2-Point Conversion: Bucs vs. Panthers For NFC South Title

Brady was getting outplayed by third-stringer Trace McSorley, while throwing two bad interceptions to Arizona defensive back Marco Wilson, as Tampa Bay trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Then Brady was forced to revert back to the only thing that has worked reliably well on offense this year – the two-minute, no-huddle attack.

Brady said “Yippe-ki-yay,” went 6-of-6 for 69 yards in overtime to beat the bad guys and save Christmas night for the 7-8 Bucs, who remain one game ahead of the 6-9 Panthers for the lead in the NFC South.

Then Brady hopped into the limo with Argyle and drove back to Tampa. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night – right?

Actually Brady and the Bucs hopped on a plane for a long ride home where they’ll have to figure out how to stop the Panthers’ vaunted ground game this week.

Now it’s on to the Carolina game this Sunday, which is essentially a playoff game for Tampa Bay. A win over the Panthers and the Bucs win the NFC South division title and earn a trip to the postseason. A loss to the Panthers means a tie for the division lead with both teams at 7-9 and Carolina having the tiebreaker advantage due to sweeping Tampa Bay.

The Bucs would then have to beat the Falcons in Atlanta and hope the Panthers lose to the Saints in New Orleans in the 2022 season finale.

“It always means something when you’re playing for something at the end of the year,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “You want to be playing December football. You want to play good December football and you want to play meaningful games. Next week, they need it and we need it, so it’s going to be a good battle.”

Carolina has gone 5-5 since Steve Wilks took over as the interim head coach. They’ve won with defense and running the ball – just like the Panthers did in a 21-3 win over the Bucs in Carolina in Week 7. The Panthers ran for 173 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries, led by D’Onta Foreman’s 118 yards and Chubba Hubbard’s 63 yards.

In a 37-23 dismantling of 7-8 Detroit on Christmas Eve, Carolina rushed for 320 yards and three touchdowns on 43 carries. Both Foreman and Hubbard rushed for 109 yards apiece in the first half as the Panthers built a 24-7 lead.

Tampa Bay held Arizona to just 16 points on Sunday night, but allowed 121 yards on the ground, led by James Conner’s 79 yards, including a 22-yard touchdown run. In order to beat Carolina, Tampa Bay will have to try to take away the Panthers’ desire to run and make them beat Tampa Bay with Sam Darnold’s arm.

That’s easier said than done, especially when it would take a lot of points by the offense to build a big lead to force the Panthers to throw the ball. Tampa Bay had a 17-point lead against Cincinnati two weeks ago, but blew it with four straight turnovers in the second half in a 34-23 loss.

Brady turned the ball over two more times in Arizona with a pair of interceptions. He’ll have to leave his turnovers in 2022 and play perfect this Sunday for the Bucs to beat the Panthers and ring in the New Year with a win in 2023 – and another division title.

Yippy-ki-yay.

STATEMENT 2: Bucs Takeaways Save The Day

Turnovers have been hard to come by this year for Todd Bowles’ defense. Last year while the Bucs went 13-4, the defense picked off 17 passes, forced 17 fumbles and recovered 12. Their 29 takeaways last year versus 19 giveaways gave the Bucs a plus-10 turnover margin, which ranked fifth best in the NFL.

It’s been a different story this season, as the Bucs have the sixth worst turnover margin in the league at minus-4 with two games left. Tampa Bay has already turned it over 20 times, which is more than either the 2020 (17) or 2021 (19) seasons. Tampa Bay has only 16 takeaways in 2022, and three of them came in Sunday night’s win at Arizona.

Bucs Turnover Margins 2020-22
2020: Plus-8 (25 takeaways, 17 giveaways) fourth best
2021: Plus-10 (29 takeaways, 19 giveaways) fifth best
2022: Minus-4 (16 takeaways, 20 giveaways) sixth worst

Outside linebacker Anthony Nelson had a strip-sack of Trace McSorley deep in Tampa Bay territory to prevent an Arizona score. Linebacker Devin White recovered the fumble.

Then the biggest turnover came with the Bucs trailing by three points, as defensive lineman Will Gholston fell on a fumbled pitch. That allowed Tampa Bay to drive down and tie the game at 16-16.

An interception by safety Keanu Neal prevented a Hail Mary touchdown and sent the game to overtime where Tampa Bay won, 19-16. Those three takeaways helped offset Tom Brady’s two interceptions and aided the Bucs winning the turnover margin, 3:2. The Bucs haven’t won the turnover margin nearly enough this year, and that has contributed mightily to the team’s 7-8 record.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Are The Bucs A Bad Team Or Just A Mediocre Team?

Many Bucs fans think their team is a bad team because of its sub-.500 record. There’s no doubt the Bucs have underachieved this year, losing some games they should’ve won, and coming out victorious in games they’ve been lucky to win. But are the Bucs bad – or just mediocre? Let’s take a look.

Two of the Bucs’ “bad” losses this year came in back-to-back weeks at Pittsburgh and at Carolina. Both teams only had one win at the time, while Tampa Bay had three. But now the Steelers and Bucs are both 7-8, and the Panthers are 6-9 and still in the hunt for the NFC South crown, going 5-5 over the last 10 games under Steve Wilks. So those “bad” losses look a little better now.

As it turns out, Tampa Bay is currently one of nine teams in the NFL with a 7-8 record. That’s nearly one-third of the league.

In fact, 11 out of 16 teams in the NFC don’t have winning records, including 7-7-1 Washington. In the AFC it’s 10 out of 16 teams without a winning record.

TEAMS WITH NON-WINNING RECORDS
 
NFC East
Commanders 7-7-1
 
NFC North
Lions 7-8
Packers 7-8
Bears 3-12


NFC South
Buccaneers 7-8
Panthers 6-9
Saints 6-9
Falcons 5-10
 
NFC West
Seahawks 7-8
Rams 5-10
Cardinals 4-11
 
AFC East
Patriots 7-8
Jets 7-8

AFC North
Steelers 7-8
Browns 6-9
 
AFC South
Jaguars 7-8
Titans 7-8
Colts 4-10-1
Texans 2-12-1
 
AFC West
Raiders 6-9
Broncos 4-11

That means 21 out of the 32 NFL teams don’t have winning records with two weeks left to play. The NFL has always wanted a parity league where most fans are engaged in the playoff push for the entire season, and this year has been the perfect example of that. Heading into Week 17 there are only five teams with double-digit losses, and two divisions – the NFC South and AFC South – have yet to have a division winner.

So the Bucs’ 7-8 record probably means they are a mediocre team given the rest of the league’s records. They’ll have a chance to finish with either a good record (9-8) or a bad record (7-10) depending on how they finish the season.

QUESTION 2: Will The Bucs Be Healthy Enough To Beat The Panthers?

Maybe. The Bucs’ chances of beating the Panthers could come down to who’s actually available for Sunday’s game. Tampa Bay lost Josh Wells, who started three games at right tackle for Tristan Wirfs before starting Sunday night’s game at Arizona at left tackle for the injured Donovan Smith. Wells tore his patellar tendon and is out for the season. The Bucs need Smith to play because third-stringer Brandon Walton struggled replacing Wells at Arizona.

And Walton may have to be ready to play some right tackle. Wirfs returned to action on Sunday night, but re-aggravated his sprained left ankle during the game. The status of Wirfs and Smith might not be known until later in the week, but the Bucs have to really hope that both tackles can go and play the entire game. Panthers Pro Bowl pass rusher Brian Burns has 12.5 sacks, and can rush from either side.

Tampa Bay is also thin at outside linebacker where the team has gotten away from dressing just two players – Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Anthony Nelson – on game days. The Bucs have been without Shaq Barrett (Achilles) for half the season, and lost reserves Carl Nassib (pectoral) and Genard Avery (abdomen/oblique) against San Francisco.

Tampa Bay’s backup plan if Tryon-Shoyinka and/or Nelson need a breather or get injured is to borrow Devin White or Lavonte David from the linebacker level and use them as obvious pass rushers, or use defensive linemen Patrick O’Connor and Logan Hall on the edge on run downs. Head coach Todd Bowles has also used Will Gholston and Akiem Hicks on the edge for a play or two in a pinch.

Speaking of the defensive line, Tampa Bay sure could use the return of nose tackle Vita Vea to help stop the Carolina run game. The Panthers ran for 173 yards and a touchdown, averaging 6.4 yards per carry in a 21-3 win back in Week 7. In last week’s 37-23 win over Detroit, Carolina ran for 320 yards with both D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard having 109 yards rushing at halftime.

Having Vea back would be a big boost to Tampa Bay’s run defense. The defensive tackle injured his calf at San Francisco and has missed the last two games. His status won’t be known until later in the week as well.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Bucs Beat The Panthers

It’s all on the line this week for the Bucs. I have to believe Tom Brady plays better with so much riding on this game. He has to avoid turnovers against the Panthers as he did back in Week 7. And the fact that the Bucs defense recorded three takeaways in Arizona could mean there is more in store, as turnovers can come in bunches.

Bucs fans have been great this year at Ray-Jay, even when the team hasn’t given them a lot to cheer about. I suspect the crowd will be electric with the NFC South title and a home playoff game at stake. In essence, this will be a playoff game – and the Bucs fans will bring that playoff atmosphere on Sunday afternoon.

PREDICTION 2: Bowles Returns As Bucs Head Coach In 2022

A win on Sunday against Carolina means three straight playoff berths for the Bucs, which hasn’t happened very often in Tampa Bay. In fact, the longest playoff streak the Bucs have had was a four-year run from 1999-2002 between the Tony Dungy (1999-2001) and Jon Gruden (2002) years.

Winning the division title in his first year as head coach also ensures Todd Bowles’ return in 2022. Bowles has been a part of the playoff run since the 2020 when he served as the team’s defensive coordinator. He might elect to keep calling the plays in 2023 as his defense has been the main reason why they are still in the playoff hunt. But there almost certainly will be a new offensive coordinator next year, as Byron Leftwich has to be replaced.