The Bottom Line: A weaker line plus greater attention from opposing defenses means LJ will post nearer to 1400 yards rather than 2400 yards.
For the record, I'm a big LJ fan. Nasty north-south runner, runs with aggression, loves the contact, very fun to watch. Seriously, like not just saying that to soften the blow, I'd love to watch this guy break 2G.
That said...
even a stud like LJ needs a lane to get to the second and third levels of defense where he can apply his ability to punish tacklers.
When any offense returns only 3 of 5 starting offensive linemen, there should be concerns about that group's productivity. When one of the guys missing is a future Hall-of-Famer with 11 Pro Bowl trips ( Willie Roaf), those concerns should increase. When one of the remaining 3 has an ankle injury ( Will Shields), those concerns should further increase. When the starting fullback (Tony Richardson) that used to work with that group is lost to the vikings... When one of the replacement lineman ( Kyle Turley) has serious back issues.... When a new coaching staff is implemented in the same year... well, you're starting to get the idea, this is NOT the same situation under which LJ flashed the Arrowhead Symbol for a ridiculous 1350 yards in 9 games.
I will concede that KC did a great job dealing with the loss of Roaf for 6-7 games last year. And I believe they would've been able to do that again this year if they had the rest of the supporting cast. Instead, here's what they're dealing with, this list compares last year's crew to this year's crew:
T John Welbourne (retired)
G Brian Waters (pro bowler, just back from foot injury)
C Casey Wiegmann
G Will Shields (pro bowler, high ankle sprain)
T Willie Roaf (pro bowler, retired)
FB Tony Richardson (pro bowler, gone to Vikings)
TE Tony Gonzalez (pro bowler obviously)
TE Jason Dunn
The new crew (assuming all are healthy):
T Kyle Turley (idle past two seasons with back problems)
G Brian Waters (7 yrs exp)
C Casey Wiegmann (11 yrs exp)
G Will Shields (14 yrs exp)
T Kevin Sampson (3rd year player, played in 10 games)
FB Ronnie Cruz (second year back from Northern State DII)
TE Tony Gonzalez (10 yrs exp)
TE Jason Dunn (10 yrs exp)
I added the years of experience to show that this is an aging group. Even if they're all healthy this isn't as good as last year's line. Sampson actually looks like a solid prospect who could help fill shoes and add some youth but those shoes are pretty large right now. Problem is LJ has raised the bar and every defensive coordinator is working to stymie his production first and foremost. KC plays about ten teams with solid run defense, so unless they're in St. Louis for sunday, there won't be too many walks in the park. Oh by the way, that also means expect Tony G. and Dunn to spend their time helping that line to block rather than catching balls.
I'm figuring LJ to be productive but "normal" productive, not 2400 yard-pace productive. Chain sez: 1450 (hard-fought) yards and 11-14 TD's. Don't get me wrong, 1400-plus is a great year, the only issue is those are Rudi Johnson numbers. If you blew your first, second or third pick on Rudi, as strong as he is, people would have you get your head examined. I realize that LJ is THE hot pick this year but don't do what Reggie Bush did, if you pick him up with the 2nd overall pick you'll be kicking yourself when 12 guys outperform him his year. -word
For the record, I'm a big LJ fan. Nasty north-south runner, runs with aggression, loves the contact, very fun to watch. Seriously, like not just saying that to soften the blow, I'd love to watch this guy break 2G.
That said...
even a stud like LJ needs a lane to get to the second and third levels of defense where he can apply his ability to punish tacklers.
When any offense returns only 3 of 5 starting offensive linemen, there should be concerns about that group's productivity. When one of the guys missing is a future Hall-of-Famer with 11 Pro Bowl trips ( Willie Roaf), those concerns should increase. When one of the remaining 3 has an ankle injury ( Will Shields), those concerns should further increase. When the starting fullback (Tony Richardson) that used to work with that group is lost to the vikings... When one of the replacement lineman ( Kyle Turley) has serious back issues.... When a new coaching staff is implemented in the same year... well, you're starting to get the idea, this is NOT the same situation under which LJ flashed the Arrowhead Symbol for a ridiculous 1350 yards in 9 games.
I will concede that KC did a great job dealing with the loss of Roaf for 6-7 games last year. And I believe they would've been able to do that again this year if they had the rest of the supporting cast. Instead, here's what they're dealing with, this list compares last year's crew to this year's crew:
T John Welbourne (retired)
G Brian Waters (pro bowler, just back from foot injury)
C Casey Wiegmann
G Will Shields (pro bowler, high ankle sprain)
T Willie Roaf (pro bowler, retired)
FB Tony Richardson (pro bowler, gone to Vikings)
TE Tony Gonzalez (pro bowler obviously)
TE Jason Dunn
The new crew (assuming all are healthy):
T Kyle Turley (idle past two seasons with back problems)
G Brian Waters (7 yrs exp)
C Casey Wiegmann (11 yrs exp)
G Will Shields (14 yrs exp)
T Kevin Sampson (3rd year player, played in 10 games)
FB Ronnie Cruz (second year back from Northern State DII)
TE Tony Gonzalez (10 yrs exp)
TE Jason Dunn (10 yrs exp)
I added the years of experience to show that this is an aging group. Even if they're all healthy this isn't as good as last year's line. Sampson actually looks like a solid prospect who could help fill shoes and add some youth but those shoes are pretty large right now. Problem is LJ has raised the bar and every defensive coordinator is working to stymie his production first and foremost. KC plays about ten teams with solid run defense, so unless they're in St. Louis for sunday, there won't be too many walks in the park. Oh by the way, that also means expect Tony G. and Dunn to spend their time helping that line to block rather than catching balls.
I'm figuring LJ to be productive but "normal" productive, not 2400 yard-pace productive. Chain sez: 1450 (hard-fought) yards and 11-14 TD's. Don't get me wrong, 1400-plus is a great year, the only issue is those are Rudi Johnson numbers. If you blew your first, second or third pick on Rudi, as strong as he is, people would have you get your head examined. I realize that LJ is THE hot pick this year but don't do what Reggie Bush did, if you pick him up with the 2nd overall pick you'll be kicking yourself when 12 guys outperform him his year. -word
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