Are the 2024 Chicago Bears Super Bowl Contenders?

To be fair, Wright does heavily qualify his assertion, saying he's only "flirting" with the idea of Williams leading the Bears to the Super Bowl in his rookie season. While Wright's take is jarring and intentionally attention-grabbing, he brings up a few solid points about the Bears' upcoming season.

The Bears have the third-easiest projected 2024 schedule and don't have a divisional game until Week 11. The start of the season includes the Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Arizona Cardinals, who are all expected to have below-average seasons. These two factors, Wright claims, give Williams a "tailor-made start to his career" and could allow the highly touted quarterback and the Bears to get off to a hot start.

Wright is correct in saying that rookie quarterbacks can succeed in the playoffs. Last season, Houston Texans star C.J. Stroud led his team to a playoff win over the Cleveland Browns to advance to the Divisional Round. In 2022, Brock Purdy led the San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship game. Rookie quarterbacks have attained postseason success, and it's far from uncommon for first-year signal-callers to lead their team to a playoff berth.

However, Stroud and Purdy represent outliers in the rookie landscape. Since 2010, there have been only four rookie quarterbacks to win a playoff game. C.J. Stroud (Texans, 2023), Brock Purdy (49ers, 2022), Russel Wilson (Seahawks, 2012), and T.J. Yates (Texans, 2011) are among the group. Of these four quarterbacks, Purdy is the only one to record multiple playoff wins (2).

Additionally, Stroud was the only quarterback drafted in the first round and the only one to head into an objectively poor situation (from a roster standpoint). The 49ers were 10-7 in 2021, the Seahawks were 7-9 in 2011, and the Texans were 6-10 in 2010. Purdy, Wilson, and Yates all entered relatively average or above-average situations.

Like Purdy, Wilson, and Yates, Williams jumps into an above-average situation with the Bears, who went 7-10 last season and have significantly improved their offensive talent this offseason.

When looking for a historical comparison, it's not Stroud that we should consider, but Russell Wilson and the 2012 Seahawks. The 2011 Seahawks went 7-9 and had five players selected to the Pro Bowl (all returned in 2012). Wilson was selected in the third round (75th overall) of the 2012 draft. While that differs from Williams, who was selected first overall, both the Bears and the Seahawks were able to upgrade at quarterback while maintaining a solid roster elsewhere.

Super Bears, Super Bowl?

Using these historical comparisons and what we know regarding the upcoming season, it's fair to say that Caleb Williams and the Bears reaching the Super Bowl in 2024 is a stretch. The NFC is a top-heavy conference with standout teams like the 49ers, Lions, and Eagles, as well as emerging powers in the Packers and the Rams. The NFC North also projects to be one of the strongest divisions in the NFL.

However, the Bears' road to the playoffs appears to be promising. The 2024 schedule opens the door for the Bears to a 10-win season. It's reasonable to expect a playoff berth for the Bears, but a Super Bowl appearance is a different beast. Rosters ready to make a deep playoff push must be loaded from top to bottom, and the Bears currently are not such a team.

Who knows though? It's still early in the offseason. What we project for the 2024 season and what happens can be vastly different. Few projected the Texans and C.J. Stroud to have the success that they had, and we may be discounting the Bears for who they are.

If Wright is correct, Williams would become the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl (as a starter) in NFL history. Here's to hoping Nick Wright is, well, right.