We're back! Obviously have not been doing too much blogging recently, but after last year's dominant performance (3-3), demand for this series was so high that I just couldn't say no.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)
The Chiefs, favored by 6 on Sunday, are this week's most popular team, but aren't exactly running away with it. The most appealing thing about Kansas City is their lack of future value (home games against Minnesota and Denver...but they're the Chiefs), but it's tough to get too excited about this option one way or the other.
New England (at Miami)
Not much to like here beyond the spread (NE -7). The Pats are a fairly trendy selection, and obviously have a good bit of future value, with home games against the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills, as well as some away games where they could be a strong option. It's almost never going to be a good idea to take a team on the road against a divisional opponent in Week 1 (if only for the future value aspect), and this is no exception.
Arizona (vs. Carolina)
Looks like the Panthers are going to play a starring role in these posts this season. Arizona is favored by 7 in this one, which is nothing to write home about but becomes interesting after considering their complete lack of future value. Best option thus far.
Cleveland (vs. Cincinnati)
The Browns are a similar option to the one directly above, although not favored by quite as much (-6, and that's an important point). Cleveland also appears to have a bit more future value (home vs. Seattle?), so I think the Browns are a solid option but inferior to Arizona.
San Diego (vs. Minnesota)
San Diego is a bit more likely to win than Arizona (77.7% vs. 74.5%), but I don't think that's worth all the future value you'd give up by using the Chargers here. They have a fairly absurd home schedule, including games against the Chiefs, Dolphins, Raiders, Broncos, and Bills, so plenty of incentive to go with someone else this week.
Philadelphia (at St. Louis)
Eagles are only favored by 4.5, and have plenty of future value. Can't burn the Dream Team in Week 1 anyway.
Houston (vs. Indianapolis)
So this is interesting. For reasons I trust everyone is aware of, the Texans are more likely to win this game than they traditionally would be, and are actually the biggest favorite on the board as of now (barely edging out San Diego). They do have a bit of future value (home vs. Carolina in Week 15), but not nearly as much as the Chargers. A decent number (about 1 in 10) of people are taking Houston in OFP, but that only makes them the sixth most popular team this week.
Given those factors, I think Houston is the pick this week. The only caveat I would add is that, as this is a fairly unique situation (with one player affecting the spread to such a degree), it's possible that as the week goes on the Texans become much more popular or the line on this game regresses, which would obviously change the equation. But that seems unlikely, so I'm going with the Texans in Week 1.
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