2018 NFL player prop bets for Week 2 and beyond

Jon Gruden may be back and "The Black Hole" may be celebrating, but as we learned Monday night, Oakland has a long way to go before Chucky can claim to be a Super Bowl contender once again. In fact, several teams and players overshot their skis Week 1, and our Week 2-and-beyond prop bets seek out those who may come back to Earth and those whose rise is just beginning.

Odds: Over +130 | Under -170

Fitzpatrick shocked the league during Week 1 as he carved up the New Orleans Saints secondary for 417 yards on 21-of-28 passing with four passing touchdowns. However, he won’t repeat the feat in Week 2 against a much more potent Eagles defense. Philadelphia’s pass rush is going to make Fitz much more uncomfortable in the pocket. The Eagles sacked Matt Ryan four times last week and held him without a touchdown pass, and he completed less than 50 percent of his passes. To hinder Fitzpatrick’s odds even more, DeSean Jackson is questionable due to a concussion. The veteran receiver accounted for 146 of Fitz’s passing yards and two of his four touchdowns.

The Bet: UNDER

Here's a sneaky Week 2 prop bet play. Against the Lions, Enunwa caught six passes for 63 yards on a team-high 10 targets. Before missing all of 2017 due to a neck injury, the fourth-year receiver out of Nebraska quietly put together a solid 2016 campaign when he caught 58 passes for 857 yards with four touchdowns. He finished that season with nine games of 50 or more yards.

The Pick: OVER

For a second consecutive week, Colts running back Marlon Mack remained limited in practice as he works his way back from a hamstring injury. Without him against the Bengals, Indy's rush attack was paltry. Luck completed 39-of-53 passes for 319 yards as he tried to rally the troops late. With how well Washington's defense played at Arizona in Week 1, the same scenario could play out at FedEx Field. The Redskins held Sam Bradford to 153 yards on 20-of-34 passing. At his best, Luck is five times the quarterback Bradford is and because I believe the Redskins will build a big lead early, the Colts quarterback will be forced to rally back via the pass again.

The Pick: OVER

Peterson finished with 26 rush attempts against the Cardinals. That's far too many for the 33-year-old running back. His average of 3.7 yards per rush shows the burst isn't completely there, which will matter as the season plays out, but it's a stat you can ignore against the Colts rush defense. Indy allowed a spry Joe Mixon to rush 17 times for 95 yards in Week 1. So if A.P. averages the same 3.7 yards per rush, he'll need only 17 carries to hit this OVER.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Over -150 | Under +110

The Nathan Peterman experiment was fun while it lasted. Wait! No, it wasn’t! Enter Allen, the rookie quarterback out of Wyoming, who will make his first career start this Sunday against the visiting Chargers. He finished 6-of-15 for 74 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in mop-up duty Week 1 at Baltimore. Los Angeles was torched by another "rookie" quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, Week 1, but the Chiefs trigger has a weapon Allen doesn’t: the speedy Tyreek Hill. Without Hill, Mahomes completed only 8-of-19 passes for 87 yards with two touchdowns. The Chargers secondary finished third against the pass last season with more interceptions, 18, than touchdowns allowed, 17.

The Bet: OVER

Odds: Yes +400 | No -700

Hill hauled in a 58-yard catch-and-run-away touchdown against the Chargers in Week 1. He personally recorded game-long receptions of 75, 64, 56, 79, 44, 64, and 52 yards, respectively, last season. He can outrun the fastest defensive backs. While the Steelers secondary isn’t horrible, Pro Football Focus does indicate Hill has a favorable matchup opposite Mike Hilton. However, it may come down to Patrick Mahomes’ comfort in the pocket as T.J. Watt, who finished with three sacks last week, will bring pressure. Still, too much juice on “no.”

The Bet: YES (or fade)

Derek Carr targeted Cook a career-high 12 times Monday night, and the tight end caught nine of them for 180 yards. It'll be interesting to see how Cook's role evolves into Week 2 because for as good as the Broncos defense has been and currently is, it's struggled to slow down opposing tight ends. While I'd be shocked to see Cook post 65-plus receiving yards this week, it wouldn't surprise me if he finished with five or more targets.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Yes -2500 | No +800

Only the Browns would end a losing streak with a tie. It’s in their DNA since returning to Cleveland in 1999. However, this team does appear different with Myles Garrett rushing the passer and first-round pick Denzel Ward roaming the secondary. It’ll come down to Tyrod Taylor and/or Baker Mayfield to put enough points on the board to earn that coveted win. Their best shots at a “W” this season are Week 3 vs. the Jets, Week 4 at the Raiders, home against the Ravens Week 5, at the Bengals late November, at the Texans or their home game against the Ravens. As we saw with the Jets at Detroit Monday night, anything can happen any given Sunday, Monday or Thursday. However, this Browns team is destined to win at least one game this season.

Question is: Are you willing to risk $2,500 to win $100?

The Bet: YES

Odds: Mahomes -175 Smith +135

What jumps out here is Adrian Peterson’s age. Granted, he had a remarkable Week 1 performance against his former team. However, he can’t sustain a workload of 20-plus carries week in and week out. So I do expect Smith to pass a little more as the season progresses. If Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson can stay healthy, Smith’s efficiency and precision passing will rule the day. It's Smith vs. a green quarterback in Mahomes, who is expected to experience some ups and downs. Aside from his connection with Tyreek Hill, the second-year quarterback wasn't very good against the Chargers.

The Pick: Smith

In Cleveland's wet and soggy Week 1 conditions, Brown still managed to catch nine passes on 16 (!!) targets. Here's the thing: The Chiefs secondary is worse than the Browns. Kansas City's defensive backs allowed four Chargers to finish with five or more receptions. Philip Rivers' top target, Keenan Allen, finished with eight catches for 108 yards. Brown will blow by this O/U threshold as the Steelers look to gain back some of the pride they lost when they tied the Browns.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Week 2-8 (+160) | Weeks 9-17 (+210) | Doesn’t play (EVEN)

If the Cowboys offense looks as lethargic as it did in Week 1 at Carolina, don’t be shocked to see Dez return to America’s Team. Bryant and Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones were spotted in public earlier this week. The other favorite to land the veteran receiver is New England, which just inked Corey Coleman, who the Buffalo Bills didn’t want, and Bennie Fowler. The Pats are looking for upgrades at receiver with Julian Edelman suspended, but I do believe they’d only sign Dez at a discounted rate.

The Pick: Week 2-8

Odds: Hue Jackson (+260) | Dirk Koetter (+450) | Sean McDermott (+500)

The 1-31-1 cloud hanging over Hue Jackson’s head isn’t dissipating anytime soon. His record over the past two seasons and one game is why he’s the heavy favorite to receive a pink slip from owner Jimmy Haslam. While the Browns may have improved, they’re still no better than a four-to-five win team this season. Is that enough to save Jackson’s behind? Probably not.

The Pick: Hue (+260)

Odds: T.J. -240 J.J +165

T.J. Watt finished with seven sacks in 15 regular-season games last season. After sacking Tyrod Taylor three times in Week 1 at soggy Cleveland, the younger Watt brother is on pace for 48. Before missing 24 games over the previous two seasons due to injury, J.J. Watt averaged more than 17 sacks per season from 2012-2016. With no sacks of Tom Brady in Week 1, the elder Watt is in a 3-0 hole. The Texans secondary is banged up and understaffed, which means opposing quarterbacks may go to the air more often than they would if Houston’s defensive backs were at full health. This presents an opportunity for J.J. to pressure the quarterback more often than his brother. Though it sounds weird in this case, I like the heavy underdog, J.J. Watt.

The Pick: J.J. Watt

Odds: Darnold (+135) | Saquan (+175)

The 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is a two-dog race after the first week. If not for Darnold’s impressive showing at Detroit on Monday night, Saquon Barkley would be the overwhelming favorite. The Giants rookie running back rushed 18 times for 106 yards with a 68-yard touchdown against the Jaguars in Week 1. The Jets rookie trigger out of USC completed 16-of-21 passes for 198 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Due to the Giants’ offensive line woes, my faith in Barkley to produce over the next 16 weeks is reeling. Quarterbacks typically get the benefit of the doubt during award season and with Baker Mayfield holding a clipboard in Cleveland, for now, Darnold is my favorite to win OROY.

 The Pick: Darnold

Odds: Patriots (+600) vs. Value Plays

Because New England plays in an uber-weak division and in the weaker of the two conferences, they’re always going to be a favorite until further notice. However, the competitive NFC has several teams that present great value over the Pats despite possessing worse odds. Worse for them means better value for you. You have to like what the Vikings have built in Minnesota with the addition of Kirk Cousins paired with a top-tier defense. At 8-to-1 odds, backing Minnesota is a wise investment.

The Pick: Vikings (+800)