Last week:
DAL: W, 34-7
NO: W, 62-7
BAL: L, 12-7
GB: W, 33-27
Ponder was so close, but 87.3% of OFP ended up advancing to Week 8.
Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Baltimore (vs. Arizona)The Ravens are the biggest favorite available to me this week, but I'd rather not use them unless absolutely necessary. Baltimore isn't absurdly popular, but they are the most frequently selected team, and they continue to have a lot of future value, with home games against the Colts and Browns in the last quarter of the season.
San Francisco (vs. Cleveland)
Not a big fan of the 49ers this week, as they're the second most popular team but only the sixth most likely to actually win.
NY Giants (vs. Miami)
The Giants are about as popular as SF, but are ~82% to win, as opposed to ~79%. New York's remaining home games are against PHI, GB, WAS, and DAL, so there's not a ton of value there.
New Orleans (at St. Louis)
Big road favorites, but I burned them last week. Strong option otherwise.
Tennessee (vs. Indianapolis)
A team that lost by 34 at home last week; now we're talking. Tennessee is very comparable to the Giants for this week after considering the probability/popularity tradeoff; they're a bit less likely to win, but a lot less popular. The Titans are also not an especially good team (only a significant favorite this week because their opponent is truly atrocious), which is a plus from a future value standpoint.
Houston (vs. Jacksonville)
Already used.
Considering all that, I'm going with the Titans this week.
Original Story:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/VegasW...
