2011 NFL Survivor: Week 11

Last week:

PHI: L, 21-17
BAL: L, 22-17
GB: W, 45-7
SD: L, 24-17
JAX: W, 17-3

I don't know what the record is for most outright losses in a season when favored by >7 points, but the Eagles are gunning for it. That's four.

Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay.

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

New England (vs. Kansas City)

Already used.

San Francisco (vs. Arizona)

The 49ers are a strong pick this week, but I'm going to want to use them at home against the Rams in Week 13.

Detroit (vs. Carolina) Green Bay (vs. Tampa Bay)

Already used.

NY Jets (at Denver)

The Jets are only about 73% to win, but the teams that are more likely to advance also have more future value, so we might have to come back to them.

Dallas (at Washington)

Another solid option -- not as likely to win as San Francisco, but a lot less popular. Unfortunately the plan was to use the Cowboys in Week 12, but I may need to revisit that.

Atlanta (vs. Tennessee)
Chicago (vs. San Diego)

Both inferior options to the Jets.

Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati)

The Ravens still host the Colts and Browns, so can't use them here.

I see two viable options here:

• NYJ this week, DAL/ATL/SD next week
• DAL this week, NYJ/ATL/SD next week

The Cowboys are clearly the better option this week, and there's still a lot of uncertainty with the probability/popularity of each team next week, so I'm going with Dallas.