Eli Manning and Tony Romo will square off in a star-studded opening night matchup. The Question is who will win?
The start of the NFL season is still months away, but there is something to be said for betting on the NFL before the season starts. In betting circles the word “value” gets thrown around much too often, but this is a perfect example of when it comes into play.
A few weeks ago the NFL lines were released for week one in the NFL and sharp players lined up to take advantage of soft lines posted by the Vegas bookmakers.
It is important to have several sportsbook outlets to bet on the NFL. This is important because the lines fluctuate and you want to get the best line available. For the game in week one between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys, there are several different options.
Online sportsbook Just Bet currently has NYG -3 -125, while other sportsbooks have the same number but offer different moneylines attached: Bet Online NYG -3 -115, Top Bet NYG –3 125, and Hollywood NYG -3 -120. However, if this game was bet when the NFL week one odds were announced there would have been a different option.
The game between the Giants and the Cowboys stood out as one of those games. The line opened with the defending Super bowl champion Giants as four point favorites and the early money came in on Dallas. The early action caused a line shift and the current line can be found at Giants (-3) at most offshore sportsbooks.
This is a valuable lesson for newbie football betting fanatics. Because the sharp players grabbed the Cowboys at +4, it sets them up for a possible middle if the line drops below three. For those that are not familiar with the term “middle” it is basically playing both sides of the game and hoping the number will fall in the middle and pay off big time. With the betting angle and value set aside, it’s time to look at the two teams on the field.
The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions and more often than not, teams that win the Super bowl come out flat the next year. The Giants won a pair of games against their division rivals to include an embarrassing win 31-17 win on national television to end the season for the Cowboys. The biggest problem for the Cowboys against the Giants was on defense.
In the season finale Dallas missed tackles on all three of the Giants’ three first-half touchdowns, failed to recover two fumbles within its grasp and gave up a 74 yard touchdown strike from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz.
Dallas has drastically improved on defense and the changes will be obvious in game one. The Cowboys fixed a leaky secondary by trading up to get the best cornerback in the draft in LSU’s Morris Claiborne and went to the free agent pool to bring in Kansas City Chief defensive back Brandon Carr. DeMarcus Ware will benefit from the additions in the secondary and eh will be let loose to harass the quarterback, which is bad news for Eli Manning.
Changes will be obvious on offense as well. DeMarco Murray did not play in that season finale and he will be back and ready to go. His ability to run will take pressure off quarterback Tony Romo and open up passing lanes. The Giants will have to stack the box and that will allow for one-on-one coverage that players like Dez Bryant will be able to exploit.
The sharp players were smart to get the Cowboys early when the line was at (+4) but I don’t think it will matter as the Cowboys will win this game outright and give the Giants their first loss of the season.
NFL Week One Pick against the spread: Dallas Cowboys (+3 +105, line at Just Bet)
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