
• From 24 feet or further from all other locations inside half court: 90-of-207, 43.5%

That's right, she's still a 43.5% shooter from 24 feet and further.

Now, the problem is going to be the "Starry Ball," which is used in the 3-point contest as well. Those are deep shots which are worth three points. Curry is the best shooter ever at those. However, guess what? From 28 feet and beyond, Ionescu was 13-of-29 for 45%. That's ridiculous, by the way.

The rest versus rust component is tough to figure out. Curry's in the rhythm of a season but tired from a long and grueling stretch. Ionescu is fresh but hasn't been playing in games. Then again, this isn't a game; it's a shooting competition. Curry's 3-point shot has regressed back to its usual best-ever percentage, coming in at 42.3% vs. his career's 42.7% average. But this is a weekend of fun and entertainment for Curry. Will he lock in for this competition?

For Curry, there's very little to gain and very little to lose. That might benefit him because the stakes for Ionescu in terms of having to unfairly carry the validity of women's basketball and the possible marketing rewards if she were to win does create a higher atmosphere of pressure for her.

I think trying to figure those elements out is too complex, though. What we have is a competition between two great shooters where one side has the advantage of a smaller ball, and the perceived advantage for Curry in distance doesn't express itself in the data.

At 2-1, this is too long of a number. The implied odds give Ionescu just a 1-in-3 chance of toppling Curry. Curry's amazing – the best shooter of all time – but the market is expressing this as a huge gap between the two, which just isn't evident given Ionescu's development as a shooter and the nature of a one-night competition.

I'm on Sabrina to knock off Curry on Saturday night.