Week 11 shapes up to be an important week for several teams looking to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The spotlight in Sunday’s early games will be on Minnesota-Green Bay, as the Packers look to inflict some more pain on their former quarterback and their NFC North rivals, but there are also some pivotal contests in Nashville, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh.
Here’s how I look for Sunday’s early games to shake out. Starting this week, I’ve decided to add a strength rating to each pick to indicate how strongly I feel about each one.
And as always, the below odds are brought to you by our partner SBG Global.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Cincinnati by 6
Total: 44
Buffalo broke an eight-game losing streak last week, recording its first win of the Chan Gailey era as they fended off Detroit.
Can they make it two in a row and extend Cincinnati’s losing streak to seven? A quick look at the rest of the Bengals’ schedule doesn’t show too many games that you can pencil in as potential wins, so a win over Buffalo won’t cure what ails them. But the Bengals desperately need a win, if for no other reason than to help Marvin Lewis get some sleep on Sunday night.
The Bills have been about as competitive as a 1-8 team could be – five of their eight losses have been by eight points or less. On the other hand, the Bengals haven’t been able to find a way to win close games, as all six of the losses in their current skid have been by eight or less. So, the chances are high that we could see a close game in Cincinnati on Sunday, and the chances are also high that Buffalo could come in and pile on the misery.
I do think the Bengals will get it done, but it won’t come easy, and it might not even come in regulation.
PICK: BUFFALO +5 (Strength Rating: 6/10), UNDER 42.5 (Strength Rating: 6/10)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Dallas by 6
Total: 46
Even if it’s all too little, too late for the Cowboys, the coaching change from Wade Phillips to Jason Garrett looks to have paid some early dividends, not least in the win column, as his debut saw the Cowboys knock off the Giants on the road.
Two wins in a row? It looks like the team is buying into the Garrett way, and so am I.
PICK: DALLAS -6 (Strength Rating: 8.5/10), OVER 46.5 (Strength Rating: 8.5/10)
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Redskins, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Tennessee by 7
Total: 44
After being thoroughly embarrassed by the Eagles at home on Monday night, the only way for the Redskins is up, right?
The Titans need a win almost as bad as the Redskins do, after dropping back-to-back road games at San Diego and Miami to drop to 5-4, a game back of the Colts in the AFC South and a game behind Pittsburgh for the second wild card spot.
You’re never really which one of these teams you’re going to see from one week to the next, so if I were you, I’d stay as far away from this game as possible. For what it’s worth though, I like the Titans to take care of business at home by at least a touchdown. And if you’re going to make a play on anything in this one, it should be on the over – Tennessee has allowed 62 points in its last two games, while the Redskins have surrendered 96. Ouch. But like I said, you never know whether you’ll see Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde from these two from week to week, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up being 20-10.
PICK: TENNESSEE -7 (Strength Rating: 4/10), OVER 44 (Strength Rating: 8/10)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Kansas City by 7.5
Total: 43.5
After back-to-back road losses to division rivals Oakland and Denver, Kansas City has to be looking forward to returning home, where they’re a perfect 4-0 this season.
On the other hand, Arizona can’t be looking forward to this one too much, as they’ve lost four in a row, and in that losing skid, they’ve allowed an average of nearly 31 points per game. And tomorrow, their run defense, which is 28th in the league, is facing the league’s best rushing attack.
A steady diet of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones = a comfortable Chiefs win.
PICK: KANSAS CITY -7.5 (Strength Rating: 7.5/10, OVER 43.5 (Strength Rating: 8.5/10)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Green Bay by 3
Total: 44
Coming into the season, it was the Packers who were supposed to be looking up at the Vikings in the NFC North. But the shoe’s on the other foot now, and a loss for Brett Favre and Minnesota will all but spell the end to their already-remote chances of making the postseason.
In the previous meeting in Week 7, Favre threw three costly interceptions but very nearly rallied the Vikings to a win at Lambeau. He’s coming off of another three-pick performance in last week’s surprising home loss to Arizona and now has 16 picks in nine games, and he’s going up against one of the most pick-happy teams in the league in Green Bay, who has 14 (tied for third in the NFL).
Doesn’t bode well, does it? No, but I’m going to go off of a hunch and take the Vikings here, and not just because of the much-needed return of Sidney Rice to Minnesota’s receiving corps.
PICK: MINNESOTA +3 (Strength Rating: 6.5/10), OVER 44 (Strength Rating: 9/10)
New York Jets vs. Houston Texans, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: New York by 7
Total: 46
After consecutive overtime road wins over a couple of pesky opponents in Detroit and Cleveland, the Jets are back in the friendly confines this week against the in-need Texans, who have lost three in a row to drop below .500 and are headed for another season of unfulfilled expectations.
I think they’ll stay within reach of the Jets, but as they have the last two weeks and several times this season, will find a way to win. And though the Jets are more known for their ground game, Rex Ryan should give Mark Sanchez the all-clear to air it out tomorrow against the Texans’ porous pass defense.
PICK: NEW YORK JETS -7 (Strength Rating: 6.5/10), OVER 46 (Strength Rating: 7.5/10)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Oakland Raiders, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Pittsburgh by 7.5
Total: 41
On one side, we have the league’s #2 rush offense. That’s Oakland, who’s averaging 162.2 yards per game on the ground.
On the other side, we have the league’s #1 rush defense. That’s Pittsburgh, who’s giving up almost a hundred yards less than that on the ground per game (63.2).
Who’s going to win this matchup? It’s sure nice to see this game mean something again, but the Steelers are going to show the Raiders that they have a little ways to go yet before they can call themselves serious contenders. You know what they say about defense winning championships and all, right? The Raiders have been solid in that department recently, as they’ve allowed an average of just 13.5 points per game over their last four games, but Pittsburgh will bounce back in a big way after a downright disappointing performance at home against the Patriots.
PICK: PITTSBURGH -7.5 (Strength Rating: 8/10), UNDER 43 (Strength Rating: 5/10)
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Baltimore by 11
Total: 37.5
Will someone please put John Fox out of his misery already? That is all.
PICK: BALTIMORE -11 (Strength Rating: 6.5/10), UNDER 37.5 (Strength Rating: 7/10)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns, 1:00 P.M. ET
Spread: Jacksonville by 1.5
Total: 43.5
Even though the record isn’t pretty, it’s hard not to be impressed with the Browns. Sure, their defensive lapse at the end last Sunday against the Jets made for a sour end to an otherwise solid performance, but after beating the Saints and Patriots and hanging with the Jets for more than 74 minutes, this is a team to be taken seriously.
That being said, I have to roll with the Jaguars to hold serve at home. Jacksonville can ill-afford to lose a winnable home game with what they have left on the road this season (at New York in Week 12, at Tennessee in Week 13, at Indianapolis in Week 15, at Houston in Week 17).
PICK: JACKSONVILLE -1.5 (Strength Rating: 8/10), UNDER 43.5 (Strength Rating: 5/10)
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