A way-too-early look at 2024 Super Bowl potential of AFC teams

Free agency won't begin until March 13 and the draft in Detroit follows on April 25, so teams have significant roster moves to make before the 2024 season begins in September. That hasn't stopped Yardbarker NFL writers from evaluating the Super Bowl potential of all 16 AFC teams. (2023 regular-season records are in parenthesis.)

AFC East 

BUFFALO BILLS (11-6) | SB potential: Always in the mix | Although the Bills will be perennial contenders as long as Josh Allen is at quarterback, it's clear the roster must be revamped after getting bounced out of the playoffs by the Chiefs again. Buffalo established a run-first identity late in the season and must design its 2024 roster with players who fit that style long term, which should include cutting ties with WR Stefon Diggs this offseason. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-6) | SB potential: If health permits | The Dolphins will spend 2024 fighting to shed the "pretender" label after a dismal showing in the wild-card round, but if their defense is healthy come playoff time, Miami will have a shot at the Super Bowl. Miami's defense was decimated by season's end, but the unit only allowed the 10th-fewest yards per game (318.3), so if edge-rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips can bounce back, the team will be well-positioned to contend for a title. 

NEW YORK JETS (7-10) | SB potential: If the 40-year-old QB rebounds | Despite averaging the second-fewest yards (268.6) and fourth-fewest points per game (15.8) this season, the Jets still won seven games, thanks in large part to their defense, which allowed the third-fewest total yards (4,969). QB Aaron Rodgers probably won't return to MVP-level form — especially since he averaged just 217.4 passing yards per game in 2022 — but the future Hall of Famer has the supporting cast to make a deep playoff run. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-13) | SB potential: Don’t even think about it | Coming off the seventh-worst season in franchise history (4-13) and the head-coaching change from Bill Belichick to first-year man Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have a long rebuilding process ahead of them. On the bright side, New England has an exciting starting point as it holds the third-most projected cap space among teams ($66.1M) and the No. 3 overall pick in April's NFL Draft. — Colum Dell

AFC West 

DENVER BRONCOS (8-9) | SB potential: Mile-high climb | The Broncos must enter rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season. Denver will likely release quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason and draft his replacement; ESPN’s Jordan Reid recently predicted they’ll take Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy with the 12th overall pick. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-6) | SB potential: Can anyone say "dynasty"? | The Chiefs have made four Super Bowls since 2018 and became the first team to repeat as champions since the 2004 New England Patriots. Superstar QB Patrick Mahomes is only 28, so K.C.’s Super Bowl window remains wide open.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (8-9) | SB potential: Ask again later | Rookie head coach Antonio Pierce — who went 5-4 while he served as an interim HC — showed he has what it takes to succeed in the league. However, the Raiders still don’t have the answer at QB, as rookie Aidan O’Connell threw for 12 TDs (and seven interceptions) and posted a below-average 40.6 QBR in 11 games. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-12) | SB potential: High-voltage Harbaugh makes it possible | New HC Jim Harbaugh — the 2011 NFL Coach of the Year with the 49ers— should re-energize the franchise after a disappointing season. The Chargers have a solid roster, which includes star QB Justin Herbert and safety Derwin James Jr., who should thrive with a proven HC. — Clark Dalton

AFC North

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4) | SB potential: Run it back? | The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL with MVP-favorite Lamar Jackson and one of the best defenses in the league. With Jackson locked up for the foreseeable future, Baltimore has a good chance to hoist a Vince Lombardi Trophy — especially if Jackson finally plays well in the playoffs.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-6) | SB potential: Depends on Deshaun | The Browns had the best defense in total yards allowed per game (270.2) this season, but even that didn’t prove to be enough. Cleveland needs QB Deshaun Watson to finally put it all together in his third season with the team or it will come up short once again.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-8) | SB potential: The window is always open | In 2023, QB Joe Burrow told reporters the Bengals’ Super Bowl window is his entire career in Cincinnati. The No. 1 overall pick in 2020 has led his team to two AFC title games and a Super Bowl appearance in the past four seasons. If he's healthy, why should 2024 be any different?

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-7) | SB potential: At least another winning season | Head coach Mike Tomlin increased his consecutive non-losing seasons streak to 17 this season, and there’s no reason he can’t make it 18 in 2024. However, with major questions at quarterback, the Steelers will likely fall short of the playoffs or be one-and-done for the eighth straight season. — Aaron Becker

AFC South 

HOUSTON TEXANS (10-7) | SB potential: Right on the doorstep | As long as C.J. Stroud is the QB, Houston will be a perennial playoff team, but GM Nick Caserio must build a championship team around him. If Houston gives Stroud a competent running back, better blocking and more pass-rush help, the team could shock some people and make a deep playoff run. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-8) | SB potential: Not quite there | Getting a full season from a healthy Anthony Richardson will be a big upgrade from Gardner Minshew, but the Colts are more than just a piece or two from competing for a Super Bowl. The playoffs might be a realistic possibility, but Indy must add more weapons in the passing game and shore up its front seven before it thinks about chasing a ring.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-8) | SB potential: Disappointment for Duval | The Jags were division champs two seasons ago and just missed out on the playoffs this season, but their current coaching staff doesn’t exactly scream championship-caliber. Trevor Lawrence didn’t take a step forward in his development, the defense still needs some work and the Jaguars are no closer to competing for a Super Bowl in 2024 than they were when they made it to the AFC Championship game in 2017. 

TENNESSEE TITANS (6-11) | SB potential: It’d take a Music City Miracle | With a second-year GM, a first-year head coach (Brian Callahan), a second-year QB (Will Levis), no Derrick Henry and one of the worst rosters in the NFL, the Titans are years away from competing for anything. Unless Levis has a Stroud-like Year 2 and Tyjae Spears is Henry 2.0, Tennessee will be lucky to match its 2023 record. — Michael Gallagher